I don't understand something - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

I don't understand something

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 27, 2006 11:55 pm

Tavish wrote:Wright didn't progress through the minors faster than Utley. Utley was drafted out of college and Wright out of High School. Wright played more games with more ABs in the minors. Utley's progress was also slowed by the Phillies' determination to play Polanco through the 04 season and even into the 05, while Wright had the complete backing of the Mets organization.


I was a little sloppy in what I was trying to say. Let me explain.
At age 19 in low A Wright had a .768 OPS.
At age 20 in high A he hit .828. Moving up a level, he still improved his performance.
At age 21 in AA he hit 1.086. Moving up a level he still improved.
At age 22 in AAA, he hit .967. Moving up a level he only slid a hair.
Moving up mid-year, in MLB at 22, he hit .857. Moving up a level mid-year, he only declined a modest amount.

Utley went from hitting over 1.000 in college at age 22, to a .796 at AAA at age 23. It took him a whole year to adjust to professional ball.
At age 24, in AAA, he hit .907 and moved up mid-year.
Instead of just declining a modest amount, his OPS slipped to .695. Where Wright dropped 110 points, Utley dropped 212.

At age 25 Utley repeated his good performance in AAA, and again returned to MLB, where he hit .776. That's much better. Still in his first 400 ABs (at an oldr age), he could only post a .750 OPS. Wright was 100 points better and 3 years younger.

Finally, at age 26, Utley makes the adjustment.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby djacks » Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:44 am

I see a lot of you arguing that Utley has "peaked"...how so? After one full season in the majors a player has peaked??? He didn't even get regular playing time until 1/4 of the way through the season and he still puts up great numbers. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Utley has peaked, if anything he is just now entering his prime and should see improved numbers over the next couple of years before leveling off...especially in that lineup and ballpark. Wright is a great young player and will improve as well, but to say that Utley has "peaked" just isn't true.

I think this is a great argument. I love David Wright, but I do think he is a bit overhyped this year. An arguement could be made for taking Utley before Wright, considering position scarcity...especially in a re-draft league.
"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."-Ayn Rand
djacks
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1262
Joined: 30 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Office

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 28, 2006 2:08 am

djacks wrote:I see a lot of you arguing that Utley has "peaked"...how so? After one full season in the majors a player has peaked??? He didn't even get regular playing time until 1/4 of the way through the season and he still puts up great numbers. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Utley has peaked, if anything he is just now entering his prime and should see improved numbers over the next couple of years before leveling off...especially in that lineup and ballpark. Wright is a great young player and will improve as well, but to say that Utley has "peaked" just isn't true.

I think this is a great argument. I love David Wright, but I do think he is a bit overhyped this year. An arguement could be made for taking Utley before Wright, considering position scarcity...especially in a re-draft league.


Because research shows that what matters for peaking is age, not number of years in the majors. Utley certainly could improve for a few more years, but more than half of players peak by age 27, more than two-thirds by age 28, and more than 75 percent by age 29. So, it is very likely that Utley is at or close to peaking, while Wright has several more years of improvement ahead of him.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby TB13 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:34 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Because research shows that what matters for peaking is age, not number of years in the majors. Utley certainly could improve for a few more years, but more than half of players peak by age 27, more than two-thirds by age 28, and more than 75 percent by age 29. So, it is very likely that Utley is at or close to peaking, while Wright has several more years of improvement ahead of him.

I think that such an argument is a falicy. Yes, most research shows that players begin to peak at around 27. But, most of that takes into account the fact that most of the players involved in such research arrive in the majors long before the age that Utley did. Utley took some important steps forward as he learned to hit lefties last year. Not to mention that his overal game took major steps forward from the previous years. So to suggest that his growth curve has almost peaked by this year cannot be factual.
Wright has far more at-bats in the minors that Utley did. So he had far more time to adjust to professional pitching than Utley did. The correlation being that a case can be made for Utley making the necessary adjustments much faster than Wright did.
I believe that in most cases the age of 27 argument can be had, but Utley is an exception due to his late start. As he learns and makes even more adjustments, his overall game will improve at the same rate as Wright's. You can even say that it will improve faster and further due to the fact that Wright has been facing professional pitching for more years than Wright did.
It is due to those two factors that I do not think that a case can be made for Utley to have already peaked and Wright will continue to improve.
TB13
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1197
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Xanadu

Postby TB13 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:35 am

djacks wrote:I think this is a great argument. I love David Wright, but I do think he is a bit overhyped this year. An arguement could be made for taking Utley before Wright, considering position scarcity...especially in a re-draft league.


