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Postby djacks » Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:58 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Vlad, using OPS+ as the measure:
Best year was at age 24, followed by 26, 29, 28, 22, 27, 23, 25, 21.
Looks to me like your summary of his performance is wrong. His best years have been between 24 to 29, while his worst years were 21-25.

Berkman: 25, 28, 26, 29, 27, 24. Not sure what you see wrong with this pattern. Came up at 23, and has been in his peak years around 25-28, as the model suggests. Not even really in a decline phase yet.

Beltre: pass. The model doesn't claim to predict every player perfectly.

Utley could be like Ortiz, though your description of his career isn't right. Ortiz had several years of VERY strong performance in the major leagues from age 21 to 26, while Utley at some of those ageas was still trying to cope with AAA pitching or performing at a much lower level than Ortiz did..


Ortiz had some VERY strong performances from age 21 to 26...!?!?... 8-o

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
2002 MIN 412 52 112 20 75 43 1 0.2718 0.3391 0.5000
2001 MIN 303 46 71 18 48 40 1 0.2343 0.3237 0.4752
2000 MIN 415 59 117 10 63 57 1 0.2819 0.3640 0.4458
1999 MIN 20 1 0 0 0 5 0 0.0000 0.2000 0.0000
1998 MIN 278 47 77 9 46 39 1 0.2770 0.3712 0.4460
1997 MIN 49 10 16 1 6 2 0 0.3265 0.3529 0.4490

Even if you combine ALL those years his best is 20HR and .839 OPS...I hate to see what you call a poor year if these are VERY strong years. Are you kidding me???

Your info of Berkman is close except his OPS was actually higher at age 24 than at age 29 or 27...it was lowest at age 27.

Vladdy's prime OPS years have been 23-28, I agree...but his best pure power numbers have come at the ages of 22,23,24, and 28...showing you can improve after the "magical" age of 27...(WOW!...players actually can improve after 27?...don't tell Peter Gammons!)

And I know of all the "studies" that show these projections...but you never indicated exactly where your numbers came from. How did you come up with your projected OPS numbers for Wright and Utley? Are they your personal projections or what?
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Postby Ender » Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:09 pm

Basically, what this boils down to is this (from the pro-Wright crowd):

1. Wright is younger and will contintue to improve and get better.
2. Then, when the magical age of 27 hits, he will only then approach his peak and improve that much more.
3. Utley is older so his improvement will not be on the same grade as Wright and is a long-shot to improve over his last year at all.


Thats not what I meant at all. What I personally meant was that Utley's numbers spiked last year while Wrights didn't really improve. In the majority of cases a spike in power and speed is followed the next year by a slight regression and then normal growth the next year. Its pretty unlikely that Utley's PX spikes almost 50 points and he maintains it. I think Utleys upside is a repeat of last year and his downside is a slight regression, I think Wrights downside is a repeat of last year and his upside is a slight improvement.

Also Utley spent more time in the minors and especially AAA than Wright, not sure why people keep saying otherwise.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:27 pm

djacks wrote:Ortiz had some VERY strong performances from age 21 to 26...!?!?... 8-o

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
2002 MIN 412 52 112 20 75 43 1 0.2718 0.3391 0.5000
2001 MIN 303 46 71 18 48 40 1 0.2343 0.3237 0.4752
2000 MIN 415 59 117 10 63 57 1 0.2819 0.3640 0.4458
1999 MIN 20 1 0 0 0 5 0 0.0000 0.2000 0.0000
1998 MIN 278 47 77 9 46 39 1 0.2770 0.3712 0.4460
1997 MIN 49 10 16 1 6 2 0 0.3265 0.3529 0.4490

Even if you combine ALL those years his best is 20HR and .839 OPS...I hate to see what you call a poor year if these are VERY strong years. Are you kidding me???
djacks wrote:ed to stop counting home runs and start comparing that OPS to league averages.

At age 21 and 22, Ortiz had 300+ major league at bats where he had an OPS+ between 7 and 12 percent above league average. For a kid to do that at age 21/22 is a clear sign of very good potential. Numbers like that are similar to the numbers put up by guys like Rolen or Chavez when they came up at those ages.

