Baseball Notebook top 100 prospects - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Minor League & College Baseball

Baseball Notebook top 100 prospects

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby thedude » Fri Jan 06, 2006 5:00 pm

dannyolbb wrote:From BN:

You know, I get these emails every year and usually I don't respond to rude readers but I couldn't resist this year because a baseball writer friend of mine sent me a copied thread from another site (to which I won't give a plug here for reasons that will become clear) where there's an ongoing discussion about my latest prospect lists and the readers there, en masse, are mocking the list and making fun of both it and for some reason, me personally. I continue to be amazed at how prospect values seem to have reached the stature of being almost self-evident, so much so that once a player graduates to the ranks of top prospect in a good publication like Baseball America (to which I remain a regular reader and for which I have great respect), that any prospect list that leaves off a so-called top or favorite prospect gets classified as a "joke" or isn't taken seriously. One reader in the thread in question even compared my successful ranking of a particular prospect no one else had on their lists a few years ago as a "blind squirrel finding a nut" and so I've decided to do a different type of response which I think will also benefit readers who do understand what we're trying to accomplish here.

In the near future, I'm going to not only re-publish all the former prospect lists going back as far as 1995 or 1996 but I'm also going to, in all future lists, show the average eventual statistical result for each prospect position. That is, when I rank a player as #1, I'll show you what the average eventual performance was for all former #1's on my list. I'm not afraid to do this because I know that our prospect ranking methods have worked and I think it will give readers a better sense of whether our prospect ranking methods have merit and should be taken seriously - and if I didn't believe in them, I'd stop publishing them as the annual top 100 prospect list is a free and non-guaranteed aspect of the site.

I think we've managed to gather all the lists together except for one, which was included as a supplementary insert in the pre-Internet hard copy newsletter in the December issue of 1997, one of our last before we moved to the Internet in April of 1998. For some reason, my copy is missing the insert so if any reader has a copy of that pre-Internet newsletter with the prospect insert, I'd appreciate that they fax a copy of the insert to us - the fax # is on our contact information at the BaseballNotebook.com web page. While I would normally accept an email, I'd like to see the actual sheet we mailed out and produced and for some reason I don't have my own copy. Also, we published two lists in 2002 and we'll be publishing the one that was confined to rookies only. Our official 2005 list will also have to be modified to have a version that includes rookies only so players like Felix Hernandez don't get unfairly carried over to benefit the results. Our 2004 list will use the consolidated version rather than that which was separated into leagues.


Anyone else think he's talking about us?
'


This guy recieved also most universal criticism for his list.


And for a guy who who made such a list which goes against the Scouts ranking and the savermetric ranking of prospects, he seems very surprised and defensive.
thedude
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 8413
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 18 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Good Life

Postby thedude » Fri Jan 06, 2006 5:09 pm

the abe Alverez ranking (#50) is very telling of what kind of time he put into the rankings. That would mean that this soft throwing lefty would be the top prospect in some systems. and at least among the top 5 in every system. From someone who has seen him pitch and looked at his numbers (4.85 era at triple A last year) he is a number 5 big league starter at best. AT BEST! He has below-average stuff. So it seems as though this ranking isn't from looking at his tools.

It seems as though he just throw this list togther from names he was familar with. MAYBE he did some work and has a rated a few guys that the top of his list, that Baseball America is underating. But he couldn't have actually done a lot of research and thought into the rest of his rankings (which i guess explains why they were out so much earlier than everyone elses).
thedude
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 8413
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 18 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Good Life

Previous

Return to Minor League & College Baseball

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Tuesday, Sep. 16
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
Washington at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
Miami at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Cincinnati at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Detroit at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Chi White Sox at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Cleveland at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Milwaukee at St. Louis
(8:15 pm)
LA Dodgers at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
San Francisco at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Seattle at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Texas at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Philadelphia at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact