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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Jan 30, 2006 5:19 pm

davidmarver wrote:J-Cuz...I don't realize how you can continue to miss the historical analysis that GTWMA has presented.

Utley and Wright had nearly equivalent fantasy statistics last year.
Wright has a 95% chance of improving his stats next season.
Utley has a 50% chance of improving his stats next season.

There is a fairly easy conclusion to make -- Wright is a better pick for next season -- yet you've missed it time and time again.


Bingo, statistically speaking anyway. Of course, you can play favorites or otherwise cook up arguments against the numbers but isn't rule #1 not to play favorites?
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Jan 30, 2006 6:59 pm

I want to add my 2 cents. I know I am known for not supporting sabermetrics, theres no denying that. I do believe that what people like GWTMA, DavidMarver, Hootie, etc...say has a lot of merit to it, the proof is in the pudding. These are all smart people.

Here is my question as it relates to this argument. First, let me prefice it by saying I am in total agreement with GTWMA' and those who support him on this topic.

I understand that history shows that there is a 95% chance Wright will increase his production based on the fact that he is 23 years old. Let's take Utley out of this equation and focus on Wright if we can.

From a basic observation, I see that only 5% don't improve. The first thing that jumps into my head is that Wright has already produced so much in his early career that he may be in that 5%. How much better can a guy get?

Maybe the reason that 5% fails to improve is because they aren't that good so any improvement is improvement. Especially at this young age, most players haven't developed, maybe Wright is so far ahead of his peers that he's fully developed and thus in the 5%.

Even if he remains steady he is a superstar, he already has the talent. How much more can he improve. It's like asking MCAB to improve. How much more can he?

I'm just playing the Devil's Advocate here.
You have no frame of reference, Donny. You're like a child who walks into the middle of a movie...
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Postby looptid » Mon Jan 30, 2006 7:00 pm

If Wright and Utley both put up similar stats last season, and Wright is four years younger, than no one can argue that Wright has developed faster than Utley so far. Wouldn't it make sense that Wright continues to develop faster than Utley, specifically as it relates to next season?

As far as the clown that went off on the horse track tangent, no one cares about your betting record. There is far better data in baseball to work with.

Some good studies on player aging:

Tangotiger's study on aging, found at http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html showed that peak age is closest to 27 years of age:

Image

Tango also breaks down peaks for different statistics ( http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt ) and even takes on the question if speed ages faster than power ( http://www.tangotiger.net/SpeedLead.htm ).

A BP study on aging: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=4464

BP asks do catchers peak later than most positions: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... icleid=569

But don't base your judgement on any data. Just take some guy on a message board's word for it because he says he's good at betting on horses.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:16 pm

djacks wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:A 23 year old player like David Wright has a 95 percent chance for further improvement during the next several years.
A 27 year old player like Chase Utley has a 50 percent chance for improvement.
A 30 year old has about a 25 percent chance for improvement.


If this info is what you are basing your side of the arguement on then why did you make this statement:?

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Subsequently, all of us have addressed the next year question, where the emphasis of our argument has been the likely regression of Utley


If Utley has a 50% chance for improvement because he is 27, then why is it likely he will regress this year?

I think that the basis of this arguement has gotten lost in all the statistical crap that has been thrown around by both sides and I think it has led to a lot of misunderstandings. I've seen both sides of this arguement contradict themselves several times with their own comments!

Bottom line is this: You can use statistical evidence to support any theory but both Utley and Wright are individual players that are going to follow their own path and produce their own numbers, not what the system says they should produce. By GTWMA's own statement, Utley has a 50/50 chance of improving this year. But if you look at each player individually...EVERY player has a 50/50 chance of improving each year. I know you guys are trying to show the probability of improvement and that's something different than odds. I think that's where a lot fo confusion is coming from. The odds are 50/50 for every player...but the probability is based on the statistical history that is being thrown around. There...I've said my peace...Wright is the better long term keeper and probably the better option next year...but Utley is close for the next couple of years. Why? Common sense told me so.

Now...I'm going to go find a straw man to entertain myself with for awhile...know where I could find one GTWMA?... ;-) :-b :*) :-B



Once again, you've misrepresented what people are saying. There are TWO distinict points being made. One is the long-term question of whether or not Utley and Wright have peaked. It is this question that is addressed by the data on how many players have peaked at or before a certain age. So, the statements you cite at the top are NOT about next year. They are about the long-term prospects of Utley and Wright to improve upon last year's performance. Utley has a 50% chance of EVER IN HIS CAREER having a better year than 2005. Wright has a 95% chance EVER IN HIS CAREER of besting his 2005 levels.

The second point addresses the "next year" question. And there the evidence shows that guys who have a huge increase, as Utley did, rarely improve the following year.

