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Postby TB13 » Wed Feb 01, 2006 9:53 am

The thread that refuses to die. I started it and think that my last contribution was in page 4 or 5. Typically, I would fall in with the "stats" crowd. But on this, it is more gut than anything else. As others have correctly pointed out that statistics favor Wright. However, I agree that people are underrating Utley in favor of someone who is more heralded.
However, statistically speaking, I can see why some prefer Wright. Maybe this just needs to be settled with a bet? ;-)
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Postby Art Vandelay » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:41 am

Wow...this thread got a little out of hand.

I think Wright will be better (this year and in the long run), but not because of any statistics. I used to work with a former MLB talent scout and general manager, and he has argued vehemently that Wright is the best offensive player under 25 in the league (even better than MCab, who he says has holes in his swing).
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Postby Ender » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:27 pm

for what its worth here is what PECOTA thinks of them.

Utley - 82 R, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 9 SB, .280 avg.
Wright - 98 R, 29 HR, 97 RBI, 17 SB, .299 avg.

So the computer seems to support the Wright side of things.
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Postby SilentReader » Thu Feb 02, 2006 4:35 pm

Wright's stats will probably be slightly better than Utley's this year, but don't forget about position scarcity. When you consider that, it's pretty much a tossup.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 02, 2006 5:46 pm

SilentReader wrote:Wright's stats will probably be slightly better than Utley's this year, but don't forget about position scarcity. When you consider that, it's pretty much a tossup.


See my earlier comments on positional scarcity. It's not clear to me that there's really an advantage of 2B over 3B in this respect.
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 02, 2006 6:39 pm

Ender wrote:for what its worth here is what PECOTA thinks of them.

Utley - 82 R, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 9 SB, .280 avg.
Wright - 98 R, 29 HR, 97 RBI, 17 SB, .299 avg.

So the computer seems to support the Wright side of things.



As I said way back in this thread, Wright is definitely worth more than Utley but no way is he worth that much more.

32 Runs / RBI
5 HR
8 SB and a 20 point BA difference is a significant difference in value.

I do expect Utley to regress a little on what he put up last season (especially BA) but I wouldn't have much confidence in any projection service that predicts he will have 40 less RBI / Runs when he's likely to have an extra 50 AB's and in a comparable batting lineup to 2005.
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Postby Ender » Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:31 pm

It gives him a 26% collapse rate which is pretty high. That means it thinks he has a 26% chance to actually lose 20% of his production. His breakout rate is only 16% so it thinks his chances of improving are pretty small.

If he's batting 2nd like they are talking about I do think he'll have fewer than 90 RBI this year and if his OBP does drop like most projections are saying he probably won't gain much in the R's department. I'd say that projection is a tad low as well unless he gets worse against lefties in which case he might lose playing time against them.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 02, 2006 8:06 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:As I said way back in this thread, Wright is definitely worth more than Utley but no way is he worth that much more.

32 Runs / RBI
5 HR
8 SB and a 20 point BA difference is a significant difference in value.

I do expect Utley to regress a little on what he put up last season (especially BA) but I wouldn't have much confidence in any projection service that predicts he will have 40 less RBI / Runs when he's likely to have an extra 50 AB's and in a comparable batting lineup to 2005.


I think you need to look closely at how the Phils have changed this last year. Losing Lofton, Thome, Michaels, and Polanco removes more than 1,000 plate appearances for guys that had OBP of .360, .376, .399, and .392. They add Rowand, Tucker, more PAs for Victorino--none of whom are likely to post an OBP over .340, if that. That's 30 to 60 fewer guys on base to score and knock people in.

I see the Phillies scoring 50-75 fewer runs this year, and wouldn't be surprised to see Utley drop 15-25 runs/rbis (the 35 they have is a little much).
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:10 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:As I said way back in this thread, Wright is definitely worth more than Utley but no way is he worth that much more.

32 Runs / RBI
5 HR
8 SB and a 20 point BA difference is a significant difference in value.

I do expect Utley to regress a little on what he put up last season (especially BA) but I wouldn't have much confidence in any projection service that predicts he will have 40 less RBI / Runs when he's likely to have an extra 50 AB's and in a comparable batting lineup to 2005.


I think you need to look closely at how the Phils have changed this last year. Losing Lofton, Thome, Michaels, and Polanco removes more than 1,000 plate appearances for guys that had OBP of .360, .376, .399, and .392. They add Rowand, Tucker, more PAs for Victorino--none of whom are likely to post an OBP over .340, if that. That's 30 to 60 fewer guys on base to score and knock people in.

I see the Phillies scoring 50-75 fewer runs this year, and wouldn't be surprised to see Utley drop 15-25 runs/rbis (the 35 they have is a little much).


And I think you need to have a look more closely at how much of an impact Thome and Polanco had on Utley's overall numbers.

Thome is a huge loss but he wasn't really a major contributing factor last season in Utley's numbers and neither for that matter was Polanco. Lofton was for sure but he did post an Avg. and OBP way above anything he's done since his Atlanta days so who knows what Rowand is capable of doing as his replacement.

I am confident the lineup is comparable and even if the 2006 version is slightly worse, to suggest Utley falls 35 runs / RBI's under his 2005 numbers with the probability of at least another 50 AB's is not credible in my mind.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:26 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:And I think you need to have a look more closely at how much of an impact Thome and Polanco had on Utley's overall numbers.

Thome is a huge loss but he wasn't really a major contributing factor last season in Utley's numbers and neither for that matter was Polanco. Lofton was for sure but he did post an Avg. and OBP way above anything he's done since his Atlanta days so who knows what Rowand is capable of doing as his replacement.

I am confident the lineup is comparable and even if the 2006 version is slightly worse, to suggest Utley falls 35 runs / RBI's under his 2005 numbers with the probability of at least another 50 AB's is not credible in my mind.


Howard basically replaces Thome/Polanco/Perez and probably works out to be a slight positive for the Phils.

It's the OF numbers that will be hardest to replace and regardless of what Lofton usually does, the Phils won't match what he did do last year.

The lineup won't match last year's numbers, but unless there's an important injury, they won't fall enough to reduce Utley's numbers that dramatically.
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