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SB Cheat Sheet: Pitcher Matchups

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SB Cheat Sheet: Pitcher Matchups

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:14 pm

It's a little early, but I'm playing during timeouts of the PSU-OSU game, so I thought I'd provide a little cheat sheet. Many fantasy players focus on the catcher as they decide who to start, but anyone who has played baseball knows that often a SB is as much on the pitcher as the catcher. Keep in mind that preventing SBs is teamwork between pitcher, catcher, and IF, so changing teams and personnel can change this. But, here are the top 25 pitchers to run on and the top 10 in preventing SBs from 2005:

Pitcher, SBs, CS%
Millwood, 33, 15%
Maddux, 32, 20%
Contreras, 28, 7%
Moyer, 27, 21%
Webb, 26, 13%
Jamey Wright, 25, 22%
VZambrano, 25, 14%
Schmidt, 24, 25%
Burnett, 24, 20%
Zito, 22, 15%
RLopez, 22, 21%
Weaver, 20, 23%
JSosa, 20, 5% !!!!!!!!
Lowe, 19, 24%
Lidle, 19, 24%
ElDuque, 19, 10%
Garcia, 19, 21%
Peavy, 19, 21%
Haren, 19, 21%
Wells, 15, 17%
Myers, 15, 21%
Benson, 14, 0%
Lawrence, 13, 19%
Claussen, 12, 8%
Blanton, 8, 11%

S-T-O-P
Maroth, 4, 75%
Kazmir, 7, 56%
Chacin, 8, 56%
Harang, 9, 50%
Lowry, 9, 47%
lHernandez, 14, 44%
Fogg, 9, 44%
JJohnson, 11, 42%
Lackey, 11, 42%
Hudson, 10, 41%
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Postby smoovethug » Sun Jan 22, 2006 12:55 am

Wow. Good stuff! ;-D I don't really look that deep into it but it's nice to see. I notice that most of the guys not to run on are lefties. Most lefties are hard to steal on. Wakefield should be on there for one to run against with his slow pitches and delivery, and Pettitte should be on there for one who holds baserunners, his pickoff move is nasty.
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Postby OhMrScottyTrav06 » Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:33 am

smoovethug wrote:Wow. Good stuff! ;-D I don't really look that deep into it but it's nice to see. I notice that most of the guys not to run on are lefties. Most lefties are hard to steal on. Wakefield should be on there for one to run against with his slow pitches and delivery, and Pettitte should be on there for one who holds baserunners, his pickoff move is nasty.


Yeah, if I was on first against Pettitte, I'd just stay on the base until he commits home.
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Postby Andy1234 » Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:54 am

What were your qualifications for this list, both lists? I was wondering why a few names were left off.

Worst:
Why not RJ who allowed 23 SB last year? or Wakefield who allowed 18?

Best:
Why not Washburn who only allowed 6 SB attemts last year and zero were successful. Or Zambrano, with only 1 SBA in 10 attempts? Willis and Carpenter each only allowed 1 SB and only 6 attepts.


My source for these stats was ESPN.com
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Postby George_Foreman » Sun Jan 22, 2006 3:46 am

The "top 30" and "top 10" were according to SB success rate, or "stolen bases against"/"attempted steals against". The total SBA was also given as something of an "FYI".

In all truth, I'm not really certain how important these numbers are. Is there any way we could see what proportion of total bases stolen were stolen against the "worst 30" as opposed to, say, the porportion of IP pitched by these guys as compared to the total of IP in MLB? Or maybe just amongst starters?

Something like this would give us a decent idea of just how much variance there is for this sort of thing. Also, a couple years worth of data would be good, too.

And for whatever it's worth, I'm just trying to point out the limitations fo the data presented. It is most appreciated that GTWMA would post this much, and there is certainly useful information to be gained from it.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:20 am

smoovethug wrote:Wow. Good stuff! ;-D I don't really look that deep into it but it's nice to see. I notice that most of the guys not to run on are lefties. Most lefties are hard to steal on. Wakefield should be on there for one to run against with his slow pitches and delivery, and Pettitte should be on there for one who holds baserunners, his pickoff move is nasty.


Wakefield did a pretty nice job with his C getting 28% of SB attempts. I tried to confine the list to those who had both many SBs AND a low success rate. I let a few guys with fewer SBs, but better success rates (Myers, Lawrence, Wells) nudge Wakefield off the list. He should probably get a better look.

I left the STOP list short so that I can go back and look at guys like Pettitte. Guys good at preventing SBs often have few SB attempts. I tired to look at guys that had at least 15 SB attempts on them, and Pettitte was below that.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:24 am

Andy1234 wrote:What were your qualifications for this list, both lists? I was wondering why a few names were left off.

Worst:
Why not RJ who allowed 23 SB last year? or Wakefield who allowed 18?

Best:
Why not Washburn who only allowed 6 SB attemts last year and zero were successful. Or Zambrano, with only 1 SBA in 10 attempts? Willis and Carpenter each only allowed 1 SB and only 6 attepts.


My source for these stats was ESPN.com


RJ also caught 38 percent of runners and had 4 pickoffs. I tired to focus on guys who were run on a lot AND did not catch many of them. Same for Wakefield (who allowed 25), although the case fo rhim is much better, I think.

See my comment above for the STOP list. I want to go back and add guys like that, but before doing that I want to look at prior year data to make sure the low numbers are not just a fluke.

By the way, I'll try to dig up my post from 2005 on this and link it here, too.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:53 am

George_Foreman wrote:The "top 30" and "top 10" were according to SB success rate, or "stolen bases against"/"attempted steals against". The total SBA was also given as something of an "FYI".

In all truth, I'm not really certain how important these numbers are. Is there any way we could see what proportion of total bases stolen were stolen against the "worst 30" as opposed to, say, the porportion of IP pitched by these guys as compared to the total of IP in MLB? Or maybe just amongst starters?

Something like this would give us a decent idea of just how much variance there is for this sort of thing. Also, a couple years worth of data would be good, too.

And for whatever it's worth, I'm just trying to point out the limitations fo the data presented. It is most appreciated that GTWMA would post this much, and there is certainly useful information to be gained from it.


I first just listed the top 30 or so in SBs (not SB attempts, George; that first number is the actual number of bases stolen on the pitcher)

I then listed out the bottom 40 in CS%. I limited that to those with at least 15 attempts to eliminate guys with such low numbers that they might be unreliable.

You'd be surprised at how much overlap there was. Other than RJ, Wakefield, Patterson, and Francis, all the guys on the "most SBs" list was on the "low CS%" list. I rounded out the list with a few guys that had fewer total SBs, but poor CS%

I agree that the list may have marginal utility, and those are good suggestions, George. Getting IP together and a bottom 25 will take a little time. But, here's a quick check. There were about 2,500 SBs last year. These 25 pitchers represent about 20% of all SBs. They represent about 16% of SP (25/(5*30)). The bottom 10 I listed represent 3% of SBs, but 6% of SP.

Since just a few SBs can pick up important points, I think this can probably gain you 5 or 10 over the course of a season.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:57 am

Thought I had a longer list, but this is the one I found..

http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... ht=pitcher
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Postby wrveres » Sun Jan 22, 2006 2:00 pm

GTWMA ...

Nice list ..

Your right, Not to many people focus on Pitchers ..
I put out a cheat sheet for Catchers every year, and I always look for a lefty on the mound, but this is good stuff..

How about coming up with a combo rating .. ?
A Pitcher/Catcher combo type pct ...
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