brandnew wrote:.500 for the Braves? I'm not even going to comment, that's awful...
I think the big issue for the Braves is the Mazzone effect and the back end of the rotation. ZiPS did include an upward adjustment in all Braves pitcher ERAs due to the loss of Leo. And, I have a hard time believing they'll get anything close to league average ERA out of the back two slots in the rotation. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if both of those slots ended the year with an ERA >5.00
They only won 90 games last year. If the loss of Leo and the performance of the backline starters and relievers costs them 60-90 runs, they are a .500 team.
Umm... Smoltz is Smoltz, he didn't need Leo. Hudson and Leo didn't get along at all, he was hurt, and he was bad when he pitched. Thomson was hurt and horrendous last season, I don't see how he can be much worse at all. Sosa is the casualty of Leo, he's going to be bad in the rotation, IMO. Davies was horrible last year as well, I don't see how losing Leo would make him WORSE... just the fact that it's his second year in the league should make him better. What part are you saying is the bad backend of the rotation? I agree that HoRam is horrible, but Sosa IMO will be at least league average at the #5 spot. Davies is a very very promising young rookie that a lot of people like. He knows how to pitch, and did before he met Leo.
There's a lot of fuss coming out that a lot of the pitchers didn't like working with Leo, especially the new younger ones.
And, $10 says the bullpen is 10x better than last year... there's no way in hell it can be worse with guys like Bernero and Kolb gone... and Boyer and Devine rested and ready for a full year: Baker, McBride, LeRew, Boyer, Devine, Reitsma, etc. is not a bad bullpen at all, though it lacks a shutdown closer.
PLUS, there's no Mondesi, Jordan; replaced by KJ/Langy/Diaz, and a full year of Francoeur... not to mention player progression from Francoeur, McCann, LaRoche, Giles, the LF Platoon, and Chipper potentially healthy for a full year... I'm still struggling to see how this team will regress at all without ridiculous amount of injuries. The backend of the rotation which you think is a weakness is probably better than 70% of the rest of the league's 4/5. Cost them 60-90 runs? Are you serious? Do you remember Dan KolBB? They won 90 games last year because of ridiculous amount of bad luck injury wise... it's unlikely for that to repeat.
brandnew wrote: Umm... Smoltz is Smoltz, he didn't need Leo. Hudson and Leo didn't get along at all, he was hurt, and he was bad when he pitched. Thomson was hurt and horrendous last season, I don't see how he can be much worse at all. Sosa is the casualty of Leo, he's going to be bad in the rotation, IMO. Davies was horrible last year as well, I don't see how losing Leo would make him WORSE... just the fact that it's his second year in the league should make him better. What part are you saying is the bad backend of the rotation? I agree that HoRam is horrible, but Sosa IMO will be at least league average at the #5 spot. Davies is a very very promising young rookie that a lot of people like. He knows how to pitch, and did before he met Leo.
There's a lot of fuss coming out that a lot of the pitchers didn't like working with Leo, especially the new younger ones.
And, $10 says the bullpen is 10x better than last year... there's no way in hell it can be worse with guys like Bernero and Kolb gone... and Boyer and Devine rested and ready for a full year: Baker, McBride, LeRew, Boyer, Devine, Reitsma, etc. is not a bad bullpen at all, though it lacks a shutdown closer.
PLUS, there's no Mondesi, Jordan; replaced by KJ/Langy/Diaz, and a full year of Francoeur... not to mention player progression from Francoeur, McCann, LaRoche, Giles, the LF Platoon, and Chipper potentially healthy for a full year... I'm still struggling to see how this team will regress at all without ridiculous amount of injuries. The backend of the rotation which you think is a weakness is probably better than 70% of the rest of the league's 4/5. Cost them 60-90 runs? Are you serious? Do you remember Dan KolBB? They won 90 games last year because of ridiculous amount of bad luck injury wise... it's unlikely for that to repeat.
I don't think the offense will regress, although...
Francouer is not going to duplicate last year's performance
I'm not sure why we'd expect a 28 year old Giles to progress.
And, you may get more games, but you won't get as high a level of production from Chipper.
On balance, the offense will be about the same.
The bullpen ERA was only 4.74 last year, which is hardly awful. And, I'm not as confident that they'll improve. There's a TON of BIG ??? in that pen.
The starters had a 3.65 ERA
Add a minimum of 0.75 to Sosa'a ERA.
Neither Smoltz nor Hudson will be as low.
Davies and Ramirez add .5 to their ERAs.
Each spot in the rotation will add 10 to 20 runs.
brandnew wrote: Umm... Smoltz is Smoltz, he didn't need Leo. Hudson and Leo didn't get along at all, he was hurt, and he was bad when he pitched. Thomson was hurt and horrendous last season, I don't see how he can be much worse at all. Sosa is the casualty of Leo, he's going to be bad in the rotation, IMO. Davies was horrible last year as well, I don't see how losing Leo would make him WORSE... just the fact that it's his second year in the league should make him better. What part are you saying is the bad backend of the rotation? I agree that HoRam is horrible, but Sosa IMO will be at least league average at the #5 spot. Davies is a very very promising young rookie that a lot of people like. He knows how to pitch, and did before he met Leo.
There's a lot of fuss coming out that a lot of the pitchers didn't like working with Leo, especially the new younger ones.
And, $10 says the bullpen is 10x better than last year... there's no way in hell it can be worse with guys like Bernero and Kolb gone... and Boyer and Devine rested and ready for a full year: Baker, McBride, LeRew, Boyer, Devine, Reitsma, etc. is not a bad bullpen at all, though it lacks a shutdown closer.
PLUS, there's no Mondesi, Jordan; replaced by KJ/Langy/Diaz, and a full year of Francoeur... not to mention player progression from Francoeur, McCann, LaRoche, Giles, the LF Platoon, and Chipper potentially healthy for a full year... I'm still struggling to see how this team will regress at all without ridiculous amount of injuries. The backend of the rotation which you think is a weakness is probably better than 70% of the rest of the league's 4/5. Cost them 60-90 runs? Are you serious? Do you remember Dan KolBB? They won 90 games last year because of ridiculous amount of bad luck injury wise... it's unlikely for that to repeat.
I don't think the offense will regress, although... Francouer is not going to duplicate last year's performance I'm not sure why we'd expect a 28 year old Giles to progress. And, you may get more games, but you won't get as high a level of production from Chipper. On balance, the offense will be about the same.
The bullpen ERA was only 4.74 last year, which is hardly awful. And, I'm not as confident that they'll improve. There's a TON of BIG ??? in that pen.
The starters had a 3.65 ERA Add a minimum of 0.75 to Sosa'a ERA. Neither Smoltz nor Hudson will be as low. Davies and Ramirez add .5 to their ERAs. Each spot in the rotation will add 10 to 20 runs.
Well we disagree heavily... I have no idea how you think Smoltz and Hudson will not be as low... especially Hudson who had probably his worst year of his career last year due to injuries and getting accustomed to a new team/pitching coach...
Sosa I can understand. ADD .5 to Davies' and HoRam's ERAs?? Why?! Davies is a great young pitcher, why would he regress .5 ERA from last year? That makes no sense unless you think Davies is Dan Kolb's long lost twin brother. HoRam couldn't get any worse than he was last year.
And Giles will go back to his '03 numbers because he finally was able to lift during this offseason and gain some bulk. He's lifting with his brother. Last year he was nursing his shoulder and he couldn't lift. His HR numbers should rise, and his stats should be close to '03 production. IMO Francoeur's numbers will be better than what he did combined with Raul Mondesi's 142 AB's of awful production. (.211/.271/.359) ... if you watched Jeff in the playoffs... I don't think pitchers are just going to "figure him out." IMO he'll hit .275 with 27 jacks this year.
4.74 ERA is awful. It should improve just by the loss of Dan Kolb by itself. Boyer and Devine have a ton of potential to succeed this year, as well as Reitsma, who was the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last year (if you watch the Braves you'd know what I'm talking about), and a whole bunch of other wildcards. I'm pretty confident it'll be better than last year.
If you're talking about having bad back ends of rotations, let's talk about some of the other teams in the NL East.
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by raw05hbk » Sat Feb 04, 2006 6:56 pm 
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