I think that an argument can be made based on pure #'s, not having anything to do with position scarcity.
TB13
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1197
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Xanadu

Postby tal1286 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:59 am

Just as a point about age vs. years in the majors. Aaron Small is the perfect example. He is around 35 years old. Now, he went 10-0 with a 3.2 ERA last season. For all intents and purposes that was basically his first year in a major role for a team. He had only started 3 games in the previous 10ish years of his career. Does anyone actually think that he has the chance to improve because this is his first season starting? Sure, he might, but I think most people would say he will be lucky to repeat his great year, or half year, I suppose. Why? Because he is 35 and doesn't have much room to improve cause hhe is old. Age is very important.
Image

Leyland said, "We thought we were getting a hell of a player, but Neifi simply did not perform well."

really?
tal1286
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 1830
Joined: 31 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Verizon Center, Cheering on the Hoyas

Postby Niffoc4 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:03 am

dannahann wrote:I know you're arguing against those 4 years meaning much, but truth is Wright put up that monster 2005 season in the majors at 23 years old. In contrast, Utley at 23 hit .263 with 17HR and a .796 OPS at AAA Scanton/Wilkes-Barre. That DOES matter.

Amen... and age is very important... I would say the difference between Wright and Utley for next year is not very big at all... both should be great... but 5 years down the road, Utley should be in his decline phase (32 years old), while Wright will have just reached his peak (28 years old)... that is the difference 4 years make... if it was only one or two then the argument about age not mattering as much would make sense.
Niffoc4
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1700
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 26 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Ender » Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:03 am

Its not just the age that scares me with Utley, its how far his raw skills jumped between last year(include MLE) and this year. When a player shows that large of a jump they almost never sustain it, they regress slightly the next year. I just don't think this will be a growth year for Utley, it will be a year where he consilidates his gains from last year. Wright on the other hand had almost exactly the same skillset as he did last year, I think growth is much more likely in his case.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby djacks » Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:26 am

tal1286 wrote:Just as a point about age vs. years in the majors. Aaron Small is the perfect example. He is around 35 years old. Now, he went 10-0 with a 3.2 ERA last season. For all intents and purposes that was basically his first year in a major role for a team. He had only started 3 games in the previous 10ish years of his career. Does anyone actually think that he has the chance to improve because this is his first season starting? Sure, he might, but I think most people would say he will be lucky to repeat his great year, or half year, I suppose. Why? Because he is 35 and doesn't have much room to improve cause hhe is old. Age is very important.



You cannot make the same comparison with hitters and pitchers. Aaron Small has been a RP for a long time...Utley has only been in the majors a couple of years with less than a full year of full time AB's...even if you could draw a comparison between hitters and pitcher, Utley didn't have 10+ seasons of pinch hitting and part-time play.

Age does play a difference in this comparison if your talking about a players peak and potential upside. Wright is definetly the choice in keeper leagues. But in a one year league its pretty close...I don't think you could go wrong either way. The point is they should both improve this year and that makes both of them very valuable.
"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."-Ayn Rand
djacks
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1262
Joined: 30 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Office

Postby TB13 » Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:08 pm

tal1286 wrote:Because he is 35 and doesn't have much room to improve cause hhe is old. Age is very important.


And if Utley was 34 years old last year, your point would be very valid. But there is a huge difference between Small and Utley.

[quote=Niffoc4]Amen... and age is very important... I would say the difference between Wright and Utley for next year is not very big at all... both should be great... but 5 years down the road, Utley should be in his decline phase (32 years old), while Wright will have just reached his peak (28 years old)... that is the difference 4 years make... if it was only one or two then the argument about age not mattering as much would make sense.[/quote]
Again, I agree as far as what happens in 5 years from now. But for the next 5 years, age is not a factor at all and is not an indicator of why Wright's numbers will improve, but Utley's won't. This is fantasy baseball, not real life. If Utley will land me better numbers for the next 5 years, in a keeper league I will worry about what happens in 5 years, 5 years down the line.

[quote=Ender]Its not just the age that scares me with Utley, its how far his raw skills jumped between last year(include MLE) and this year. When a player shows that large of a jump they almost never sustain it, they regress slightly the next year. I just don't think this will be a growth year for Utley, it will be a year where he consilidates his gains from last year. Wright on the other hand had almost exactly the same skillset as he did last year, I think growth is much more likely in his case. [/quote]

No offense, but this is just a case of pro-Wright bias. Utley has faced professionals for a far less amount of time than Wright has. A case can be made that he made his adjustment at a better clip than Wright has, given how much time Wright spend in the minors as opposed to Utley. His skills showed a major jumb because he adjusted to professional pitching. One can say that had Utley played and entire '04 season and the first quarter of teh '05 season, he would have made an even bigger adjustment and had better numbers.
TB13
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1197
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Xanadu

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact