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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:19 pm

It wasn't about the Jays, except for a note about the Ryan signing. I think it's subscriber-only, but here's the link anyway:

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.p ... cleid=4629

The gist of it, from the intro:

"Is it too late to stop the madness?

I count 197 major-league free agents, of which 173 appear to still be available. My recommendation is that none of them--none--should be signed.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not advocating collusion, or any organized effort to impede the market. I’m saying that there is very little chance that any free-agent signing this winter is going to return adequate performance for the dollars invested. In fact, I think this winter’s crop of contracts may make last winter’s fiasco look like a Warren Buffett seminar. Therefore, I would suggest that every team in baseball is individually better off not signing free agents, rather than involve themselves in overpaying and overcommitting to players who won’t be worth it. "
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:21 pm

quietstorm wrote:It wasn't about the Jays, except for a note about the Ryan signing. I think it's subscriber-only, but here's the link anyway:

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.p ... cleid=4629

The gist of it, from the intro:

"Is it too late to stop the madness?

I count 197 major-league free agents, of which 173 appear to still be available. My recommendation is that none of them--none--should be signed.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not advocating collusion, or any organized effort to impede the market. I’m saying that there is very little chance that any free-agent signing this winter is going to return adequate performance for the dollars invested. In fact, I think this winter’s crop of contracts may make last winter’s fiasco look like a Warren Buffett seminar. Therefore, I would suggest that every team in baseball is individually better off not signing free agents, rather than involve themselves in overpaying and overcommitting to players who won’t be worth it. "

I'm not exactly sure why you think I care about this piece of writing.
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Postby looptid » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:58 pm

quietstorm wrote:Yes, I'm quite aware of their history, which is why this is surprising to me. Too many of you (not that I haven't been guilty of this; I was with the Sexson and Beltre signings by the M's last year) are jumping on the bandwagon because you see big dollar figures. But this isn't the way to build a business -- you don't commit almost ten million a year to a closer, period. They're too volatile. You'd all have been saying that sort of money was too little for Gagne a year and a half ago, but look at what happened there. Watch when K-Rod goes down with an injury. Look at Troy Percival after age 30. Look at almost anybody outside of Mariano Rivera. You just don't give that sort of money to a pitcher, especially a hard-throwing reliever, unless they're young and durable. Ryan is not young. He'll be 30 later this month, and that signals a decline in performance for most pitchers.


What's Ryan's injury history? He's pitched 87 and 70.1 relief innings over the past two seasons, and 57.2 and 50.1 as a LOOGY the two seasons before that (more games than IP). Every single pitcher in baseball is an injury risk. But there is nothing about Ryan that suggests he is more of a risk than his peers.

Although, I do agree with you, in that paying large sums of money for a pitcher that only throws 70 innings a season won't provide a return on the investment.

Instead, why not, if the Jays are going to be buyers, go offer that same contract to Kevin Millwood? He'll have a much greater impact than Ryan (and actually I think Millwood is only asking $40/4 years).

Teams need to realize that you do not need an "experienced ninth inning guy" to serve as the bookend to the bullpen. You need a dominant reliever. Ryan is that, but as soon as someone starts collecting saves, their salaries skyrocket.

Take the Twins for example. In 2002 they promoted Guardado from within, having never closed before. Then, when Guardado became a "proven closer" and got too expensive simply because he began collecting a dubious statistic invented by a newspaper writer and popularized by agents, they went and grabbed Nathan from the Giants, even though he had never closed before. The results?

2002: Guardado, 45 Saves, $1,800,000
2003: Guardado, 41 Saves, $2,700,000
2004: Nathan, 44 Saves, $440,000
2005: Nathan, 43 Saves, $2,100,000

Average: 43.25 Saves, $1,760,000

Go out and blow your cash on someone that, barring injury, will throw 200 innings. Then sign or trade for a dominant reliever that hasn't been anointed a closer yet. Tell me:

Halladay
Millwood
Burnett

...wouldn't look great.
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Postby bigken117 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 10:04 pm

quietstorm wrote:The Indians are one of the best teams in the AL, they're going to make the playoffs this year (they were the true best team in their division in '05), and they don't spend that much.


I agree the Indians should make the playoffs this season, but the team that ended up winning that division won the World Series, so they probably weren't the best team in it.

Anyways, I think that $11 mil per for Burnett is pretty steep for a #2 starter (unless you're in Bos or NY).

What's Halladay making?
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 10:07 pm

bigken117 wrote:
quietstorm wrote:The Indians are one of the best teams in the AL, they're going to make the playoffs this year (they were the true best team in their division in '05), and they don't spend that much.


I agree the Indians should make the playoffs this season, but the team that ended up winning that division won the World Series, so they probably weren't the best team in it.

Anyways, I think that $11 mil per for Burnett is pretty steep for a #2 starter (unless you're in Bos or NY).

What's Halladay making?
I've already discussed the World Series issue in another thread -- suffice it to say, the playoffs are luck-based as much as skill-based.

As for the regular season, the White Sox got lucky -- look at the runs for/against. The Indians were better in that respect. The White Sox managed to do well partially because of their luck in one-run games.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 10:07 pm

bigken117 wrote:
quietstorm wrote:The Indians are one of the best teams in the AL, they're going to make the playoffs this year (they were the true best team in their division in '05), and they don't spend that much.


I agree the Indians should make the playoffs this season, but the team that ended up winning that division won the World Series, so they probably weren't the best team in it.

Anyways, I think that $11 mil per for Burnett is pretty steep for a #2 starter (unless you're in Bos or NY).

What's Halladay making?

bigken, it is in my opinion that Toronto has to spend like Boston and the Yankees in order to compete with them, and that is what they appear to finally be doing (although they are still far, far behind each of them).

Halladay makes something like 12.5 million, I believe next year.

It jumps up about 2 million from last year, I think.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 10:21 pm

It doesn't look like anything is happening tonight, but I could be wrong. Supposedly, Ricciardi is back in Boston.
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Postby bigken117 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 11:54 pm

mweir145 wrote:bigken, it is in my opinion that Toronto has to spend like Boston and the Yankees in order to compete with them, and that is what they appear to finally be doing (although they are still far, far behind each of them).

Halladay makes something like 12.5 million, I believe next year.

It jumps up about 2 million from last year, I think.


I would have agreed with that 2 or 3 years ago, but considering how the Yankees wild spending hasn't gotten them anything in 5 years, and the Sox had a disappointing season defending while (I believe) adding payroll, has every team, them included, rethinking how they throw money around. Watching teams like Minny, Oakland and Cleveland is going to be the model. Not that they won't outspend everyone, they will, but I don't think other teams will have to throw an exorbanant amount of money at a guy to keep the Sox and Yanks at bay.
Anyways, it sort of seems like desperation on the part of JP following a season which fell well below expectations. I think the Jays woul have been better served saving some of that cache cash for next winter as well, and throwing $2 mil more per at Zito.
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Postby mweir145 » Fri Dec 09, 2005 12:08 am

bigken117 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:bigken, it is in my opinion that Toronto has to spend like Boston and the Yankees in order to compete with them, and that is what they appear to finally be doing (although they are still far, far behind each of them).

Halladay makes something like 12.5 million, I believe next year.

It jumps up about 2 million from last year, I think.


I would have agreed with that 2 or 3 years ago, but considering how the Yankees wild spending hasn't gotten them anything in 5 years, and the Sox had a disappointing season defending while (I believe) adding payroll, has every team, them included, rethinking how they throw money around. Watching teams like Minny, Oakland and Cleveland is going to be the model. Not that they won't outspend everyone, they will, but I don't think other teams will have to throw an exorbanant amount of money at a guy to keep the Sox and Yanks at bay.
Anyways, it sort of seems like desperation on the part of JP following a season which fell well below expectations. I think the Jays woul have been better served saving some of that cache cash for next winter as well, and throwing $2 mil more per at Zito.

You would agree that the Jays have gotten better by virtue of these FA signings right? If the Jays just sat back and did nothing this off-season, there is virtually no chance that they would catch up to the Yankees and Red Sox this year. That is the ultimate goal (contending in the AL East), and it starts this year with these signings.

I'm also not exactly sure what you mean when you say the Jays fell far short of expectations last year. They finished 13 games better than they did the year before, and were in the Wild-Card race for over half the season, and even into the end of August without their ace, and the arguably the best pitcher in the AL, Roy Halladay. This wasn't anything close to a desperation move by J.P. They had targeted Burnett since the beginning of last season, and there were rumours that he almost decided to trade for him at the trade deadline last season. I'm also not sure why this is seen as an obscene amount of money. Has anybody seen what the other pitchers are signing for lately? What the Jays signed Burnett at was clearly market value, and is in my opinion, a great deal for them.

As for Zito, well I'm really not sure why everybody thinks he's so good, he shouldn't be worth anymore than A.J is, he's had two straight subpar seasons in a row. If the Jays waited for Zito, they would also be virtually giving up this season (not quite, but their chances of contending would decrease), and this is supposedly one of their "contention" years.

The Jays really had no other choice but to spend this available money if they wanted to contend. Though they still are not anywhere close to what the Red Sox and Yankees are in payroll, they are as close as they've been in a long time.
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Postby giants8307 » Fri Dec 09, 2005 12:09 am

mweir145 wrote:
quietstorm wrote:Doesn't surprise me. Yet another dumb deal for the Jays. They overpaid Ryan, they overpaid Burnett, and Nomar will be overpaid by whomever he signs with.

I'm really not understanding this, why were those "dumb" deals? Atleast give some kind of reason as to why that is..


First of all, they improved themselves greatly in both the rotation and the bullpen. They also got the #1 FA starter, and the #2 FA closer. In addition, they got them for market value (you do understand what that is right?). I'm not exactly sure what the problem is...

It's not like the Jays really had a choice either. They either stay with the 50 million dollar payroll, and lose consistantly like they have the past 12 years, or they go for it, and sign the best players available. What's the better option? What makes them the better team? It should be fairly obvious to anybody.

As for Nomar, well if this is true (and it doesn't appear to be anywhere close to done yet), he will greatly help this team if he stays healthy. I mean this is a player who was MVP-caliber only a few years ago. I'd certainly take the low risk-high reward deal (which looks to be about a 2 year deal for 8-12 million). If he comes to Toronto, he will greatly help this team win, and also put more fans in the seats.


My thoughts exactly. They want to be good THIS year. Waiting for good deals on free agents next year or the year after won't help them. I admire them for trying field a competitive team in the al east.
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