David Wright > Miguel Cabrera

[Music2004Man]

Wright hit .306 with 99 runs, 27HR, 102RBIs, and 17 steals.

Cabrera hit .323 with 106 runs, 33HR, 116RBIs, and 1 steal.

Looks like a 4-1 Cabrera victory to me. That said, I love Wright as a player. Just be careful. He got his steals hitting in different spots in the lineup. Not sure that they will want him running as much from the 3 hole.

I agree that Cabrera was the clear cut winner last year but lets look at some of these numbers.

Average - MCAB 323 to Wright 306

This is a fairly significant difference and I think that this category will still be in MCabs favor. He loses a lot of protection this year but that won't effect his average. I would say that MCAB is perfectly capable of hitting 320 again with Wright taking a slight upswing to 310.

Advantage MCAB

Runs - MCab - 106 to Wright 99

MCab had Delgado Encarnacion and LoDuca hitting behind him. I have to be honest that I don't know exactly how the Marlins lineup is going to shake out but he doesn't have much protection and even with his walks/OBP going up I only see him scoring 95-100 runs next year.

Wright hit 5th - 7th last year in the Mets lineup so at best he had Piazza and Cameron/Diaz behind him in the lineup. It looks like he's going to be moved up to third in the lineup this year with Delgado and Floyd hitting behind him. That can only help his run totals and I can see him putting up about 110.

Advantage: Wright

Homeruns: MCab 33 Wright 27

I see both players improving this year in homeruns. It would be really interesting to see what they could do in better ballparks. I see MCab hitting 36 this year because of personal growth but I think it could be higher with maybe 40 being a possibility if he was given more at bats (instead of being walked). I see Wright also improving and closing the gap. I think that he will hit 32 next year. He'll be higher in the lineup and get more at bats which combined with his natural progression leads to the improved numbers.

Advantage: MCab

RBI: MCab - 116 Wright 102

MCab will decline because he had Pierre and Castillo hitting in front of him last year. They had OBP's of 327 and 390 respectively. I can't see the top 2 spots of the Marlins lineup putting up a cumulative OBP of 358 (though if Hermida hits in the 2 spot they could be close). I think MCab will knock in 100 - 105.

Wright knocked in 102 last year and will have Reyes and Beltran hitting in front of him this year. I actually don't think that helps him too much over what he produced last year but I think an increase in at bats and a slight rebound from Beltran with some slight progression from Reyes could lead to him knocking in 110 runs.

Advantage: Wright

SB: MCab 1 Wright 17

I think that MCab will probably produce a stolen base or two again this year. I also believe that Wright will bring in the reins alittle since he'll be hitting third in the lineup. After saying this though I can still see him putting up 10 SB's in limited opportunities.

Advantage: Wright

As you can see I think that MCab had the distinct advantage last year (4- 1) but because of a change in protection/top of the order OBP from MCab, and Wright moving to the 3 spot in the lineup I have Wright up 3-2 for next year. MCab closes the gap slightly because of dual eligibility but I still have Wright ahead.

[Simulacrum]

I'll take Wright due to the lack of offense around Miggy

Exactly. I think Cabrera's the better hitter this year, but their respective lineups are on opposite ends of the spectrum.

[bellings]

I'll take Wright due to the lack of offense around Miggy

Exactly. I think Cabrera's the better hitter this year, but their respective lineups are on opposite ends of the spectrum.

Jason Bay put up .306 32 101 110, and no one else on his team could even manage 13 homers. Does anyone think that Bay is a better hitter than Cabrera?

[cordscords]

I'll take Wright due to the lack of offense around Miggy

Exactly. I think Cabrera's the better hitter this year, but their respective lineups are on opposite ends of the spectrum.

Jason Bay put up .306 32 101 110, and no one else on his team could even manage 13 homers. Does anyone think that Bay is a better hitter than Cabrera?

Good example, but Bay played with guys who had at least 1 full year of major league experience around him. Miggy will have a bunch of inexperienced hitters who might not be that patient at the plate quite yet.

I do think that bodes well for him in the 2nd half as the hitters get more comfortable. So if Miggy is struggling early: Buy Low!

[Amazinz]

Unfortunately I doubt Wright bats #3 although he should.

Wright will most likely bat 5/6.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Unfortunately I doubt Wright bats #3 although he should.

Wright will most likely bat 5/6.

I can't see them batting him 6th, can you? In any case, the point is that Wright had 43% of his ABs come batting 6th and 7th last year, and that ain't going to to happen this year. That should boost his R and RBIs at or above Cabrera's level.

[Music2004Man]

Why wouldn't he bat 3rd? What do you think the Mets lineup will look like?

[Ender]

Bay had 432 PA of .380 OBP Matt Lawton in front of him. But yeah Bay shows that the stats still come. Point is on a real team with Bay's numbers he'd be at like 125 RBI and 115 R's. To expect Mcab to go from Castillo before him and delgado after him to a couple of unproven guys and maintain his R/RBI is asking too much. He's going to take a 10-15 R/RBI hit most likely to his stats.

[Amazinz]

Things could change during spring training but Randolph has said in interviews that he sees Lo Duca as a #2, Beltran #3 and Delgado #4. That leaves Wright and Floyd at #5 and #6. Randolph believes in L-R-L almost to a fault so #5 seems most likely. Shouldn't have said #6.

[Tavish]

...steals are becoming much easier to cover with the higher number of productive 40 steal players.

I agree that steals aren't that valuable because there seem to be a whole lot of players that can steal quite a bit.

Only Chone Figgins (62), Jose Reyes (60), Scott Podsednik (59), Juan Pierre (57), Carl Crawford (46), Rafael Furcal (46), and Jimmy Rollins (41) - seven players total - stole more than 40 bases last season. Five players stole 40+ in 2004, six players stole 40+ in 2003, five stole 40+ in 2002, five in 2001, and six in 2000.

I don't think there is significant enough change to alter the value of a player who can steal more bases than the average starter player in the league.

Its a matter of projections to me. Right now I have 19 players down as making 30+ SB next season, almost twice what I had for last season and 10 having a valid shot at being right around or above 40.

Wright's SB out of the 3B spot still has great value, just not enough to make up for the differences I have projected in the other categories and to cover the added benefit of OF eligibility.