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Postby J_Cuz » Sun Jan 29, 2006 6:13 pm

"A guy named Bobby Abreu?"

8-o

You can't be serious.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 29, 2006 7:03 pm

I was being sarcastic, and am not surprised that you missed that, given that you seemed to be unaware that Bonds' (and Giambi, and Sosa) post age 30 surge might not be good proof about age related performance.
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Postby J_Cuz » Sun Jan 29, 2006 8:26 pm

I disagree on all fronts on that as well.

Certainly, steroids may have spiked their performance to a degree, but I also think if you dismiss their accomplishments outright it is presumptuous and naive regarding how widespread steroid use was during those seasons.

If the majority of players are using steroids then that gives more credence to the fact that those players were just good. Maybe not 60 home run good, but 40-50 hr good and any sensible fantasy owner would take that type of production in the first round.

So again, the steroid argument holds no water against Chase Utley progressing his statistics further. If only because those SAME STEROIDS were available, permissible, and likely used by the majority of younger players who should have usurped them, what was it, oh yeah 95% of the time.

B-)
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 29, 2006 8:53 pm

J_Cuz wrote:I disagree on all fronts on that as well.

Certainly, steroids may have spiked their performance to a degree, but I also think if you dismiss their accomplishments outright it is presumptuous and naive regarding how widespread steroid use was during those seasons.

If the majority of players are using steroids then that gives more credence to the fact that those players were just good. Maybe not 60 home run good, but 40-50 hr good and any sensible fantasy owner would take that type of production in the first round.

So again, the steroid argument holds no water against Chase Utley progressing his statistics further. If only because those SAME STEROIDS were available, permissible, and likely used by the majority of younger players who should have usurped them, what was it, oh yeah 95% of the time.

B-)


If anyone else can discern the logic of the above paragraphs, please send me a note at:

mailto:wattaloadofBS@look.up.usurp.dude.com
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Postby J_Cuz » Sun Jan 29, 2006 9:31 pm

lol, I expected less of you.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:33 pm

There is a big difference between what Wright at 23, and Utley at 27, have accomplished. Both are studs at their positions, but the likely hood of Utley out performing Wright, in the next 3-5 years is small. GTWMA has made excellent points as usual, to be ignored by some.
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Postby Ender » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:47 pm

Yeah you can't blame all of Sosa's stats on steroids, some of them are from the corked bats.
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Postby J_Cuz » Sun Jan 29, 2006 11:15 pm

hysterical stuff.

And you can't blame Barry's career .300 average on steroids either, they don't help hand-eye-coordination.

Pretty impressive for a guy who never hit higher than .301 prior to turning 27... after which he eclipsed that mark TEN TIMES!

Wow.

;-D
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Postby Ender » Sun Jan 29, 2006 11:22 pm

Batting eye tends to increase from age 29 on, its power and speed that decreases which tends to lower your H%. A lot of players grow in average after their prime, its just pretty rare to suddenly grow in power.

None of that has much to do with Utley or Wright though, both being under 28 still.
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Postby J_Cuz » Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:50 am

Ok, that's your opinion just humor me for a moment here...

Now Utley had 28 homers last season, pretty good considering he wasn't a fulltime player for the first month-and-a-half.

Now, even though I was kind enough to do the research and provide a very solid number of players who are currenly active and have experienced NOTABLE and UNDENIABLE spikes in power figures after age 27 it was dismissed as wholly and completely a by-product of their collective steroid use and it was also somehow ascertained that these were the only players in baseball using the performance enhancers (there ten guys). Not to mention it was also FALSELY ascertained that these were the ONLY players who showed such a spike and therefore incredibely RARE (everyone conveniently forgetting Morgan Ensberg's 36HR outburst last season).

But just explain these pre-steroid statistical "anomolies" to me.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stargwi01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsho01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mitchke01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/galaran01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fostege01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/yastrca01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/winfida01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/thomago01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/evansdw01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sauerha01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sievero01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/coopece01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/thornan01.shtml

And then there's guys like DON MATTINGLY. Guys on the fast track to the HOF... guys hitting more than 30 homers and knocking in 100 runs THREE TIMES prior to turning 26.

ONLY TO NEVER HIT MORE THAN 25 HOMERUNS AGAIN, EVER.

So how can you be sure that Utley isn't the next one of these?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kentje01.shtml

and Wright ain't the next one of these?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mattido01.shtml

and WHILE WERE AT IT, help me find some of those "5%" of players who happen to show power at a young age and unexplicably lose it...

Guys like these players

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/grievbe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/williea02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/davisal01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kittlro01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/charbjo01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hornebo01.shtml

Looks like a bit more than 5% to me.

Either way this has been fun but that's the bell kids,

CLASS IS OVER.

:-P
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