Pedantic wrote:Just because a player hits doubles doesn't mean that they automatically become home run hitters later. In the season you mentioned, his ISO was still only .142. Those kinds of numbers don't breed power hitters. He's a good hitter who can hit the gaps, but not much more (not that that in and of itself is bad).
Of course, it doesn't automatically mean it happens, but looking at a player's full level of production, rather than just his homers, is a better predictor of power development. Tracy's not very likely to hit 40 or 50 homers, but if you look at his comps half or more of them sustained their power surge and regularly hit 25-35 homers. He has that potential.
And there are tons of minor league players who post ISOs that low and later develop decent power. Two of Tracy's comps, Magglio Ordonez (minor league ISO of .146) and Jim Edmonds (minor league ISO of .144) are good examples.
So, while most people are seeing a drop in homers from 7-12, I think it will be more modest given his development and home park, and could even be no drop (depending on where he ends up playing and how often he plays).