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Do you make your own projections?

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Do you make your own projections?

Postby Steve-o » Sun Dec 11, 2005 8:27 pm

I need some help creating my own projections this year. My league is drafting earlier than normal and I usually use a compilation of different sites that will not be up in time. Besides, I have been burned too often in the past.

So the question is, how do you normally create your projections?

I was thinking of taking baselines from last year, then adjusting that for career performances. This would take some of the up/down year effect away. Then I would consider the player’s age and how likely they are to increase (with peak years being between 27-30ish). Also involved in that would be the players peak potential based on my knowledge of that player. Then I would have to factor in changing teams, changing leagues, and positions in the lineup. That’s basically where I stand now.

Any suggestions on how heavily to weight certain categories? Anything else I missing? I know people here do their own projections and would love to try and avoid making some of the “rookie” mistakes.

Thanks,

Steve


PS: I just lost in my FFB playoffs. Screw you LJ!
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Dec 11, 2005 8:32 pm

I don't -- I figure the folks at Baseball Prospectus have a slightly more powerful database and program than I do, so I let PECOTA have all the fun for me.

[Edit: Probably the most effective way is to figure out a set of career paths and apply the models to individual players, projecting future performance based on similar player profiles from the past.

Or you could go with the classic 50% weight on last year, 33% on two years ago, 17% on the previous year, but that doesn't really account for declining performance.]

[Second edit: Peak year for batters is typically 26. Baseball Prospectus had a nice article on this a while ago. If you're a subscriber, you can find it here:

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.p ... cleid=4464

To summarize, the peak age is as follows for these positions:

C - 27
1B - 26
2B - 25-26
3B - 26-27
SS - 26
LF/RF - 26-27
CF - 25

And the aging models differ for positions. First base follows an average career path, corner outfielders drop off sooner, CF and middle infield peak sooner and higher but drop off more, catchers rise and fall very quickly with that peak the only time they touch average, third base stays better a bit longer then drops off at age 32 or so.]
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:21 pm

Beltre from last year was a surprise for most scouts, too. The thing is, we should have seen it coming. As hotly as I defended Beltre last offseason, it was mostly because I had him in '04 and my favorite team had just signed him.

It was a fluke year in '04. A huge fluke, but a fluke nonetheless.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:27 pm

quietstorm wrote:
Or you could go with the classic 50% weight on last year, 33% on two years ago, 17% on the previous year, but that doesn't really account for declining performance.]


It does if you add an age adjustment and regression to the mean.
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Dec 11, 2005 10:32 pm

Yes, but then you're not "just doing" that. You're doing that and adding more. ;)
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Postby wrveres » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:21 am

Good cafe reading on this subject is located Here and in the FAQ. ;-D
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:04 am

wrveres wrote:Good cafe reading on this subject is located Here and in the FAQ. ;-D


Excellent. I am pretty familar with replacement values and have been using them for the last 3 or so years, but am not up to speed on all the actual coding that goes on with doing projections. I think it's amazing that someone actually searches for trends of past players, which is very similar to BPs system. That is a program taht is beyond my comprehension. I also think it is interesting that the 50/33/17 works almost as well.

Great start for me now that the football season has ended. Thanks for the links.
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:06 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
quietstorm wrote:
Or you could go with the classic 50% weight on last year, 33% on two years ago, 17% on the previous year, but that doesn't really account for declining performance.]


It does if you add an age adjustment and regression to the mean.


I think that's where I am going to start...
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:02 am

I think comparative rankings can be much more powerful than projections.
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