I don't understand something - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

I don't understand something

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby TB13 » Fri Jan 27, 2006 4:42 pm

BillyHallDisciple wrote:Again, what about factoring in position scarcity when comparing these two?

Sure, one could bring that factor in. However, I think that a case can be made for Utley based on pure numbers.
TB13
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1197
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Xanadu

Postby swyck » Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:36 pm

I agree with the case for Utley as being comparable right now to Wright.

However, if its a keeper, then taking age into account does apply. At 27 Utley should be hitting his peak. At 23 Wright should have room to increase his peak. Doesnt mean he will, but he's off to a good start. He had a good rookie season as well, better then Utley's, both of them playing part time. Over a 5 year span, with similar numbers in year one, I'd pick the younger player to do better over the next 5 years. Doesnt mean he will, but I'd go with those odds.

Number wise they are pretty close, and if I was just picking for this year, either one will look just fine in my lineup. ;-D
swyck
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 1524
(Past Year: 14)
Joined: 7 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby TB13 » Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:42 pm

swyck wrote:However, if its a keeper, then taking age into account does apply. At 27 Utley should be hitting his peak. At 23 Wright should have room to increase his peak.

I think that argument would hold if Utley was not a rookie last year. He was and as such, if you can make a case that Wright will improve, then you have to say that Utley will as well. I do not think that age will be much of a factor for the next 5 years. After that, sure, one could make the argument that Utley will be begin to decline. But there is no reason why he cannot, at a minimin, duplicate Wright's numbers for the next 5 years.
And given their respective ballparks, I would even say that he should be able to top Wright's numbers in most of those 5 years.
TB13
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1197
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Xanadu

Postby Ender » Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:44 pm

Wright 99-27-102-17-306
Utley 93-28-105-16-291


Wright hit for 15 points higher average with more AB's than utley, had more R+RBI and the same HR+SB. I don't know how that doesn't make Wrights numbers better than utley. Utley had a value of $29, wright had a value of $31. I simply responded to the original poster who had said Utley had a better year.

Considering that both were rookies last year, how does Wright have room to improve, while Utley does not? And again I ask, when looking at the next 5 years, how is age going to matter?


Utley had 134 AB's in 2003, 267 AB's in 2004. Furthermore he spent a lot longer time in the minors and so we have a more solid history of him. Last year he had his highest H% of the past 4 years(including minor league stats) and his highest power and speed by a good amount, while thats not completely unheard of in a 27 year old its still unlikely that he keeps it up withi such a large spike and is likely to regress at least a little bit. I think utley might 'grow into' his previous season and repeat it as his upside, his downside is a slight regression especially in power.

Wright had 263 AB's the previous year and fewer years in the minors. In 2004 his contact rate was actually better and his H% almost matched, his power was exactly the same, his SB rate was actually down(when including minor league stats). This suggests that he basically had the same year as in 2004 last year, as a 23 year old he should almost surely be improving more and unlike Utley he didn't have a huge leap in ability that he most likely won't maintain, his stats were very steady and I'd expect his upside to be an improvement accross the board and his downside to be a repeat of last year.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby dannahann » Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:40 pm

I know you're arguing against those 4 years meaning much, but truth is Wright put up that monster 2005 season in the majors at 23 years old. In contrast, Utley at 23 hit .263 with 17HR and a .796 OPS at AAA Scanton/Wilkes-Barre. That DOES matter.
dannahann
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 1991
(Past Year: 39)
Joined: 26 Jun 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Missouri

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:42 pm

TB13 wrote:How did Wright have a better year? Utley had 32 less at-bats. He batted .291, 28 hrs, scored 93 runs & had 105 rbi's & an OPS of .915. Wright batted .306, scored 99 runs, 27hrs, had 102 rbi's & an OPS of .912.
Stolen bases? Wright had 17 & Utley had 16.
Utley did not start to figure out how to hit lefties until around August. NZF makes a point about age difference and potential. However, it is not like we are talking about a 30 year-old late boomer. Wright is 23 & Utley is 27. So what? How will that matter over the next 5 years? That is not an indicator that Wright's stats will get better, while Utley's will not. The age difference is not going to matter much over the next 5 years. Potential? Who said that Wright had more potential? Where is that written? Utley was a very highly regarded prospect. What is the indication that Wright has more?
Belive me, I am not arguing that Wright is not a top-flight player (though I do think he is getting a tad overrated). However, to simply dismiss Utley as an inferior talent is baseless.


I don't think anyone's dismissing Utley, but the facts show that there is a MUCH higher probability that Utley has peaked, while a much higher probability that Wright will improve. Historically, players under age 27 improve 2-5 percent per year. So, over the next 5 years, you can expect Wright to improve, while Utley should be expected to plateau, and then decline.


TB13 wrote:I see no indication of who one can make a claim that over the next 5 years Wright will have better #'s than Utley will. Personally, given the ballpark that they play in, I would say that Utley is a better bet to put up better numbers.


