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Free Agency gone mad

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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Dec 07, 2005 4:28 am

http://www.kffl.com/article.php/18051

Mweir, glad you are happy. Maybe it will pay off. Past history isn't in long contracts favor. Look how Chicago won last year. Nothing but cheap 1-3 year signings.
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Postby stevelabny » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:19 am

So will this make everyone remember that while the Yankees of the past 10 years have paid market price to stars, and paid extra for their own world series winning players, they are not the insane ones who continue to jump the market every few years.

The Blue Jays sign BJ Ryan to some insane deal and once the dominoes are in motion, you can't stop them.

ditto Furcal.

just like Arod's ridiculous contract last time around.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:43 am

stevelabny wrote:So will this make everyone remember that while the Yankees of the past 10 years have paid market price to stars, and paid extra for their own world series winning players, they are not the insane ones who continue to jump the market every few years.
Giambi and Mussina weren't signed for market prices.
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Postby Pochucker » Wed Dec 07, 2005 2:06 pm

Simple Economics -- I can live with that as long as I dont hear the owners crying "were losing money" Simple economics is - you dont spend more on your product than you take in. Furcal for 13 mill ranks right up there with the worst signings of all time, of course JD Drew isnt far behind!
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Re: Free Agency gone mad

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Dec 07, 2005 3:00 pm

HOOTIE wrote:Is it me, or is this the worst signings you have ever seen? Sure there is no 100 mil deal, but tons of guys are getting too many years, at too much per year. Yea i know if the market bears it, then some will say it's worth it. But i don't think i see one deal that will work out over the duration. No closer is worth 9 mil a year. None. A .500 pitcher who rarely throws 200 innings gets 5 years 55 mil? This is pure insanity. In 2 years most these teams will be trying to get out of the deals via trade. The fans might be excited, but they likely won't in a year or two. The teams not signing are better off. Look at past history.

KBrown
DNeage
MHampton
Beltran
Beltre
Pavano
Wright
Park
Dreifort
Thome

And i could find plenty more.


Hootie, of all people you are using w/l record to evaluate a pitcher. Next you will be saying that Clemens was just a 13 win pitcher last year.

Burnett is a risk but what pitcher is not a risk? He's relatively young being only 28 without a lot of mileage on his arm. I would rather have a 28 yr old with only 850 IP b/c of elbow surgery than a 29 year old Vazquez with almost 1,700 IP.

Shouldn't skill and potential to perform be the determining factor rather than paying for past performance? Why is it that a 3 year $48 million deal for 42 yr old Randy Johnson who had well over 3,000 IP on him is ok but a lesser deal for a pitcher who by all accounts is a premier talent is bad?

You can knock the deals all that you want but the facts are that the Jays have to compete with the Yankees ($208 million budget in 2005) and the Red Sox. After these signings the Jays salaries are at around $75 million for 2006 which is BELOW the MLB average and they end up with one of the top pitching staffs on paper in baseball. The Jays were at $76 million in 2001 and 2002 and finished below .500 both years - so I would say that they are doing ok and are being fiscally responsible. How many teams have decreased their payroo over the past 5 years but have gotten better?

As for your list of FA players who didn't work out IMO it is pretty one-sided. What about all of the signings that did work out? Just off the top of my head most of these guys earned their big contracts and I think that all of them helped their new teams to WS titles: Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Greg Maddux, John Wettland, Sheffield.

I agree that the economics of baseball are out of whack, that's no big secret but I think that you are misguided by pointing out the BJs. JP did OK with AJ and BJ lol.
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:11 pm

Mookie, i knew you would reply. ;-)

I mentioned Burnetts record because career wise, it has relevance. Burnett is a .495 career pitcher. Florida was .473 while he was there. So he was .22 over his team. Not bad, but is that worth 5 years/55 mil? Imo, no pitcher should get 5 years. It's not like AJ is a workhorse. Only 2 years of of hitting 175 innings. Career era+ of 110. Career splits of

Home 3.20 era
Road 4.26 era

Home 1.18 whip
Road 1.38 whip

Doesn't the career road era make you wonder?

As far as Ryan/Wagner, no closer is worth 9 mil a year, much less 5 years. I'm not cracking on these guys, as they are good . I'm debating the years, $ end of it.

Sure some FA signings work out. The law of averages. You mention Wetteland. He was traded to the NYY in 95, got his ring in 96, then became a FA. Sheffield was traded to Marlins in 93, and he won there in 97.

Maddux was a established HOF stud. Sheffield is a position player with near HOF numbers. Molitor is in HOF, Winfield close. These were all established stars when signed . And except for Maddux, were position players, which are less risky. AJ and Ryan don't have near the track record of those success stories. Looking at years, Molitor signed for 3 years. Winfield 2 years. How many 5 year deals work out? Jeter and Arod sure, but they are HOF talent, and neither has a ring after signing.

I'm glad your excited. Maybe it will work out. But if i was JP, i would be sweating every minute.
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Postby curious_george_43545 » Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:22 pm

We need to all chip in and buy Hootie a MLB franchise, and see how he does :-b
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:56 pm

HOOTIE wrote:Mookie, i knew you would reply. ;-)

I mentioned Burnetts record because career wise, it has relevance. Burnett is a .495 career pitcher. Florida was .473 while he was there. So he was .22 over his team. Not bad, but is that worth 5 years/55 mil? Imo, no pitcher should get 5 years. It's not like AJ is a workhorse. Only 2 years of of hitting 175 innings. Career era+ of 110. Career splits of

Home 3.20 era
Road 4.26 era

Home 1.18 whip
Road 1.38 whip

Doesn't the career road era make you wonder?

As far as Ryan/Wagner, no closer is worth 9 mil a year, much less 5 years. I'm not cracking on these guys, as they are good . I'm debating the years, $ end of it.

Sure some FA signings work out. The law of averages. You mention Wetteland. He was traded to the NYY in 95, got his ring in 96, then became a FA. Sheffield was traded to Marlins in 93, and he won there in 97.

Maddux was a established HOF stud. Sheffield is a position player with near HOF numbers. Molitor is in HOF, Winfield close. These were all established stars when signed . And except for Maddux, were position players, which are less risky. AJ and Ryan don't have near the track record of those success stories. Looking at years, Molitor signed for 3 years. Winfield 2 years. How many 5 year deals work out? Jeter and Arod sure, but they are HOF talent, and neither has a ring after signing.

I'm glad your excited. Maybe it will work out. But if i was JP, i would be sweating every minute.


Get your facts straight Hoot.

Greg Maddux Dec 9, 1992 - at the time a 26 yr old pitcher signed a 5 year $28 M deal with the Braves - sound familiar?

Paul Molitor Jan 1988 signed as a 4 yr free agent deal, signed a 3 yr deal in 1992, signed a 2 yr deal in 1995

Winfield became a star in NY, he got there by signing a 10 yr $15M deal on Dec 15 1980

All of these guys became stars after signing long term free agent deals - Mad Dog was in a very similar situation to AJ when he signed his 5 yr deal with the Braves and that worked out ok.

The point about Wettland is that in 1996 he signed a 4 yr $23 M contract and during the course of that 4 yr contract he recorded 150 saves (2 years ranking second in saves in baseball, one yr ranking 4th and one yr 5th in total saves) - so some closers are worth signing to 4 yr deals. Mo would be worth it, Hoffman and there are others. You can't just point to the bad ones and only give half the story.

Also just pointing to past performance is a flawed way of judging talent. Looking at it that way the Jays were right to trade away Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza in 2000 and to Jeff Kent for David Cone in 1992.

You've got to have vision Hoot - buy low sell high, don't jump on the bandwagon man. Don't believe the hype etc....
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Dec 08, 2005 12:24 am

Mookie, Maddux was pretty well proven in Chicago. Had 5 straight years of at least 237 innings, with a CY Young, and a 20 win season on a 78-84 team. The Braves hardly were taking a big risk. Burnett no way compares to Maddux at the same point in career.

Winfield was a stud in SD for some years. His best runs created, rc/27, ops+ season, came in SD.

I didn't list every guys career FA track record. I listed their FA record at the time you said they helped their team to a WS title.

You say buy low, sell high? So the Jays bought low?


Young was traded at 23, Kent 24. Neither guy was given a chance by Jays. You can't give up on such young talent.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:25 am

Hootie there are 2 issues here:
-are the Jays insane to give these guys relatively long term deals (4-5 yrs)? and
- did the Jays ruin the market by giving them too much money?

You seem to be saying both.

My examples were to show that not every player signed to a long term deal is a disaster. A lot of them turn out to be good deals - even pitchers can earn a 5 yr deal (Maddux) and even closers can earn it (Wettland).

No of course these guys are not in the same league as Maddux and Wettland - but they are not getting paid the same as stars like that. All stars like that get paid much more (Mussina $19 M, Pedro $17.5). $11 M for Burnett and $9 M for Ryan are current market value prices. Jaret Wright 3 yrs $21 M, Milton 3 yrs $26M, Russ Ortiz 4 yrs $33M and those are just from last year. The two Jays signings are in keeping with the current economics of the game. I'm not saying that I agree with this but you cannot say that these are the worst signings ever like you did in your first post.
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