Oh yeah, I agree about the contract year but running through Baseball Forecaster (really focusing on the top 250 or so players...), I saw a bunch of guys all of whom were involved in pennant races last year, who seemed to have jumps up statistically from where their xBA should have been w/ all the other factors during the second half. This made me think "hmmm, even if they don't WIN the pennant, if I could project those players more likely to get THAT kind of boost from the heightened competition of a pennant race next year, that could be a big help..."
I'm probably in the minority, but I think Beltre is closer to the player he was in 2004 than his other years. I think he put it all together and his move to Seattle affected him personally (he was in the Dodgers organization since he was 16) and he needs to adjust.
I think Beltre's numbers will improve a lot this year.
You have no frame of reference, Donny. You're like a child who walks into the middle of a movie...
On that list, specifically I think Schmidt is going to have a return to his 04 numbers, because he isn't as bad as he was last year. Remember, this was a guy who was pretty much the #3 pitcher in fantasy going into last year. He struggled through some injuries and just bad play, and I think he has a bounceback at a value position.