His performance then plateaued, as the Twins screwed around with him, but he still performed at or above league average. When a guy is performing above average at ages below 27, the model predicts that as he nears his peak, he'll be further and further above average. And that's exactly what happened when the Bosox finally gave Ortiz a real chance.

So, no, I'm not kidding you. I'm telling you to look at the right measures and understand what they mean.

djacks wrote:Your info of Berkman is close except his OPS was actually higher at age 24 than at age 29 or 27...it was lowest at age 27.

Vladdy's prime OPS years have been 23-28, I agree...but his best pure power numbers have come at the ages of 22,23,24, and 28...showing you can improve after the "magical" age of 27...(WOW!...players actually can improve after 27?...don't tell Peter Gammons!)


OPS+ is different than OPS. It adjusts for league performance and park. You need to look at the appropriate measures. My info on Berkman is correct. Yours is misleading because it does not control for park and league.

And, I'll say this one more time before I jump all over your ass...NO ONE HAS SAID THAT PLAYERS DO NOT IMPROVE AFTER AGE 27. If you'd like to discuss the topic with people intelligently, let's do so. If you'd like to masturbate with some straw man you've invented in your head, be my guest.

djacks wrote:And I know of all the "studies" that show these projections...but you never indicated exactly where your numbers came from. How did you come up with your projected OPS numbers for Wright and Utley? Are they your personal projections or what?


Just a rough calculation by me based upon the historical average increases and decreases for players at those ages.
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Re: Pu-Lease!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:47 pm

J_Cuz wrote:
Sometimes, I find the stuff here downright bewildering.

Lucky these guys didn't "peak" at 26

GARY SHEFFIELD

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sheffga01.shtml

LARRY WALKER

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/walkela01.shtml

BARRY BONDS

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bondsba01.shtml

CARLOS DELGADO

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/delgaca01.shtml

JEFF BAGWELL

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bagweje01.shtml

SAMMY SOSA

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sosasa01.shtml

JASON GIAMBI

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/giambja01.shtml

DERREK LEE

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leede02.shtml

CARLOS LEE

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leeca01.shtml

VINNY CASTILLA

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/castivi02.shtml

Sorry I left out the Aaron Small comparisons but I hope that this establishes the absolute and undeniable FACT that the argument that Utley has peaked holds ZERO validity.

btw, ANYONE who trys to use the "steroid" or "ballpark" enhancement arguments in order to support an accelartion of ANY of these player's stats is ACTUALLY ARGUING FOR Utley and AGAINST Wright simply BECAUSE of the fact that UTLEY plays in Citizen's Bank Park and steroids are illegal so now no one has an edge.

I'm done.[/b]


I'll say. You know it might be nice to actually leanr how to use statistics before you start spouting off. In order to look at player's performance, you have to adjust for factors that differ across years. For example, you have to adjust for the park they played in. And you have to adjust for the overall league average performance.

So, let's do that and look again at the players you posted and their peak perfomance in OPS+, which adjusts for park and league:

Sheffield, top at 190 in 1996, when he was 27.
Walker, top at 177, when he was 30.
Bonds, top at 205 and 206, at age 27 and 28, unless you count his steroid years.
Delgado, top at 182, at age 28
Bagwell, top at 213, at age 26
Sosa, top at 128, at age 27, until chemical enhancements
Giambi, top at 202, at age 30, also tainted by chemical enhancement
DLee, top at 177, at age 29
CLee, top at 123, at age 28
Castilla, top at 128, at age 30.

So, I don't know what you think your evidence shows, but it really shows very little. Rather than look at a few players you cherry-picked (and poorly at that), why not look at all the evidence.

The research does not say every player peaks at age 27. But half of players peak by that age. Two-thirds peak by age 29. Three-quarters by age 30.

So, the odds are 50-50 that Utley has just one year of better performance.
The odds just 33 percent that Utley will continue to improve for 3 years.
The odds are less than 25% that he will improve for 4 years.

