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For those who aren't yet aware: PECOTA projections are out.

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For those who aren't yet aware: PECOTA projections are out.

Postby quietstorm » Fri Jan 27, 2006 9:01 pm

Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
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Postby Wozzyck » Sat Jan 28, 2006 6:29 pm

This seems earlier than usual (at least I don't remember getting the projections for R, RBI, SV, etc. this early). My one complaint is that they don't list the number of ABs they're projecting, instead giving PAs. This would be fine if they also gave the projected number of hits (as you could then figure it out from the BA), but they don't do that either (though they do project 2B, 3B, HR). Since I'd like to have the stats inputted into a drafting program, it's a bit of an annoyance. Oh, well; I guess I'll wait for an update. :,-(
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Postby RynMan » Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:34 pm

Thanks for the heads up! ;-D
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Mon Jan 30, 2006 3:25 am

Wozzyck,
They don't have ABs, but they do have PAs and BBs, so you can just add a column in excel and subtract BBs from PAs to get ABs.

Regarding PECOTA, in the chat with Nate Silver on the website, he says:

Nate Silver: "Hi, gang. For those of you who missed the link, the 2006 weighted mean PECOTAs are now available for download in the Fantasy section of our site. The goal is to have the full, web version of the PECOTAs available by Super Bowl Sunday."

Last year, they had Player Forecast Manager, which came out after the initial PECOTA projections and were adjusted to more accurately project playing time. For example, in the currently released PECOTAs, Barry Bonds is slated for 642 plate appearances, which we all know won't happen.

I would wait a week and see how the web version of PECOTAs look.
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Postby RynMan » Mon Jan 30, 2006 4:21 am

Ryan Howard projected to hit 41 bombs this year 8-o

PECOTA tends to be a little conservative too...... :-o
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Postby Wozzyck » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:19 am

BobbyRoberto wrote:Wozzyck,
They don't have ABs, but they do have PAs and BBs, so you can just add a column in excel and subtract BBs from PAs to get ABs.


Thanks, but ABs don't equal PAs minus BBs. (One would also have to remove HBPs, Ss and SFs.) It would be an estimate, but nothing more.
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Postby Brendo » Mon Jan 30, 2006 11:41 am

Wozzyck wrote:
BobbyRoberto wrote:Wozzyck,
They don't have ABs, but they do have PAs and BBs, so you can just add a column in excel and subtract BBs from PAs to get ABs.


Thanks, but ABs don't equal PAs minus BBs. (One would also have to remove HBPs, Ss and SFs.) It would be an estimate, but nothing more.


isn't this all just an "estimate" anyway
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Postby Wozzyck » Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:40 pm

Brendo wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:
BobbyRoberto wrote:Wozzyck,
They don't have ABs, but they do have PAs and BBs, so you can just add a column in excel and subtract BBs from PAs to get ABs.


Thanks, but ABs don't equal PAs minus BBs. (One would also have to remove HBPs, Ss and SFs.) It would be an estimate, but nothing more.


isn't this all just an "estimate" anyway


Yes, but this estimate would, for instance, systematically skew the projections of those players that are likely to get hit by an inordinate number of pitches (David Eckstein comes to mind).
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Postby Philly Pride » Mon Jan 30, 2006 1:40 pm

Wozzyck wrote:
Brendo wrote:
Wozzyck wrote:
BobbyRoberto wrote:Wozzyck,
They don't have ABs, but they do have PAs and BBs, so you can just add a column in excel and subtract BBs from PAs to get ABs.


Thanks, but ABs don't equal PAs minus BBs. (One would also have to remove HBPs, Ss and SFs.) It would be an estimate, but nothing more.


isn't this all just an "estimate" anyway


Yes, but this estimate would, for instance, systematically skew the projections of those players that are likely to get hit by an inordinate number of pitches (David Eckstein comes to mind).


No love for Craig Biggio?
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Mon Jan 30, 2006 3:18 pm

Well, I know that PA-BB doesn't equal ABs, but it would give you an idea. Hopefully, the next version that is released will have ABs.
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