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Would you be comfortable with Felix as your ace?

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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:49 pm

Oswalt was somewhere around the 7th-9th most valuable SP last year. I understand that a lot of that value came from Wins and that his WHIP was barely positive value in 12-team 5x5. There are quite a few aces I'd rather have than Oswalt but last year you could grab Oz as your ace in the 3rd round and he put up ace-value. The reason I brought up his name is because he'll likely be the last ace left before you're left with the choice of gambling on someone like Felix.
Last edited by Amazinz on Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:53 pm

Amazinz wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
Yoda wrote:No way. You don't want to be risking your entire season on a rookie no matter who it is. Just not smart to play it that way.


Fortunately, Hernandez is not a rookie.


Technically no he's not. Realistically yes he is. He won't have a complete season under his belt until halfway through the season.


So, David Wright was a rookie entering last season?

I think so.


His rookie season was 2004 when he had more than the minimum 130 ABs.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:55 pm

Tavish wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
Amazinz wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
Yoda wrote:No way. You don't want to be risking your entire season on a rookie no matter who it is. Just not smart to play it that way.


Fortunately, Hernandez is not a rookie.


Technically no he's not. Realistically yes he is. He won't have a complete season under his belt until halfway through the season.


So, David Wright was a rookie entering last season?

I think so.


His rookie season was 2004 when he had more than the minimum 130 ABs.


Technically (MLB standards) he was not a rookie. But from my perspective and how I go about evaluating players for the upcoming season he was.
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Postby Half Massed » Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:42 pm

I wouldn't choose to have Felix as my ace, but I'd accept him as it. I wouldn't take him if there's more proven options out there, but if I haven't taken any pitchers and the top guys are all gone, then I'd definitely take him.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Jan 23, 2006 11:28 pm

Just because there's 5 sp better then Oswalt, doesn't mean he's not a ace.

10th in DIPS era

He was unlucky last year.
He ranked 73rd in run support at 4.28.
He had 6 tough losses, even more then Clemens.
He might give up a few extra hits, but his high G/F ratio, and his excellent hr/9 save him.
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Postby Music2004Man » Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:30 am

HOOTIE wrote:Just because there's 5 sp better then Oswalt, doesn't mean he's not a ace.

10th in DIPS era

He was unlucky last year.
He ranked 73rd in run support at 4.28.
He had 6 tough losses, even more then Clemens.
He might give up a few extra hits, but his high G/F ratio, and his excellent hr/9 save him.


Wow, he was 73rd in the league in run support and still won 20 games. That's impressive. I think that you could probably draft Oz and Felix in about the same spot in the draft this year. If it's a redraft I would take Oz and if it's a keeper I would probably draft Felix. There is no way that Felix should be your ace unless you are in a 10-14 team league and you are in the 12-14 draft position. Most people draft lots of bats first because hitters are more consistant. If you pick your first SP in the 4th or 5th round Felix will probably be one of the best available starters.
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Postby puckyou21 » Tue Jan 24, 2006 10:53 am

I fully plan on Felix being my #1 and it doesn't bother me a bit.

But it is in a keeper league where I'm protecting Tejada, M Cab, Crawford, Bay, and VMart

I still wouldn't be hesitant in a redraft to take him as my ace, provided that there are no stud bats available. I think hitting is way more valuable. But if everything fell right I'd be more than happy with Felix.

It's not just that he's going to be a stud, it's that he already is a stud.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 24, 2006 2:26 pm

HOOTIE wrote:He ranked 73rd in run support at 4.28.
He had 6 tough losses, even more then Clemens.

This, fantasy wise, would be lucky in Oswalt's favor.

The run support is pulled down by those tough losses, meaning he had a lot more high run support games to buoy the run support. In other words, the median of his run support value is probably a little higher than the league average. Sure, he lost some tough games, but a loss and a no decision are essentially the same thing in a 5x5; Clemens had more good starts not end as wins than Oswalt did and that's all that really matters.

And, by the way, the Astros averaged 4.27 runs a game anyway...contextually Oswalt's run support mean wasn't unlucky by any means.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:26 pm

OK, I just had to bump this one up for a laugh.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:05 pm

Yoda wrote:
shortsavage wrote:
Yoda wrote:No way. You don't want to be risking your entire season on a rookie no matter who it is. Just not smart to play it that way.


Fortunately, Hernandez is not a rookie.


Let me rephrase that:

You don't want to be risking your entire season on a 2nd year player who has yet to pitch an entire season in the MLB.


Damn you guys need to start pulling up threads where I was completely off my rocker... B-)
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