GotowarMissAgnes wrote:A 23 year old player like David Wright has a 95 percent chance for further improvement during the next several years.
A 27 year old player like Chase Utley has a 50 percent chance for improvement.
A 30 year old has about a 25 percent chance for improvement.
If this info is what you are basing your side of the arguement on then why did you make this statement:?
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Subsequently, all of us have addressed the next year question, where the emphasis of our argument has been the likely regression of Utley
If Utley has a 50% chance for improvement because he is 27, then why is it likely
he will regress this year?
I think that the basis of this arguement has gotten lost in all the statistical crap that has been thrown around by both sides and I think it has led to a lot of misunderstandings. I've seen both sides of this arguement contradict themselves several times with their own comments!
Bottom line is this: You can use statistical evidence to support any theory but both Utley and Wright are individual players that are going to follow their own path and produce their own numbers, not what the system says they should produce. By GTWMA's own statement, Utley has a 50/50 chance of improving this year. But if you look at each player individually...EVERY player has a 50/50 chance of improving each year. I know you guys are trying to show the probability
of improvement and that's something different than odds
. I think that's where a lot fo confusion is coming from. The odds are 50/50 for every player...but the probability is based on the statistical history that is being thrown around. There...I've said my peace...Wright is the better long term keeper and probably the better option next year...but Utley is close for the next couple of years. Why? Common sense told me so.
Now...I'm going to go find a straw man to entertain myself with for awhile...know where I could find one GTWMA?...
"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."-Ayn Rand