In short, what you may see is arguments not well explained or, more often, not well understood, especially by those who are more interested in defending a position than in looking at the facts.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:21 pm

looptid wrote:Tangotiger's study on aging, found at http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html showed that peak age is closest to 27 years of age:



Very good stuff, one thing I've kind of noticed is that SP tend to have a slightly 'older' age curve. I've not put any #s together but just a thought. Baseball Forecaster also pointed out that some C (eg Mike Matheny...) have shown power spikes in their early to mid 30s and theorized that this may be b/c the practice catching SP helps their batting eyes.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:24 pm

Phatferd wrote:I understand that history shows that there is a 95% chance Wright will increase his production based on the fact that he is 23 years old. Let's take Utley out of this equation and focus on Wright if we can.

From a basic observation, I see that only 5% don't improve. The first thing that jumps into my head is that Wright has already produced so much in his early career that he may be in that 5%. How much better can a guy get?

Maybe the reason that 5% fails to improve is because they aren't that good so any improvement is improvement. Especially at this young age, most players haven't developed, maybe Wright is so far ahead of his peers that he's fully developed and thus in the 5%.

Even if he remains steady he is a superstar, he already has the talent. How much more can he improve. It's like asking MCAB to improve. How much more can he?

I'm just playing the Devil's Advocate here.


It's a fair question, Phatferd. But, really as good as Wright has started, his year last year was only 40% above league average. It's not unusual for guys at the top level to post numbers 50 75 or 100% better than league average. Ted Williams posted an OPS of 235 at 22 and never topped it. Of course, he missed his age 24-26 years because of the war. I've never seen a study of "early peakers" but my impression would be that they are often guys who got injured or were just a flash in the pan. The few studies I've seen of "Hall of Fame" level players suggest that they may actually peak a year or three later than the normal player.
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Postby J_Cuz » Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:41 pm

Sorry you have such disdain for the trends of gambling (as if that's not what we're talking about).

But it will never change the following fact:

Wright is a great horse- racing in the slop at Shea.

Utley is a very good horse- on the fast track.

I have few doubts that either player will succeed next season. I have done my best to support the very real idea that Utley will continue his progression.

But I just want to make this clear: There are two players in the game of fantasy baseball (well three if you include "homers")-- Stats junkies and trend players.

I fall into the latter and do quite well with it. In fact it is a one-hundred year reality of sport gambling. Trends ring true more often than certain statistical compilations across all avenues.

And in horse racing (I know how you guys hate it so I keep bringing it up) the fast track allows for quicker race times than less-than-favorable track conditions.

Unless you have Secretariat.... and unfortunately there's only one of those.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/play ... _id=121347
www.igglephans.com
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 30, 2006 9:50 pm

J_Cuz wrote:Sorry you have such disdain for the trends of gambling (as if that's not what we're talking about).

But it will never change the following fact:

Wright is a great horse- racing in the slop at Shea.

Utley is a very good horse- on the fast track.

I have few doubts that either player will succeed next season. I have done my best to support the very real idea that Utley will continue his progression.

But I just want to make this clear: There are two players in the game of fantasy baseball (well three if you include "homers")-- Stats junkies and trend players.

I fall into the latter and do quite well with it. In fact it is a one-hundred year reality of sport gambling. Trends ring true more often than certain statistical compilations across all avenues.

And in horse racing (I know how you guys hate it so I keep bringing it up) the fast track allows for quicker race times than less-than-favorable track conditions.

Unless you have Secretariat.... and unfortunately there's only one of those.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/play ... _id=121347


Trends ARE stats.

There ARE two kinds of fantasy players.
Those who use stats and know how to use them
And those who don't.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jan 31, 2006 6:34 am

Some trends that favor Wright. .946 road OPS last year,
.915 career wise. Utley too his credit did have a .914 road OPS last year. Compare career road OPS of

Arod .945
Tex .788
Helton .915
Utley .836
Wright .915

Wrights hit rate % pretty much has been the same year to year.

Utleys hit rate % has curves in it. His 1st half hit rate % of 36, was abnormal for him. Last 4 years of
28
32
27
32

Wright career wise versus RHP .882 OPS
Utley career wise versus LHP .762 OPS
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Postby ukrneal » Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:32 am

I really think it's simpler than all that. For most people, forget the stats. Wright has been hyped for so long as being a major superstar. I'd guess that most people only heard about Utley last year (or had forgotten about him). I think we've all been biased by the barage of info on Wright and how he's the second coming...of someone. And for most people, a baseball player like Utley is old and washed up. Of course, I'm exaggerating, but there is a pretty major psychological element in this. Felix is the same thing.
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