As far as all of those examples I used, they are simply serving to dispell this guy running around here saying that 5% of players who show early power continue to show it... and if you don't think Grieve and Kittles lost their power you are mistaken.
Grieve had one year of 1 HR every 17 AB, his next year was 1 every 22 AB's, his had an off year then had 1 every 25 AB. He started losing playtime at that point. What this shows is exactly what I said, he had a big power spike, regressed towards his old power numbers and then maintained that level. This is exactly what I think will happen with Utley and its completely normal.
Kittle 1 HR every 15 AB, his power stayed at that level or better his entire career, the only thing that slipped was his playtime. You can't just look at HR totals, he never lost any power in there.
But the arguing in here that Utley has somehow peaked at 27 is discredited with EVERY SINGLE POST I've made.
Utley hasn't peaked and nobody really is saying he has, they are simply saying his liklihood of growth is smaller than Wrights.
You may not like the fact that Utley, LIKE KENT, got a playing time increase but don't ever claim that it serves as legitimate excuse for one player not producing prior to age 26 but not the other, because that makes no sense to anyone
Kent is a good example of what I said about spikes being followed by a regression. Usually a large spike in power is a combination of two things, the player actually getting better and the player having a 'lucky' year for HR's. In Utley's case the culprit is most likely his 8% increase in flyball rate that will cause a dip in his power next year.
1993 - 1 HR per 23 AB
1995 - 1 HR per 23 AB
1997 - 1 HR per 20 AB
1998 - 1 HR per 12 AB (this is a spike)
1999 - 1 HR per 22 AB (the expected dip the next year)
2000 - 1 HR per 18 AB (the new power level slightly regressed from his spike year)
And save me the pliable sabermetric NONSENSE because it has never been proven for one second to predict ANY TRENDS whatsover, all it serves is to better understand past statistics. It shows compilations of past stats, nothing more
Only because you don't understand sabermetrics.
Sooner or later fantasy spots comes down to production trends and THOSE are heavily in Utley's favor (and Wright's as well).
Yes they do come down to trends, only you are looking at the wrong stats to try to spot trends. AVG, HR, ERA are all skills with way too much noise behind them, you need to dig deeper and look at the trends of the players raw skills.
I don't think anyone is saying Utley won't get better with time, the assertion is that Utley had more of a break out year and the majority of the time after a breakout year the player repeats the year or slightly regresses and then grows some more. Wright did not have a breakout year, he if anything slightly regressed from a skills standpoint last year, its just must more likely that he sees major improvement than it is for Utley.
Sorry if you disagree but nothing you have posted has shown this to be otherwise, every single player you posted as an example saw a power spike followed the next year by a slight dip. In many cases the players didn't even have a spike or dip, they just gained or lost playtime and you were looking at their HR total and not anything else.
Now granted Utley's history is spotty at best with his limited major league experience and I'm looking at his major league expected stats based off of his minor league stats which can be an iffy situation so there is a bit more room for error than with an experienced player. I will freely admit I could be wrong. Also in Utley's favor is the fact that he plays in a left handed power hitters dream park.
Anyway I think this topic has been beaten to death, you obviously disagree and there will be no real way to tell who is correct until at least mid season. I'm saying pay for last years stats for Utley at most, don't expect major improvement, pay for slightly better than last years stats for Wright which puts him probably $2-3 more in value than Utley, either player you pick is going to put up good numbers for you.
Last edited by Ender on Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.