So, all people are saying is that the most likely prediction for Utley is that he won't improve much more. I'm sorry if that hurts your feelings, but that's what the research shows.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Sun Jan 29, 2006 12:53 am

TB13 wrote:[No offense, but this is just a case of pro-Wright bias. Utley has faced professionals for a far less amount of time than Wright has. A case can be made that he made his adjustment at a better clip than Wright has, given how much time Wright spend in the minors as opposed to Utley. His skills showed a major jumb because he adjusted to professional pitching. One can say that had Utley played and entire '04 season and the first quarter of teh '05 season, he would have made an even bigger adjustment and had better numbers.


So minor leaguers are just a bunch of Amateurs? I don't know if Utley was drafted out of high school or College, but he was facing 'professional' pitching for at least 4 years before breaking into the majors at age 26 (if he was drafted out of high school it would be 8 years), and Wright who (I believe) was drafted out of high school... broke into the majors at age 22 or 21, with at most 4 years against pro pitching and none at the collegiate level... additionally as someone who is only 23 he is at leas 7 years away from the period when most players start to break down, which is around the age of 30... I am a flippin Braves fan, and I like Wright and Utley almost equally FOR NEXT YEAR, but in keeper leagues it is ridiculuous to argue for an older player whose stats are not SIGNFICANTLY greater, and I am not even convinced that Utley's stats are better at all... he finished under .300, and he had the assistance of a hitter's park, while Wright hits in a decidedly pitcher's park...
edit 11:54pm
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Postby J_Cuz » Sun Jan 29, 2006 4:36 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
djacks wrote:Ortiz had some VERY strong performances from age 21 to 26...!?!?... 8-o

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
2002 MIN 412 52 112 20 75 43 1 0.2718 0.3391 0.5000
2001 MIN 303 46 71 18 48 40 1 0.2343 0.3237 0.4752
2000 MIN 415 59 117 10 63 57 1 0.2819 0.3640 0.4458
1999 MIN 20 1 0 0 0 5 0 0.0000 0.2000 0.0000
1998 MIN 278 47 77 9 46 39 1 0.2770 0.3712 0.4460
1997 MIN 49 10 16 1 6 2 0 0.3265 0.3529 0.4490

Even if you combine ALL those years his best is 20HR and .839 OPS...I hate to see what you call a poor year if these are VERY strong years. Are you kidding me???
djacks wrote:ed to stop counting home runs and start comparing that OPS to league averages.

At age 21 and 22, Ortiz had 300+ major league at bats where he had an OPS+ between 7 and 12 percent above league average. For a kid to do that at age 21/22 is a clear sign of very good potential. Numbers like that are similar to the numbers put up by guys like Rolen or Chavez when they came up at those ages.

His performance then plateaued, as the Twins screwed around with him, but he still performed at or above league average. When a guy is performing above average at ages below 27, the model predicts that as he nears his peak, he'll be further and further above average. And that's exactly what happened when the Bosox finally gave Ortiz a real chance.

So, no, I'm not kidding you. I'm telling you to look at the right measures and understand what they mean.

djacks wrote:Your info of Berkman is close except his OPS was actually higher at age 24 than at age 29 or 27...it was lowest at age 27.

Vladdy's prime OPS years have been 23-28, I agree...but his best pure power numbers have come at the ages of 22,23,24, and 28...showing you can improve after the "magical" age of 27...(WOW!...players actually can improve after 27?...don't tell Peter Gammons!)


OPS+ is different than OPS. It adjusts for league performance and park. You need to look at the appropriate measures. My info on Berkman is correct. Yours is misleading because it does not control for park and league.

And, I'll say this one more time before I jump all over your ass...NO ONE HAS SAID THAT PLAYERS DO NOT IMPROVE AFTER AGE 27. If you'd like to discuss the topic with people intelligently, let's do so. If you'd like to masturbate with some straw man you've invented in your head, be my guest.

djacks wrote:And I know of all the "studies" that show these projections...but you never indicated exactly where your numbers came from. How did you come up with your projected OPS numbers for Wright and Utley? Are they your personal projections or what?


Just a rough calculation by me based upon the historical average increases and decreases for players at those ages.


