Nice triple-post... anyway...
Valman wrote:Amen Dark Knight!! I played in a league with two so-called pro's. Writers and stat predictors. I finished ahead (3rd), in a 15 team league, of both. Luck, injuries and waiver wire is part of the process. Don't care who you are or how much time you spend on projections.
Finishing ahead of them one year means nothing. I finished second-to-last in my money league this past year, because it was a head-to-head league and I got unlucky draws, while outscoring my opponents by a wider margin than anybody else in the league.
You're right, luck is part of it -- but winning on luck one year is no reason to assume superiority. This was the first time I've finished out of the money in this league, but I'm there every year with my stack of projections and hand-scrawled notes and rankings about players.
Hell, usually, I even create myself a spreadsheet of injury risks and sleepers, just so I don't forget anything.
Different strokes for different folks, I suppose. Whatever works for you. Just don't assume that it works for everybody.
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...