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Postby J35J » Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:45 am

Vlad is a good example.

He had 5 seasons where he had complete years in Montreal, his HIGHEST Runs total was 108 in any of those 5 years. His FIRST full season with Anaheim he gets 124 runs.....hhhmmmm

2 of those 5 years he had less than 110 rbi and another one of the seasons he had "only" 111 rbi. Then in his first season with anaheim again he has 126 rbi. :-?

This is also when Vlad steals 30-40 bases a year and MCab would be lucky to get 5. Speed helps with run totals.

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Postby Yoda » Wed Dec 07, 2005 11:56 am

J35J wrote:Vlad is a good example.

He had 5 seasons where he had complete years in Montreal, his HIGHEST Runs total was 108 in any of those 5 years. His FIRST full season with Anaheim he gets 124 runs.....hhhmmmm

2 of those 5 years he had less than 110 rbi and another one of the seasons he had "only" 111 rbi. Then in his first season with anaheim again he has 126 rbi. :-?

This is also when Vlad steals 30-40 bases a year and MCab would be lucky to get 5. Speed helps with run totals.

Jason


Yep and he never had less than 100 R, RBI in MTL except when he was injured. Plus last season with LAA, he failed to score 100 R... And he 'only' had 108 RBI.

FWIW, he had 30-40 steals for only two season in his career. You can reasonably expact about a dozen steals in his career.

Finally, Miggy is not a speed demon but he's no sloth either. If given the chance, he can steal a base or two. He hasn't run in his career but how do you know if he will be given the green light more often with less support? See Pujols...
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Postby BravesGuy » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:07 pm

sooner711 wrote:
The Cow wrote: Because a #3 pick with 100 RBIs is worth less than a #3 pick with 100 RBIs. Do the math lol.


Huh? :-?

yeah... :-?
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Postby BritSox » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:29 pm

Yoda wrote:
BritSox wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Where did I say players stats would be exactly the same with the same lineup, ballpark?

Truly great players overcome lack of support and hitting in a pitcher's park, etc. The difference here is that I believe Miguel is truly special while you don't. He will hit .300, 40+ regardless of support.

And for those of you who think he will get less than 80 R, RBI. You need to get your head checked. How many players in MLB history hit .300, 30 HR and less than 80 R, RBI?


No, that's not the difference at all. Find where anyone said he wouldn't hit a lot of homers and for a good average?

Brandnew and I were arguing that his projected run and RBI numbers might go down by about 10-15 apiece, due to having no-one before or after him, and this has an affect on his fantasy value, moving him down maybe 3-4 slots in our draft list. You denied this would be the case, which implies that you think that lineup protection doesn't matter at all. Your pujols/colorado/seattle example implied that you didn't think that park factors mattered either.

I mean, c'mon, if he got traded to the Yankees, his value would go up, right?


You are still missing the point. People are not talking about downgrading him 3-4 slots. People are expecting him to get 80, R, RBI. That's a HGUE downgrade for someone who will almost definitely hit .300, 30+ HR.

As for lineup support... Take Vlad for example. His best years were in MTL with minimal support. I can't even recall anyone remotely good except for Vidro who was hurt 30% of the time. So you have no idea which players will step up when given the chance. My point is that you shouldn't downgrade players of Cabrera's caliber unless he shows you he can't produce. He has not done this yet.


Wrong again. Those you're actually arguing against are not expecting him to lose forty runs off his production because of the lineup. One guy said he'd get 80, and no-one else thinks he's even in the right ballpark. My position, and those of brandnew and the other guys you're actually opposed to, is that he'll lose 10-15 off both, hitting maybe 105/100 rather than 120/115, and that that is enough to drop him a few slots, but still gives him very impressive numbers. Stop beating up on straw men and explain why this isn't the case.
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Postby Dark Knight » Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:45 pm

I feel bad for M-Cab, now Pierre is even gone. So now M-Cab has to try and bat with guys like H.Ramirez, Stokes, Aquila, Hermida, and Dillon? Yeah, he is going to be an RBI and run scoring machine :-t .
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Postby SCARPARIELLI » Wed Dec 07, 2005 1:05 pm

dude, just stop before Yoda has a stroke.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Dec 07, 2005 1:07 pm

BritSox wrote:
Yoda wrote:
BritSox wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Where did I say players stats would be exactly the same with the same lineup, ballpark?

Truly great players overcome lack of support and hitting in a pitcher's park, etc. The difference here is that I believe Miguel is truly special while you don't. He will hit .300, 40+ regardless of support.

And for those of you who think he will get less than 80 R, RBI. You need to get your head checked. How many players in MLB history hit .300, 30 HR and less than 80 R, RBI?


No, that's not the difference at all. Find where anyone said he wouldn't hit a lot of homers and for a good average?