Absurd, YOU KNOW THAT RIGHT?

you have basically stated that, through statistics, THE PARK THE PLAYER PLAYS IN is the deciding factor in the success the players have the IMMEDIATE three years past twenty seven and then ALL PLAYERS can blossom to the exorbiant pace that Bonds progressed THEREAFTER.

I just want you to know what YOU SAID before you extrapolate some more nonsense from that condensed vantage point you have espoused, son.
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Postby TB13 » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:08 am

Niffoc4 wrote:I am a flippin Braves fan, and I like Wright and Utley almost equally FOR NEXT YEAR, but in keeper leagues it is ridiculuous to argue for an older player whose stats are not SIGNFICANTLY greater, and I am not even convinced that Utley's stats are better at all... he finished under .300, and he had the assistance of a hitter's park, while Wright hits in a decidedly pitcher's park...

Who cares about how they got their stats as long as they got them? Want to say that Utley has a park advantage? Fine, I have already pointed that out. But that advantage is not going to go away. However it figured into Utley's stats, it will continue to do so. And whatever edge it gives him when compared to Wright, will continue.
You are arguing points about who has more value in keeper leagues, again, who cares for the next 5 years? After that, sure, Wright will have the advantage. But you are disdaining Utley's age, as if he is already 30+. If you are talking about a 10 year span, your point would be valid. But when talking about the next 5 years, there is nothing to indicate that Wright will be the superior player.
At, best Wright's #'s are breaking even with Utley's from last year.
I fully admit to to be privy to some of the studies that some of the others have sighted in this thread. I understand their points entirely, even if I do not agree with some of them. But to argue keeper value vs. non-keeper value when a player is the ripe old age of 27 is rather silly.
For me it comes down to this. Utley's hit rate improved dramatically. This is due, in large part, to two factors. The fact that he is learning to hit lefties (his .219 ba notwithstanding, as it was much lower in the first 2/3 of the year, then it was after August) and playing in that bandbox that is the Phillies home stadium. In the future, I expect for him to continue to improve against lefties and he will always have the home ballpark advantage.
I just think that Utley is a loophole to most of the studies and facts that were thrown out. No, I do not have a factual study to show me that, but I believe that given the age that he broke into the majors, and given the improvement that he has shown, that for the next 5 years, his pure #'s will be every bit as good, if not better than Wright's. However, the studies cited are certainly enough to give credence to the other argument.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:11 am

J_Cuz wrote:Absurd, YOU KNOW THAT RIGHT?

you have basically stated that, through statistics, THE PARK THE PLAYER PLAYS IN is the deciding factor in the success the players have the IMMEDIATE three years past twenty seven and then ALL PLAYERS can blossom to the exorbiant pace that Bonds progressed THEREAFTER.

I just want you to know what YOU SAID before you extrapolate some more nonsense from that condensed vantage point you have espoused, son.


Not sure what you are saying or who you are writing to, but if you think I have stated any such thing, that's not what I was writing.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:20 am

TB13 wrote:
Niffoc4 wrote:I am a flippin Braves fan, and I like Wright and Utley almost equally FOR NEXT YEAR, but in keeper leagues it is ridiculuous to argue for an older player whose stats are not SIGNFICANTLY greater, and I am not even convinced that Utley's stats are better at all... he finished under .300, and he had the assistance of a hitter's park, while Wright hits in a decidedly pitcher's park...

