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Postby RAmst23 » Sat Feb 04, 2006 1:51 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
RAmst23 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:These rankings and values are based on 2005 stats, not 2006 projected stats.

As for the magazine, save your $. They project Soriano to hit .282 with 90+ rbis and runs in RFK.


The magazine isn't terrible, though you do have to adjust some of their rankings.

A 90 RBI season for Soriano isn't that far off the mark IMO. Now, the .282 avg and the 34 HRs they think he's going to hit is a little wrong. My projections for Soriano have him producing a 25/25 season with a .260 AVG, 90 runs and 90 RBIs.


I think you need to check that run and rbi projection against a good team run projection for the Nats. Last year they scored fewer just 639 runs, and it's impossible for any player on a team scoring that many runs to get 90 runs or rbis. This year, they may score slightly more, but it's doubtful they'll get over 700 runs. That makes it very, very difficult for a player with an OBP like Soriano to get 90 runs or rbis.


Soriano is going to hit around 25 HRs and slug about .500, I think these numbers will get him 90 RBIs. I might agree with you on the 90 Runs talk, seeing that as a Yankee in 2004 he only scored 77 in 2004. Even with that, I'd still predict an 80 Run season with 90 RBIs and 25/25 stats. Doesn't make him a first rounder, but depending on how much you believe in Utley, I could see someone drafting Soriano before him.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:39 pm

RAmst23 wrote:Soriano is going to hit around 25 HRs and slug about .500, I think these numbers will get him 90 RBIs. I might agree with you on the 90 Runs talk, seeing that as a Yankee in 2004 he only scored 77 in 2004. Even with that, I'd still predict an 80 Run season with 90 RBIs and 25/25 stats. Doesn't make him a first rounder, but depending on how much you believe in Utley, I could see someone drafting Soriano before him.


If he bats fifth, has his usual OBP of .320 or so, and the Nats score under 700 runs, he doesn't havea prayer of getting 80 runs.

90 RBIs is possible if he bats fifth, but it doesn't depend so much on what he does as what Vidro, Zimmerman, Johnson, and Guilen do. If they are healthy and get on base, 90 Rbis is a possibility.
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Postby Phatferd » Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:53 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Phatferd wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:These rankings and values are based on 2005 stats, not 2006 projected stats.

As for the magazine, save your $. They project Soriano to hit .282 with 90+ rbis and runs in RFK.


There isn't much of a history at the stadium to say its such a difficult pitchers park. It very well could be a horrible hitters park, but there isn't much of a history to effect your projections.

This is my opinion at least. I would personally shy away based on last season and the lack of history, however, I don't think its fair to right it off after 81 games.



RFK had ten years as with a park index 94-100 in the 1960s, too. So, we don't just have 81 games, we have almost 900 games indicating that it's a moderate to strong pitching park.



A lot of things are different from the 60s I don't think its fair to compare the 60s to now.

I think you are more than likely correct and that it won't be a hitters haven, however, I don't think we can say that it is for sure a pitchers park.
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Postby Halo Homers » Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:53 pm

If you right click on the players name, you see the 3yr averages and the projection.
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Postby Playoffbound » Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:09 pm

I was just looking at these rankings and found a really weird mistake (atleast I assume it is a mistake unless I missed something). Their 39th ranked catcher is Alfredo Griffin :-?

49 year old Alfredo Griffin? Did I miss something is he waking a comeback with the Jays?
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Postby Halo Homers » Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:24 pm

Playoffbound wrote:I was just looking at these rankings and found a really weird mistake (atleast I assume it is a mistake unless I missed something). Their 39th ranked catcher is Alfredo Griffin :-?

49 year old Alfredo Griffin? Did I miss something is he waking a comeback with the Jays?


________________________________________________________

Very funny LOL. Yes he's the Angels third catcher this year. Stoneman thinks he's a heck of a prospect and refuses to deal him to Boston for Manny.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:51 pm

Phatferd wrote:A lot of things are different from the 60s I don't think its fair to compare the 60s to now.

I think you are more than likely correct and that it won't be a hitters haven, however, I don't think we can say that it is for sure a pitchers park.


But we can compare the park factors of parks that existed in the 1960s (like Fenway) to what they are today. In every case, the parks factors have dropped. So, if anything we would suspect that RFK should be slightly more of a pitvcher's park than it was in the 1960s. And that's exactly how it played last year. I'm not sure how sure you want to be, but I sure wouldn't bet against.

Keep in mind that the reasons why Soriano will see a big drop in runs+rbis is not simply the park. He's switching to the NL from the AL AND he's moving from a good offensive team to a really bad offensive team. Even outside their respective stadiums, Texas was 7th in runs scored, while the Nats were 20th.
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Postby Phatferd » Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:56 pm

I agree totally with you about your expectations of Soriano. The only thing I was making point of was your opinion of RFK. I tend to agree with you about RFK, but I just am not as quick to concede its a very weak hitters park as quickly as you.
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