Now that the Burnett deal is done, Scott Boras can get to work with his stable of arms. Seems that the Mariners got the ball rolling yesterday for Kevin Millwood at four years, $44MM. If that's the starting point, I'm frightened by where the bidding will end.
I would've expected this thing to drag on for at least a week, but MetsBlog is reporting that Millwood is close to signing with the Mariners. Matthew Cerrone also mentions that "most believe Seattle's offer is for four years." I'm thinking it might take $48MM to make up for the lack of a fifth year.
There's plenty of debate about which pitcher was the best on the market, Burnett or Millwood. Many side with Burnett based on potential, while others cite Millwood's longer track record of success.
But really, does Millwood's track record indicate he has four solid complete seasons on the way? Tough question. Based on his last three seasons, he may be good for 180 innings in each of the next four seasons. On the other hand, Millwood decided against elbow surgery at the end of a shaky season with the Phillies in 2004. That problem could arise again; given that Millwood is on the wrong side of 30, he may be just as much of a health risk as Burnett.
Millwood's HR rate is trending in the wrong direction, and he allows enough baserunners to push that 2.86 ERA up near 4. I guess we'll have to look back on this in 2009 or 2010, but I think Burnett is a better bet, especially since the money may be comparable.
I like Millwood. I'm not that worried about his HR rate trending up or anything along those lines if he's making the move to Safeco. I might have preferred Burnett for the same money, but AJ may be one of those talents who just never figures it all out. Felix/Millwood/Moyer (but only pitching at home!) wouldn't be a bad top 3 in the rotation. Now if we can just figure out a way to get Manny! And no Carl Everett (although on the plus side there we can always trade him to the White Sox in July and score a prospect or two...).
I wouldn't touch Moyer, how old is he now? Get some balls and go get some talent M's. Plenty still out there, FA Armas, Dessens, J.Johnson, Mays (yes, even him he was good before he got hurt), and Washburn would all be upgrades. Plus, plenty of trades to make. Moyer knows how to pitch but if the M's wanna go somewhere they'd make some moves.
I don't see how the Mariners expect this to help their team. This and the Beltre deal, yea, that'll catapult them into the playoffs. Millwood seemed to have more Groundballs last year which helped him keep that ERA lower. However, his WHIP didn't change dramatically. Not going to expect a sub 3.0 ERA for Mr. Millwood next year, even at SAFECO.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
I'm sorry to hear that anyone is willing to give Millwood a contract for that long and that much money. This crop of FA pitchers is really just weak and Millwood and Burnett have been able to make a killing because of it. I would expect Millwoods ERA to be closer to 4 than it is to 3 next year.
RAmst23 wrote:I don't see how the Mariners expect this to help their team. This and the Beltre deal, yea, that'll catapult them into the playoffs. Millwood seemed to have more Groundballs last year which helped him keep that ERA lower. However, his WHIP didn't change dramatically. Not going to expect a sub 3.0 ERA for Mr. Millwood next year, even at SAFECO.
i agree. i don't see how his ERA can be below 3 next season again, no matter where he ends up. last time his ERA was below 3 was in his amazing 99 season, we are 7 years away from it. interestingly enough he posted his best month ERA in the month of september, 1.62, but he posted his worst month WHIP 1.41. one thing is true though, he's been around forever, but he's only 30 years old.
but to defend millwood a bit. he had a pretty bad run support last year. had he got the type of run support cliff lee got, perhaps colon would not have been named cy young.