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'06 Alfonso Soriano Projection

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Postby Niffoc4 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 11:15 am

Yoda wrote:Hmmm... looks like Soriano might be a bargain next year.
Depends on what kind of league you are in. A deep league with managers who pay attention, and it is possible that they all will overestimate the effect of the switch. Playing with people who only look at last year's stats, and he will be way overrated.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 3:36 pm

Niffoc4 wrote:
Yoda wrote:Hmmm... looks like Soriano might be a bargain next year.
Depends on what kind of league you are in. A deep league with managers who pay attention, and it is possible that they all will overestimate the effect of the switch. Playing with people who only look at last year's stats, and he will be way overrated.


Agreed.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Dec 08, 2005 4:01 pm

People really don't understand park factors, do they?

Here's ZiPS projections for Soriano

2006 ZiPS Projections
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Soriano 640 85 159 35 3 27 79 35 130 24 .248 .295 .439

Unless the Nats make radical changes in the field, there's no way he hits above .260. His runs and RBIs will both take significant dips, with the size of each depending on the batting order. He's not a first rounder anymore. Maybe he's worth a pick before round 5.
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