Who cares about how they got their stats as long as they got them? Want to say that Utley has a park advantage? Fine, I have already pointed that out. But that advantage is not going to go away. However it figured into Utley's stats, it will continue to do so. And whatever edge it gives him when compared to Wright, will continue.
You are arguing points about who has more value in keeper leagues, again, who cares for the next 5 years? After that, sure, Wright will have the advantage. But you are disdaining Utley's age, as if he is already 30+. If you are talking about a 10 year span, your point would be valid. But when talking about the next 5 years, there is nothing to indicate that Wright will be the superior player.
At, best Wright's #'s are breaking even with Utley's from last year.
I fully admit to to be privy to some of the studies that some of the others have sighted in this thread. I understand their points entirely, even if I do not agree with some of them. But to argue keeper value vs. non-keeper value when a player is the ripe old age of 27 is rather silly.
For me it comes down to this. Utley's hit rate improved dramatically. This is due, in large part, to two factors. The fact that he is learning to hit lefties (his .219 ba notwithstanding, as it was much lower in the first 2/3 of the year, then it was after August) and playing in that bandbox that is the Phillies home stadium. In the future, I expect for him to continue to improve against lefties and he will always have the home ballpark advantage.
I just think that Utley is a loophole to most of the studies and facts that were thrown out. No, I do not have a factual study to show me that, but I believe that given the age that he broke into the majors, and given the improvement that he has shown, that for the next 5 years, his pure #'s will be every bit as good, if not better than Wright's. However, the studies cited are certainly enough to give credence to the other argument.

It is possible that Utley will improve longer than normal, but what people such as Ender and GTWMA are saying is that the odds are against him, while the odds are in favor of Wright improving for a longer period of time. I guess Utley is one of your favorite players, and as fans we all have the right to be homers about someone, so good luck in keeping Utley. The thing about statistics is that there are thousands of cases being cited, and giving 5 or 10 examples that break the mold does not prove the rule, because they are actually taken into account...
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 29, 2006 10:25 am

TB13 wrote:You are arguing points about who has more value in keeper leagues, again, who cares for the next 5 years? After that, sure, Wright will have the advantage. But you are disdaining Utley's age, as if he is already 30+. If you are talking about a 10 year span, your point would be valid. But when talking about the next 5 years, there is nothing to indicate that Wright will be the superior player.
At, best Wright's #'s are breaking even with Utley's from last year.
I fully admit to to be privy to some of the studies that some of the others have sighted in this thread. I understand their points entirely, even if I do not agree with some of them. But to argue keeper value vs. non-keeper value when a player is the ripe old age of 27 is rather silly.


No, it's not. First, Utley's performance last year was far above his career norms. So, the research on that suggests strongly that he will regress a bit this year, rather than improve on last year's numbers. You may see it as a sign that he "broke out" and it may be. But the research clearly shows that guys rarely match and exceed that breakout in the following year. They typicaly decline a little bit, not close to the pre-break out numbers, but not exceeding them either.

Second, in terms of longer term performance, the research suggests there's a high probability that in the next 1 to 3 years Utley will plateau, then begin a slight decline in years 3-5.

So, in the short term, you would expect a slight advantage for Wright, because his numbers were not a huge jump. His numbers should be very close to, or maybe a little above last year's performance. Longer term, Wright is expected to be growing through almost all those years, maybe only leveling off in the last of those 5 years. As a result in years 3-5, you can expect Wright to have a significant advantage over Utley.

TB13 wrote:For me it comes down to this. Utley's hit rate improved dramatically. This is due, in large part, to two factors. The fact that he is learning to hit lefties (his .219 ba notwithstanding, as it was much lower in the first 2/3 of the year, then it was after August) and playing in that bandbox that is the Phillies home stadium. In the future, I expect for him to continue to improve against lefties and he will always have the home ballpark advantage.

Hit rate improvements, in fact, are a sign of luck, not performance. They vary a huge amount from year to year, so that guys who have significant improvements in hit rates, generally do not hold on to them.

Further, I'd like to see the numbers indicating that he improved against lefties in the latter part of the season. Since he batted just .232 and .268 against all pitchers in Aug and Sept, I doubt he hit better against lefties. Even if he did, it's dangerous to judge players on a handfull of at bats like that.

Last, he may not always have the ballpark advantage. Within 5 years both guys will have a free agency period.

TB13 wrote:I just think that Utley is a loophole to most of the studies and facts that were thrown out. No, I do not have a factual study to show me that, but I believe that given the age that he broke into the majors, and given the improvement that he has shown, that for the next 5 years, his pure #'s will be every bit as good, if not better than Wright's. However, the studies cited are certainly enough to give credence to the other argument.


He broke in at age 24. That's exactly the age at which the majority of players break in. Nothing unusual in that.
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