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Nomah to Toronto?

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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:12 pm

mweir145 wrote:Do you know anything about the Toronto Blue Jays organization other than the fact that they have signed two of the top FA's this year? Do you just naturally assume the Jays have an extremely high payroll because of these moves? They've been cheap for 5 years, it's about time they got back into the chase for the AL East. The Jays certainly have the money to spend, they aren't some small market team, it's just a matter of whether Ted Rogers wants to spend it or not.
Yes, I'm quite aware of their history, which is why this is surprising to me. Too many of you (not that I haven't been guilty of this; I was with the Sexson and Beltre signings by the M's last year) are jumping on the bandwagon because you see big dollar figures. But this isn't the way to build a business -- you don't commit almost ten million a year to a closer, period. They're too volatile. You'd all have been saying that sort of money was too little for Gagne a year and a half ago, but look at what happened there. Watch when K-Rod goes down with an injury. Look at Troy Percival after age 30. Look at almost anybody outside of Mariano Rivera. You just don't give that sort of money to a pitcher, especially a hard-throwing reliever, unless they're young and durable. Ryan is not young. He'll be 30 later this month, and that signals a decline in performance for most pitchers.

Let's look at it this way: If he maintains his current level of production, he's winning above five games a year for his team. We're talking about 9.4 mil/year in salary. That's 1.88 million per win. In the AL, it takes about 94 wins to reach the playoffs. So, in order to reach the playoffs spending at this rate, the Jays would have to spend 176 million dollars. Explain to me how that's good business, again?

I can understand this kind of spending to try to overcome that last little hump. The Phillies could spend this sort of money and feasibly launch an assault against the Braves. Once they reach the playoffs, revenues increase and it's easier to recoup that money.

But this just doesn't make sense. You don't sign a 30-year-old with two-and-a-half good years behind him for this money.

And Burnett?

His BEST year was 5.5 WARP. Let's assume, for the sake of this argument, that he manages that over the length of his contract. That's two million dollars per win (11m/year), meaning they'd have to spend almost 200 million just to make the playoffs.

Look, I know the Yankees do it. But it hasn't gotten them anywhere recently, has it? The Indians are one of the best teams in the AL, they're going to make the playoffs this year (they were the true best team in their division in '05), and they don't spend that much. The A's don't spend that much. Just because some teams spend it doesn't make it acceptable. (Oh, and Burnett is a 28-year-old injury-prone pitcher who will be 29 by the beginning of next year. If he hasn't established himself yet, he never will. He seems younger because of his injury history. His potential is not a valid reason to sign him to such a contract at this point.)


And your "they've been cheap" argument? What, their past intelligence excuses their current stupidity?
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:30 pm

What should the Blue Jays have done with that money? Sit on it for another season? We alll know what would happen if they did that...

As for signing players with 50 million dollar price tags, what other choice to compete did they have? Of course, it isn't exactly good business to put that much money in one or two investments, especially when those investments appear to be considerably risky (that should be pretty clear to anybody). But they were the best options on the market, and were the players that could improve the team the most in the next few years if they pitch like they can. To win in this league, you have to spend money. It's fairly simple.
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:41 pm

You have to spend money to win in every league, but I just don't see these as smart signings. There's a difference between spending smart and just getting better. And I see that difference here.

It's possible that this is just the going rate for pitchers, now. But until that's been proven by demonstration, I just won't accept it.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:51 pm

quietstorm wrote:You have to spend money to win in every league, but I just don't see these as smart signings. There's a difference between spending smart and just getting better. And I see that difference here.

It's possible that this is just the going rate for pitchers, now. But until that's been proven by demonstration, I just won't accept it.

Look around, did you not see Rogers get signed for 16 million over 2 years today?
Did you not see Byrd and Loaiza get signed for 7 million a year?
Millwood was rumoured to be offered about the same as Burnett, as well..

All the Jays did was get the two players they wanted since basically the beginning of last season for market value, I see nothing wrong with that. They improved the team with those two additions, and still have money left to spend on a hitter. Good on them.
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:55 pm

It's the going rate THIS YEAR. Until I see it happening again, I mean.

(And I could make the argument that this year's prices will adversely affect next year's, effectively inflating them beyond what they would have been. But that doesn't really help me.)
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:57 pm

quietstorm wrote:It's the going rate THIS YEAR. Until I see it happening again, I mean.

(And I could make the argument that this year's prices will adversely affect next year's, effectively inflating them beyond what they would have been. But that doesn't really help me.)

If you look at the star pitchers available next year, there is yet again, a very short supply of them, with an almost inelastic demand (just as there is every year). Prices will be high again, I'm sure.
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:02 pm

You're probably right, though that brings up an entirely new issue... why not stick to batters, which is what Toronto really needs?
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:05 pm

quietstorm wrote:You're probably right, though that brings up an entirely new issue... why not stick to batters, which is what Toronto really needs?

They also needed a #2 starter, and a closer.

As for hitters, well I believe they tried to get Giles (finished #2 for him), arguably the best hitter on the market, what else did you want them to do?
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Postby quietstorm » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:11 pm

Not spend money this offseason. LOL, I know that sounds odd. But, if you can, read the article at Baseball Prospectus about it. I think it was Joe Sheehan who actually suggested that GMs sign nobody this year. It echoes my sentiments exactly.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 9:16 pm

quietstorm wrote:Not spend money this offseason. LOL, I know that sounds odd. But, if you can, read the article at Baseball Prospectus about it. I think it was Joe Sheehan who actually suggested that GMs sign nobody this year. It echoes my sentiments exactly.

Sheehan changes his opinion on Ricciardi and the Jays weekly.

Last year, the Jays were amazing in the dollars-spent-per-win category. I gurantee Sheehan was happy about that. This year, the Jays are going for something probably less important to Sheehan, but more important to their fans: wins.
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