David Wright > Miguel Cabrera

[shortsavage]

I believe there is a case to be made that David Wright had more value to fantasy owners than Miguel Cabrera last season.


Wright hit .306 with 99 runs, 27HR, 102RBIs, and 17 steals.

Cabrera hit .323 with 106 runs, 33HR, 116RBIs, and 1 steal.


Using standard deviation from my calculation of the average 2005 major league position starting player .267BA, 62 runs, 14HR, 67 RBIs, and 9 SB (I know this is not a perfect average...I'm working on it ), I have Wright as being ever so slightly better than Cabrera last year.

Even if you don't agree that Wright was better, I don't think it is far fetched to call them players of very similar value.

Furthermore, Wright and Cabrera are both going to be 23 in baseball years (age as of 7/1) next season, but Cabrera has had 692 more regular season major league at bats than Wright. So, I don't think it is out of line to say that Wright has more room to get better (especially in terms of batting average) than Cabrera does.

Of course, Wright will need to match or improve upon his 2005 steals total to rival or better Cabrera 2006. With all the running that the Mets do and my perception of Wright as a hard worker who will find a way to improve his basestealing ability - barring injury - I don't see why he wouldn't get 17+ steals in 2006.

Thus, until I am presented with an arguement that shatters the one I presented above, I intend to rank David Wright as my #2 5x5 fantasy baseball third baseman behind Alex Rodriguez and ahead of Cabrera.

[AcidRock23]

Interesting argument. I think that the fact that Wright has more room to grow is a very valid one. Not to mention some SB tossed in to boot. I'd almost guarantee that he might sneak by a few picks or even maybe a round later depending on the breaks in your draft.

[Tavish]

For as much value as you are giving to steals I'm wondering how Figgins doesn't destroy both of them.

That being said I have Cabrera as being slightly more valuable than Wright last season ($34 vs $29 earnings) and the gap closing somewhat this season. They should have very similar earnings although in most cases I would rather have Cabrera with the extra eligibility and steals are becoming much easier to cover with the higher number of productive 40 steal players.

[shortsavage]

For as much value as you are giving to steals I'm wondering how Figgins doesn't destroy both of them.

Besides Ricky Henderson, I cannot think of many players who have consistently stolen well-above the league average number of bases for more than three years in a row over the last fifteen years. I'm sure there are guys besides Henderson, but the fact that I cannot think of them off the top of my head shows that they are likely few and far between. So, I have trouble ranking guys who rely heavily upon stealing bases as stable offensive players.

Still, Figgins is my #4 3B for 2006 at the moment.


P.S. I see lots of Cabrera votes but only one pro-Cabrera arguement.

[acescount]

i'd say wright b/c, at this point, cabrera has no offense whatsoever around him, compared to wright's delgado and potentially huge beltran. I agree that steals aren't that valuable because there seem to be a whole lot of players that can steal quite a bit. Wright's numbers weren't too far behind cabrera's last year, and i see him as having more potential because he's a "newer" player. right now, i have wright as the second best person between alex and cabrera.

[shortsavage]

...steals are becoming much easier to cover with the higher number of productive 40 steal players.

I agree that steals aren't that valuable because there seem to be a whole lot of players that can steal quite a bit.

Only Chone Figgins (62), Jose Reyes (60), Scott Podsednik (59), Juan Pierre (57), Carl Crawford (46), Rafael Furcal (46), and Jimmy Rollins (41) - seven players total - stole more than 40 bases last season. Five players stole 40+ in 2004, six players stole 40+ in 2003, five stole 40+ in 2002, five in 2001, and six in 2000.

I don't think there is significant enough change to alter the value of a player who can steal more bases than the average starter player in the league.

[AcidRock23]

I'm too waffly to vote though, I just think that it's a good observation. I kind of think that it'll be close and could go either way and it doesn't really matter but MCab was in ESPN Mag w/ women in bikinis last year so I'm SURE that someone in our league will pick him first. So the best VALUE would be similar numbers (w/ bonus SB as a toss in...) a few picks later. I guess Wright is ranked right up there too but a bit lower in most cases. Which = value.

OK, I'll go vote, what the heck...

[AtlDynasty25]

I'll take Wright due to the lack of offense around Miggy

[pokerplaya]

I am a huge Wright supporter, and have followed him since I saw him at AA. Probably my favorite player, I'd still draft Miggy over Wright, though this could be the last year as Wright has nowhere to go but up, and Miggy has to deal with the AAA All Star team Florida Marlins.

[bellings]

If we use those estimates, I'd easily take Cabrera. He wins in 4 of 5 cats, and he wins big in BA. That may not look like a lot, but Cabrera alone could let you suffer through Dunn.