Brandnew and I were arguing that his projected run and RBI numbers might go down by about 10-15 apiece, due to having no-one before or after him, and this has an affect on his fantasy value, moving him down maybe 3-4 slots in our draft list. You denied this would be the case, which implies that you think that lineup protection doesn't matter at all. Your pujols/colorado/seattle example implied that you didn't think that park factors mattered either.

I mean, c'mon, if he got traded to the Yankees, his value would go up, right?


You are still missing the point. People are not talking about downgrading him 3-4 slots. People are expecting him to get 80, R, RBI. That's a HGUE downgrade for someone who will almost definitely hit .300, 30+ HR.

As for lineup support... Take Vlad for example. His best years were in MTL with minimal support. I can't even recall anyone remotely good except for Vidro who was hurt 30% of the time. So you have no idea which players will step up when given the chance. My point is that you shouldn't downgrade players of Cabrera's caliber unless he shows you he can't produce. He has not done this yet.


Wrong again. Those you're actually arguing against are not expecting him to lose forty runs off his production because of the lineup. One guy said he'd get 80, and no-one else thinks he's even in the right ballpark. My position, and those of brandnew and the other guys you're actually opposed to, is that he'll lose 10-15 off both, hitting maybe 105/100 rather than 120/115, and that that is enough to drop him a few slots, but still gives him very impressive numbers. Stop beating up on straw men and explain why this isn't the case.


You are assuming that he won't improve on his avg and power numbers. He will almost definitely get less R, RBI with less support. That isn't the main point here. Given his career progression, it is reasonable to expect a step up in power and average. You are also assuming that none of the youngsters will step up and produce. I will guarantee that Hermida will end up with a higher OBP than Castill or Pierre.

So let's say he gets .333 and 40 HR this season with 100 R, RBI. Is that enough to bump him down the list? Is that not top 5 material for a 23 year old qualifying at 3B and OF?

The 10-15 drop in RBI and R is more than made up for the fact that he now qualifies at two positions. That's the way I see it.
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Postby Dark Knight » Wed Dec 07, 2005 1:49 pm

So let's say he gets .333 and 40 HR this season with 100 R, RBI. Is that enough to bump him down the list? Is that not top 5 material for a 23 year old qualifying at 3B and OF?

The 10-15 drop in RBI and R is more than made up for the fact that he now qualifies at two positions. That's the way I see it.


Wow 8-o . So now M-Cab is jumping from 2 years strait of 33 HR's to 40? :-t Come on now, we all know M-Cab is a stud, but how can you possibly think with all of the good hitting guys the M's have traded, that M-Cab will have just as good or better numbers than he has had in the past?
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Postby Yoda » Wed Dec 07, 2005 2:03 pm

Dark Knight wrote:
So let's say he gets .333 and 40 HR this season with 100 R, RBI. Is that enough to bump him down the list? Is that not top 5 material for a 23 year old qualifying at 3B and OF?

The 10-15 drop in RBI and R is more than made up for the fact that he now qualifies at two positions. That's the way I see it.


Wow 8-o . So now M-Cab is jumping from 2 years strait of 33 HR's to 40? :-t Come on now, we all know M-Cab is a stud, but how can you possibly think with all of the good hitting guys the M's have traded, that M-Cab will have just as good or better numbers than he has had in the past?


Well it's obviously impossible to debate with someone who claims Miggy won't get 80 R, RBI with 30 HR, .300...

When I read stats, I don't just look at the 5 categories in fantasy baseball. There are other meaningful stats such as OBP, SLG to name a few... Miggy improved 20 points in OBP and 50 points in SLG. While he didn't hit more HRs, he certainly hit for much more power. Next step? You guessed it. 40 dingers.
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Postby J35J » Wed Dec 07, 2005 3:06 pm

His slugging will have to go up a whole lot because he won't get the same number of ABs this year as he will be walked more often I would guess.

How many .320 35 105 100 3 guys are in the top 10?

Here are some pretty rough projections, in no particular order, for some guys. So "if" Cabrera put up the #'s posted above, where would he fall? I can't see him being top 5 or 6 like he was before the fire/sale.

Redraft league only.

Pujols .330 42 125 125 10
Arod .300 45 125 125 15
Vlad .320 35 115 115 15
Manny .310 45 130 105 1
Ortiz .300 45 130 110 1
Teix .300 45 130 110 3
Santana -
Soriano .275 35 100 100 30
Tejada .305 28 115 100 5
Abreu .300 25 100 105 25
Bay .300 33 105 110 15
Sheffield .295 35 125 105 8
Crawford .300 18 80 105 45
Ichiro .315 15 70 115 30
Wright .310 30 110 105 17
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