The ball park is already incorporated in the numbers we are looking at. So, you can't "count" it again.

TB13 wrote:This is just a debate off course, but I welcome all opinions and would like to know if people think that I am wrong, then why.


There are a few other things to keep in mind. First, it's always dangerous to make projections based on one year. So, let's just compare these two players on the basis of the last two years:
Wright's OPS: .857 and .911
Utley's OPS: .776 and .916
Now, a good statistician will tell you that it's much more likely that in the next year, the first player will outplay the second. And, if we extended this analysis back 3 or 4 years, a similar difference in these levels of performance would be noticeable. So, it's somewhat more likely that Utley was playing a little over his head last year.

Second, at least the CBS sportsline line-ups show both of these guys batting 5th this year. But, last year, one-quarter of Utley's ABs were in the 6 and 7 slots and almost half of them were in the 2 and 3 slots. Wright, on the other hand, had fewer than 40 ABs above the 5th slot last year and almost half his ABs were in slots 6 and 7. So, Wright is going to get much more of an improvement from the line-up change.

Position scarcity is more in Utley's favor, but maybe not as much as you would think. In addition to Wright, there was one two 3B who earned $30. There were also one 2B who reached that level. And Figgins who qualified for both.

In the $25-30 range there were no 3B and 2 2B (including Utley).

In the $20-25 range, you had 1 3B, but you had 2 2B (Kent and F. Lopez who had eligibility in most leagues).

It's only in the $15-20 range that you start to see the depth of 3B.

But, keep in mind, 4 of the RoY candidates last year were 2B, while just one was 3B. And, this year, while 3B adds Zimmerman, Marte, and Encarnacion, 2B adds Kinsler, Barfield, and Aaron Hill. I'm not sure that there is nearly as big a positional scarcity argument as might have been true in prior years.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:47 pm

TB13 wrote:I think that argument would hold if Utley was not a rookie last year. He was and as such, if you can make a case that Wright will improve, then you have to say that Utley will as well. I do not think that age will be much of a factor for the next 5 years. After that, sure, one could make the argument that Utley will be begin to decline. But there is no reason why he cannot, at a minimin, duplicate Wright's numbers for the next 5 years.
And given their respective ballparks, I would even say that he should be able to top Wright's numbers in most of those 5 years.


The argument holds regardless of rookie status. The key factor in development is not number of years at a level, but age.

In fact, given their respective performances, you can spot a systematic advantage for Wright. He makes adjustments very quickly, a sign that as pitchers "figure him out", he'll adjust and react better. Look how quickly he went from AA to AAA to MLB star, with hardly a hitch. It took Utley much longer because, while he's a great player, in essence, he's a slower learner than Wright. Next year, when pitchers change the way they work on them, who's likely to make the quicker adjustments. The guy who's proven he can do it rapidly, or the guy who took a couple of years to get it?
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Tavish » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:13 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:In fact, given their respective performances, you can spot a systematic advantage for Wright. He makes adjustments very quickly, a sign that as pitchers "figure him out", he'll adjust and react better. Look how quickly he went from AA to AAA to MLB star, with hardly a hitch. It took Utley much longer because, while he's a great player, in essence, he's a slower learner than Wright. Next year, when pitchers change the way they work on them, who's likely to make the quicker adjustments. The guy who's proven he can do it rapidly, or the guy who took a couple of years to get it?


Wright didn't progress through the minors faster than Utley. Utley was drafted out of college and Wright out of High School. Wright played more games with more ABs in the minors. Utley's progress was also slowed by the Phillies' determination to play Polanco through the 04 season and even into the 05, while Wright had the complete backing of the Mets organization.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11070
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby RugbyD » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:20 pm

RugbyD wrote:stolen bases

not sure who i was thinking of at 2B when i said this. retracted.
TennCare rocks!!!!
RugbyD
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 5591
Joined: 7 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: punting small dogs and being surly

Postby NZF » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:32 pm

dannahann wrote:I know you're arguing against those 4 years meaning much, but truth is Wright put up that monster 2005 season in the majors at 23 years old. In contrast, Utley at 23 hit .263 with 17HR and a .796 OPS at AAA Scanton/Wilkes-Barre. That DOES matter.


In fact Wright was only 22 when he "put up that monster season", he's only just turned 23 but your point is a good one.
When you're right no one remembers, when you're wrong no one forgets - NZF
NZF
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4795
Joined: 19 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Sitting in the Cake Tin enjoying a cold Speights

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: scarnicease and 8 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Monday, Sep. 22
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Baltimore at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Seattle at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
Chi White Sox at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
St. Louis at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Houston at Texas
(8:05 pm)

Sunday, Aug. 31

Cleveland at Cody
(8:07 pm)
indoors

Monday, Sep. 22

Arizona at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
LA Angels at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
San Francisco at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
Colorado at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact