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Under the radar guy, Chad Tracy?

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Postby stevethumb » Sat Dec 03, 2005 11:43 am

very nice..thanks
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Postby swingaway » Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:37 pm

My player comparsion hes a Shea Hillenbrand clone with a little more pop(15-25 hrs). I'll probably pick him between the shawn green , ryan klesko tier type of first basman this season.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:44 pm

swingaway wrote:My player comparsion hes a Shea Hillenbrand clone with a little more pop(15-25 hrs). I'll probably pick him between the shawn green , ryan klesko tier type of first basman this season.


That's a reasonable comparison, keeping in mind that the "little more pop" is important. Barring injury, Hillenbrand is the bottom end of Tracy's future, probably. Guys like Edmonds and Magglio would be the top end.
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Postby sockeye » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:25 pm

GTWMA, I hope you are right!

I just drafted him at the end of round 11 in a 12-team league. Expected eligibility at 3B was a major factor.

I dunno about Maggs or Edmonds - I just hope he can be the new Aubrey Huff (circa 2003 or 2004).
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 17, 2006 7:24 pm

I like Tracy and think that's a good pick. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a dip from him this year, but still a valuable contributor, especially given that position flexibility. Another thing to consider is to structure your roster to allow you to platoon him a bit. If he's going to struggle, it'll be against lefties, but look at those splits against RH pitchers. I would not be at all surprised to see him post very strong numbers against righties, and if all you have to do is find a guy who can give you a chance to sit him against a few lefties, that's a small price to pay to get a high .800/low .900 OPS guy in round 11 of a draft.
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Postby glcmustliveon » Fri Feb 17, 2006 7:57 pm

I was reading an article In BP which said peopel over-exaggerate the whole doubles turn into triples thing... Anyway, Tracy will be solid, around .300 around 18 hrs, so i think as long as you dont expect 25+ homers then you should be fine...
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Postby glcmustliveon » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:04 pm

BTW I just checked Tracys PECOTA card and his improvement rate is at 50%, which means hes projected to do pretty much the same as he has the last three years...
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Postby brandnew » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:10 pm

I think Edmonds is stretching it considering he's a career .291/.384/.543/.927 hitter. Those are some pretty damn lofty expectations for a guy who never slugged .500 in the minors, despite being older than his peers, AND hitting for a very high average. His OBP skills also weren't very good. I think Edmonds is a horrible comparison. Magglio is a much more fitting one; putting those two players together makes no sense, as they're not alike in any way.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:16 pm

brandnew wrote:I think Edmonds is stretching it considering he's a career .291/.384/.543/.927 hitter. Those are some pretty damn lofty expectations for a guy who never slugged .500 in the minors, despite being older than his peers, AND hitting for a very high average. His OBP skills also weren't very good. I think Edmonds is a horrible comparison. Magglio is a much more fitting one; putting those two players together makes no sense, as they're not alike in any way.


I didn't pick that comparison out of thin air

http://baseballreference.com/friv/scomp ... =25&age=25

Edmonds highest HR total in the minors? 144 in AA/AAA. never had a slugging percentage over .492.

Tracy never had an OBP under .350 in the minors.
.393 OBP in A
.396 OBP in AA
.370 in AAA.

Not sure what player you are looking at , but it ain't Chad Tracy.
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Postby brandnew » Fri Feb 17, 2006 8:43 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
brandnew wrote:I think Edmonds is stretching it considering he's a career .291/.384/.543/.927 hitter. Those are some pretty damn lofty expectations for a guy who never slugged .500 in the minors, despite being older than his peers, AND hitting for a very high average. His OBP skills also weren't very good. I think Edmonds is a horrible comparison. Magglio is a much more fitting one; putting those two players together makes no sense, as they're not alike in any way.


I didn't pick that comparison out of thin air

http://baseballreference.com/friv/scomp ... =25&age=25

Edmonds highest HR total in the minors? 144 in AA/AAA. never had a slugging percentage over .492.

Tracy never had an OBP under .350 in the minors.
.393 OBP in A
.396 OBP in AA
.370 in AAA.

Not sure what player you are looking at , but it ain't Chad Tracy.


Yeah, and all those OBPs were inflated by his high average, which, given his age relative to the league(s), I don't think he will repeat quite as high. Maybe .310ish at best. When I say OBP skills, I mean walking skills.

And 144 HR's is pretty decent ;-D :-D

Comparing past minor league stats to project a player's future isn't very accurate. i.e. Eaton is not going to turn into Jason Schmidt. I severely, severely doubt Tracy is going to become an Edmonds type offensive force.
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