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Do you make your own projections?

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Postby Dark Knight » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:25 pm

When I first started playing fantasy sports, I used to make cr@p loads of projection sheets. I got tired of doing all this work because projections are just opinions of a players future performance, based on his past performances, and every year half the good players from the past year bomb big time the following year due to poor performance or injury. I have been playing fantasy baseball, football, and basketball, for over 10 years now, so I am familiar enough with the players names and stat numbers to have a great draft without having to bring pages and pages full of my hopefull projections to the draft with me, and it saves me a lot of written guess work as well.
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Postby Valman » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:35 pm

Amen Dark Knight!! I played in a league with two so-called pro's. Writers and stat predictors. I finished ahead (3rd), in a 15 team league, of both. Luck, injuries and waiver wire is part of the process. Don't care who you are or how much time you spend on projections.
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Postby Valman » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:36 pm

Amen Dark Knight!! I played in a league with two so-called pro's. Writers and stat predictors. I finished ahead (3rd), in a 15 team league, of both. Luck, injuries and waiver wire is part of the process. Don't care who you are or how much time you spend on projections.
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Postby Valman » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:36 pm

Amen Dark Knight!! I played in a league with two so-called pro's. Writers and stat predictors. I finished ahead (3rd), in a 15 team league, of both. Luck, injuries and waiver wire is part of the process. Don't care who you are or how much time you spend on projections.
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Postby quietstorm » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:41 pm

Nice triple-post... anyway...

Valman wrote:Amen Dark Knight!! I played in a league with two so-called pro's. Writers and stat predictors. I finished ahead (3rd), in a 15 team league, of both. Luck, injuries and waiver wire is part of the process. Don't care who you are or how much time you spend on projections.
Finishing ahead of them one year means nothing. I finished second-to-last in my money league this past year, because it was a head-to-head league and I got unlucky draws, while outscoring my opponents by a wider margin than anybody else in the league.

You're right, luck is part of it -- but winning on luck one year is no reason to assume superiority. This was the first time I've finished out of the money in this league, but I'm there every year with my stack of projections and hand-scrawled notes and rankings about players.

Hell, usually, I even create myself a spreadsheet of injury risks and sleepers, just so I don't forget anything.

Different strokes for different folks, I suppose. Whatever works for you. Just don't assume that it works for everybody.
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
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Postby Pedantic » Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:56 pm

I finally got around to doing my own projections this year (well, sort of -- I still have over 100 pitchers to do :-D). I even put them in a database like I told myself I would. It does make things quite a bit easier. Dollar values at the click of a button. :-°

Those of you who do your own work, how many players do you usually do?
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Postby J35J » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:00 pm

Dark Knight wrote:When I first started playing fantasy sports, I used to make cr@p loads of projection sheets. I got tired of doing all this work because projections are just opinions of a players future performance, based on his past performances, and every year half the good players from the past year bomb big time the following year due to poor performance or injury. I have been playing fantasy baseball, football, and basketball, for over 10 years now, so I am familiar enough with the players names and stat numbers to have a great draft without having to bring pages and pages full of my hopefull projections to the draft with me, and it saves me a lot of written guess work as well.


For me doing all the work and bringing spreadsheets of rankings/predictions/projections/injury concerns and studying up on everyones tendancies and small details from year to year is just as much fun as the actually draft and the season. I've been playing for 8 years and I could draft without a single page of names but that isn't any fun! :-D

"Those of you who do your own work, how many players do you usually do?"

Around.......
30ish Catchers
50ish 1B/DH
40ish 2B
40ish 3B
40ish SS
125ish OF
130ish SP
60ish RP

I probably do much more than I need to but like I said above, doing all the rankings and predictions is what I like to do!!

Jason
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:28 pm

Iconoclastic wrote:I keep a document year round where I make fantasy baseball related notes and then a month before the draft starts I project and then rank them according to tier. I've been doing this for 7 years and I tweak the method every now and then.


I do this as well. I generally tweak my projections based on what I have gathered over the last year from a variety of sources.

looptid wrote:For $10 you can get the 2005 projections from Baseball Info Solutions, as another alternative to the PETCOA stuff at BP. Those same projections are in the 2006 Bill James Handbook, but you wouldn't have to go through the bother of entering them all into a spreadsheet or database.


I haven't had much success with Bill James the last 2-3 years. I would much prefer the info from BP. Be curious to see what others think though.

Pedantic wrote:Those of you who do your own work, how many players do you usually do?


I usually do the top 100 or so overall players and then rank by tier after that. Depending on how this experiment goes, I may do more this year.
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Postby looptid » Tue Dec 13, 2005 11:37 am

I don't know how many people even used the Baseball Info Solutions projections in the past because this is the first season they've done projections for pitchers. Just pointing out another baseball information company that offers projections.
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Tue Dec 13, 2005 11:47 am

I don't bother with any of this. I turn up with my brain and see what happens. :-o
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