How much will Jacques numbers fluctuate depending on what team he ends up on? Will they go substantially up if he ends up in St. Louis?
Reason I'm asking is I'm from MN and he's my favorite so I hope he doesn't go but if he does I hope it's to St. Louis for his sake. I also am prusuing him in a dynasty league with the thought of what he could do in St. Louis (I got Eckstein last offseason with a nice payoff
He'll make around 1-2 mill more with Stl than any other teams courting him and have the possibility to win. He'll bat at lower in the order so his number may suffer. I'd say if he hits more than 20HR it'll be gravy. Now, he just needs to work on his avg. maybe in Stl he can do that.
If he goes to the Cards, be prepared for him to be a platoon player with maybe So taguchi. LaRussa likes to platoon, espaecially someone like Jones who does not do well vs lefties, and he loves Taguchi. Combine this with the fact as someone has said, he;ll bat lower in the lineup, his overall fanatasy numbers will be down.
i'd look for him to put up a reggie sanders type season if he was in stl. he'd probably bat 6th, hit low to mid 20's in homers, 70-80 something ribbies, 10-15 steals. not bad if he can get his ba back up to the .280 range.
the platoon situation depends on who the other outfielder is. right now the only regular is edmonds. if the cards just added jones, he'd get plenty of at bats with so and john rodriguez manning the other corner. if the cards added another starting outfielder, perhaps there would be more shared duties, but i reckon jones would still get a fair number of at bats.
edit: its kind of hard to project his power numbers if he went to the cards because they will be in a new stadium. i hear they want it to play pretty neutral, but you never know until they actually start playing games.
I would assume that just hitting in a lineup like the Cardinals would give Jones a lot of RBI opportunities... also, since Jacque would only sit against lefties, it would just give him a game or two off per week.
The Twins, as a team, throughout Jones' tenure, have had a lot of trouble getting runners on base. Even in a platoon, only playing against right handed pitching, his RBI opportunities would increase.
Jones is a difficult player to forecast, though. His last two seasons have been below his career average. He did really struggle with the death of his father in 2004, but didn't rebound as much as I would have liked to have seen last year.
What you have above is the standard, pre-steriod era development curve, with players peaking around 27-28 (in Jones' case 27). He won't resign with the Twins, because now at the end of his arbitration years, and the begining of his free agent years, teams can't count on Jones as anything more than an average outfielder, but will pay him the highest salaries of his career. Teams like St. Louis are better able to pay $6 million a season for an average player than the Twins are.