Ryan Dempster - Stud Closer??

[bmd]

Am I in the minority when I say Dempster could be one of the next stud closers? He didn't start 2005 in that role but after he got the job, they guy was 33 out of 35 in save opportunities. From September 2 through September 30, Dempster saved 13 of 13. The Cubs rewarded him with I believe a three year contract and it's his job to keep. He pitches for a good team so he'll have plenty of opportunities. Most of the rankings that I've read have him pretty low, but I think he's going to have a real good year. Any opinions?

[Dark Knight]

If he stays healthy all season, he will have 40 or more saves.

[bronxxbomber]

I think he'll be fine, but he won't be a stud. He walks to many batters, He'll get the k's and saves, but he'll have a mediocre whip and his era could suffer from it.

[acsguitar]

I might have to stop calling him dumpster

[tal1286]

If you look at my avatar, you can guess what I think. But I think there are statistics to back me up also.

I think he'll probably get a lot of saves. Remember, he didn't even take over the job until mid may so I would guess that he would have had around 40 saves last season and the cubs should be better this season (although some would disagree) so I think he gets around 40. Looking at this era though...as a closer he had 12 ER in 51 innings which comes out to around 2.1. His whip is harder to figure and I'm lazy but it varied a lot last season
may - 1.38
june - 0.84
july - 1.63
august - 1.74
september - 0.96
overall (whole season, including starts) - 1.43
Furthermore, if you look at it, his BABIP was .317, which means he was not really unlucky, but still unlucky to a degree which should help the WHIP and ERA a bit.

I would expect the era to regress a little to around 2.6ish cause not many closers can keep the era at 2 and his whip should definitely be less than his total for the season but I don't expect it to be spectacular. I'd say around 1.1-1.3, improving throughout the season.

Now, I wouldn't be ready to say he's the next rivera even though these numbers seem that way. Those are optimistic guesses from a cubs fan that may or may not be reasonable.

[Another Blown Save]

I just can't trust a Cubs' closer.

[bmd]

As far as concerns regarding Dempster and walking batters, I believe he walked only 27 batters after he got the job sometime around May 11th through the end of the season. Most of his walks came prior to that - April 6 through May 9th. He walked 22 during that span. I think that he settled into the role nicely last season and he could put up some real good numbers this season.