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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:59 pm

i pretty much stop doing real work on friday at noon. i got to thinking that since looper was a closer he probably faced more lefties than a typical set up man so projecting his numbers as a set up man would require you to adjust for a different percentage of lefties faced. i also wanted to make an adjustment to remove 2005 since he was suffering a shoulder ailment that year. from 03-04 looper faced roughly 54% righties and 46% lefties. from 04-05 tavarez faced 69% righties to 31% lefties. i used looper's 03-04 averages and re-levered them using the 69% righty to 31% lefty which i figure is more how larussa will use him. anyway the result was .256 baa/.310obp/.334slg/.644ops. that is pretty similar to 2004 tavarez. so basically i think he will end up doing fine. perhaps overpaid, but its not my money.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Dec 16, 2005 6:34 pm

also, posted by brewdog over at vivaelbirdos.com
I think most of these guys were signed to face the big right handed bats of the opposing teams, which TLR focuses on those matchups more that anyone. So instead of looking at the general relief stats, lets focus on work only against Rightys, the stats tell a slightly different story:

ERA IP WHIP BB/9 K/9 H/9
Farnsworth 3.39 127.3 1.19 4.0 11.1 6.8
Howry 2.61 72.5 0.95 2.0 6.3 6.6
Looper 2.37 125.2 1.12 2.4 6.1 7.7
Tavarez 2.85 145.4 1.07 1.9 5.6 7.8

These look like we got a comparable pitcher to the others, althought his salary is high (but then this market is stupid). I think Looper will work out well for the Cards, Tavy just made me nervous.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Fri Dec 16, 2005 7:40 pm

Very nice. ;-D I was more surprised by the years, not the money when I read about it. :-? I thought he was looking for a one year deal to re-establish his value and sign a big deal next winter. :-?
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Postby stevethumb » Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:45 am

very nice analysis BUT none of those other guys had shoulder surgery in october...this is a big gamble but may pay off IF those above #s can be duplicated .. rincon struggled all yr and even had trouble getting lefties out...LHers hit .250 vs .200 the yr before..the cards 7th and 8th innings might last 2 hours w/larussa trying to match up flores looper rincon thompson cali..L-R-L-R-L
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Postby JTWood » Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 am

stevethumb wrote:the cards 7th and 8th innings might last 2 hours w/larussa trying to match up flores looper rincon thompson cali..L-R-L-R-L

Umm... Is this new? What was I watching last year?

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