Lofunzo wrote:Wright hit .306 with 99 runs, 27HR, 102RBIs, and 17 steals.
Cabrera hit .323 with 106 runs, 33HR, 116RBIs, and 1 steal.
Looks like a 4-1 Cabrera victory to me. That said, I love Wright as a player. Just be careful. He got his steals hitting in different spots in the lineup. Not sure that they will want him running as much from the 3 hole.
I agree that Cabrera was the clear cut winner last year but lets look at some of these numbers.
Average - MCAB 323 to Wright 306
This is a fairly significant difference and I think that this category will still be in MCabs favor. He loses a lot of protection this year but that won't effect his average. I would say that MCAB is perfectly capable of hitting 320 again with Wright taking a slight upswing to 310.
Runs - MCab - 106 to Wright 99
MCab had Delgado Encarnacion and LoDuca hitting behind him. I have to be honest that I don't know exactly how the Marlins lineup is going to shake out but he doesn't have much protection and even with his walks/OBP going up I only see him scoring 95-100 runs next year.
Wright hit 5th - 7th last year in the Mets lineup so at best he had Piazza and Cameron/Diaz behind him in the lineup. It looks like he's going to be moved up to third in the lineup this year with Delgado and Floyd hitting behind him. That can only help his run totals and I can see him putting up about 110.
Homeruns: MCab 33 Wright 27
I see both players improving this year in homeruns. It would be really interesting to see what they could do in better ballparks. I see MCab hitting 36 this year because of personal growth but I think it could be higher with maybe 40 being a possibility if he was given more at bats (instead of being walked). I see Wright also improving and closing the gap. I think that he will hit 32 next year. He'll be higher in the lineup and get more at bats which combined with his natural progression leads to the improved numbers.
RBI: MCab - 116 Wright 102
MCab will decline because he had Pierre and Castillo hitting in front of him last year. They had OBP's of 327 and 390 respectively. I can't see the top 2 spots of the Marlins lineup putting up a cumulative OBP of 358 (though if Hermida hits in the 2 spot they could be close). I think MCab will knock in 100 - 105.
Wright knocked in 102 last year and will have Reyes and Beltran hitting in front of him this year. I actually don't think that helps him too much over what he produced last year but I think an increase in at bats and a slight rebound from Beltran with some slight progression from Reyes could lead to him knocking in 110 runs.
SB: MCab 1 Wright 17
I think that MCab will probably produce a stolen base or two again this year. I also believe that Wright will bring in the reins alittle since he'll be hitting third in the lineup. After saying this though I can still see him putting up 10 SB's in limited opportunities.
As you can see I think that MCab had the distinct advantage last year (4- 1) but because of a change in protection/top of the order OBP from MCab, and Wright moving to the 3 spot in the lineup I have Wright up 3-2 for next year. MCab closes the gap slightly because of dual eligibility but I still have Wright ahead.