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Under the radar guy, Chad Tracy?

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Postby hybrid » Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:51 pm

It's not just that he never has shown power, it's also that his swing isn't designed for power either (HR's I mean). His whole style at bat is to have a good eye and put good swings on pitches he can hit. When you have solid contact especially in that ballpark, you will get your fair share of doubles ... that ballpark is pretty hitter friendly. Put him in another park and it's fairly safe to say his numbers won't be as good.

Anyways, most of us who don't think he has good power still said 15-20. Which is pretty close to your idea of "low 20's".
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Postby mweir145 » Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:11 am

He is one of the guys I think the Jays should keep an eye on, he would really improve the team, they would of course have to make a trade or two to open up a spot for him.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Dec 03, 2005 12:18 am

hybrid wrote:It's not just that he never has shown power, it's also that his swing isn't designed for power either (HR's I mean). His whole style at bat is to have a good eye and put good swings on pitches he can hit. When you have solid contact especially in that ballpark, you will get your fair share of doubles ... that ballpark is pretty hitter friendly. Put him in another park and it's fairly safe to say his numbers won't be as good.

Anyways, most of us who don't think he has good power still said 15-20. Which is pretty close to your idea of "low 20's".


It's simply not true that he never has shown power. As a 22 year old he slugged .486. The problem is defining " showing power" as "hitting homers". Power in young guys is better judged by their slugging percentage, isolated power, or just total extra base hits.

Rickie Weeks had only 8 HRs in 2004, but he had 41 other extra base hits. As he matures, those 2Bs and 3Bs become HRs and he hits 25 last year.
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Postby Pedantic » Sat Dec 03, 2005 1:33 am

Just because a player hits doubles doesn't mean that they automatically become home run hitters later. In the season you mentioned, his ISO was still only .142. Those kinds of numbers don't breed power hitters. He's a good hitter who can hit the gaps, but not much more (not that that in and of itself is bad).
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Dec 03, 2005 9:02 am

Pedantic wrote:Just because a player hits doubles doesn't mean that they automatically become home run hitters later. In the season you mentioned, his ISO was still only .142. Those kinds of numbers don't breed power hitters. He's a good hitter who can hit the gaps, but not much more (not that that in and of itself is bad).


Of course, it doesn't automatically mean it happens, but looking at a player's full level of production, rather than just his homers, is a better predictor of power development. Tracy's not very likely to hit 40 or 50 homers, but if you look at his comps half or more of them sustained their power surge and regularly hit 25-35 homers. He has that potential.

And there are tons of minor league players who post ISOs that low and later develop decent power. Two of Tracy's comps, Magglio Ordonez (minor league ISO of .146) and Jim Edmonds (minor league ISO of .144) are good examples.

So, while most people are seeing a drop in homers from 7-12, I think it will be more modest given his development and home park, and could even be no drop (depending on where he ends up playing and how often he plays).
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Postby chadlincoln » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:26 am

I'd take a flier on Tracy in the later rounds.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:58 am

chadlincoln wrote:I'd take a flier on Tracy in the later rounds.


Not sure what you might mean by later rounds, but if you are thinking after round 20, I don't think that'll happen (unless Tracy's role as a starter is in question).

He's not an under the radar guy in 2006, imo. This is a guy that has 1B and OF eligibility, hit over .300 and more than 25 HRs. He finished the season ranked as the number 122nd player in yahoo. In mid-season ESPN drafts his average pick was 211. I'm seen him ranked anywhere from 75 to 200 in 2006 rankings. He won't last past round 15, unless he's sent to a strong pitcher's park or has playing time doubts.
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Postby stevethumb » Sat Dec 03, 2005 11:01 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:I'd take a flier on Tracy in the later rounds.


Not sure what you might mean by later rounds, but if you are thinking after round 20, I don't think that'll happen (unless Tracy's role as a starter is in question).

He's not an under the radar guy in 2006, imo. This is a guy that has 1B and OF eligibility, hit over .300 and more than 25 HRs. He finished the season ranked as the number 122nd player in yahoo. In mid-season ESPN drafts his average pick was 211. I'm seen him ranked anywhere from 75 to 200 in 2006 rankings. He won't last past round 15, unless he's sent to a strong pitcher's park or has playing time doubts.
...how would your assessment of ctracy translate to a $ value in a 13 team NL only league ? i love this guy..he can flat out hit and has pos flexibility
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Postby rlee » Sat Dec 03, 2005 11:05 am

Pedantic wrote:Just because a player hits doubles doesn't mean that they automatically become home run hitters later. In the season you mentioned, his ISO was still only .142. Those kinds of numbers don't breed power hitters. He's a good hitter who can hit the gaps, but not much more (not that that in and of itself is bad).


There a re no guarantees anywhere in life ... but typically as a player matures physically, those 2Bs will turn into HRs. I haven't followed Tracy all that closely, but it seems to me that the now
ex-BOB (don't know the new name) helps most hitters, so if he moves on, his value will have to be re-examined.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Dec 03, 2005 11:34 am

stevethumb wrote:
...how would your assessment of ctracy translate to a $ value in a 13 team NL only league ? i love this guy..he can flat out hit and has pos flexibility[/quote]

I'm not an auction guy, but I plugged it into this one:

http://www.thomasgeorge.com/baseball/dollar_parms.cfm

And it put him at $23
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