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Do you make your own projections?

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Postby quietstorm » Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:09 am

shortsavage wrote:I think comparative rankings can be much more powerful than projections.
Comparative rankings are based on estimated projections in your mind. ;)
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:14 am

quietstorm wrote:
shortsavage wrote:I think comparative rankings can be much more powerful than projections.
Comparative rankings are based on estimated projections in your mind. ;)


But putting fluffy numbers next to your favorite names is easy to do with projections. I think it is easier to be objective when accounting for numerous variables to rank players.

Perhaps the definition of projections needs to be made clearer.
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Postby quietstorm » Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:15 am

Projections = objective. Predictions = subjective.
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:51 am

shortsavage wrote:I think comparative rankings can be much more powerful than projections.


The problem I see with rankings is that you can't see where you stand in various categories in roto. Projections allow you to track how your team stands with respect to team projections of HRs, SBs, etc. I use this to compare to levels I know I need to achieve to be competitive. With rankings, I can end up with a team that wins HRs by 100 dingers, but finishes next to last in three other cats because I wasn't paying attention to how the players fit together.
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Postby chadlincoln » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:43 am

I make my own. Usually takes me a month.
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Postby J35J » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:47 am

chadlincoln wrote:I make my own. Usually takes me a month.


I was beginning to think that I was the only one!!! It usually takes me a month or so as well!

Not big on letting someone else do the projections/predictions/rankings for me or letting some mathematical equations rank my guys for me, thats not very much fun? :-? I like to GM and make all the decisions for my team, not someone else or some mathematical equation? !+)


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Postby looptid » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:24 pm

For $10 you can get the 2005 projections from Baseball Info Solutions, as another alternative to the PETCOA stuff at BP. Those same projections are in the 2006 Bill James Handbook, but you wouldn't have to go through the bother of entering them all into a spreadsheet or database.
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Postby Iconoclastic » Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:36 pm

Isn't making your own projections a big part of the fun in fantasy baseball? I mean why draft according to what someone else's gut is telling them rather than your own?

I keep a document year round where I make fantasy baseball related notes and then a month before the draft starts I project and then rank them according to tier. I've been doing this for 7 years and I tweak the method every now and then.

Unless you're a professional fantasy baseball player, shelling out money to get someone else's input that you can get for free while taking the fun out of drafting doesn't seem good to me.
[b]Bold Predictions:[/b]

Grady Sizemore will have more value than Jason Bay regardless of draft position

Aramis Ramirez in 155 G will hit over .300 40 HR 110 RBIs

Brian McCann will have more value than Jorge Posada regardless of draft position
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Postby quietstorm » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:50 pm

Projections don't take the fun out of drafting. My fun comes from seeing how I can get players far later than they're really worth in the draft. Drafting Adam Dunn in the fourth or fifth round? That's fun. If you rely exclusively on somebody else's projections, yes, you're taking the fun out of it. But you're also going to lose, because you're not accounting for the fluid nature of a draft, so you're just overpaying for everybody.
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Postby RAmst23 » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:54 pm

I mix other's rankings what i believe and who I perceive will do better/worse this year. Doesn't get more scientific than that ;-)

Using other's rankings is fine, but I tweak them usually to determine whether I draft a player or let the guy go.
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