GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Sometimes it's not so much how good the guy coming is is, as how bad the guy going out is. Bringing in Millwood and Byrd is probably a 5-10 win improvement over what we got from RLopez and Ponson last year. That gets you to .500. To contend, you need to make an equal or better improvement on offense.
Adding Garciaparra and dropping Palmeiro is, at best, a small gain (I wouldn't sign Nomar unless he agreed to a performance based contract to protect us in case of injury and I wouldn't put him at 3B over Mora. DH him to protect him from injury--of course, I doubtyou get him if he doesn't get a chance to play in the field).
In order to improve the offense enough to contend,you'd have to sign Konerko AND Molina or RHernandez. That gets you another 5-10 wins, and puts you in the mid 80-90 win range that at least give you a chance.
Of course, anyone who thinks the O's will sign 5 free agents is delusional.
My thoughts: Sign Konerko or trade for Chad Tracy. That gives needed lefty bat at 1B. Put Gibbons at rf and platoon him with Byrnes.
Sign either Millwood, Burnitz or Byrd and hope Leo works his magic on young pitchers.
Forget targetting the catchers. The value for what they cost is too much. You don't need a another full-time catcher. You need a good back-up (unlike the c*** we've had). I'd look at Yorvit Torrealba, now available cheap, since the Mariners signed the Japanese stud. He's still young (27) and he crushes lefties. Against lefties, you move Javy to DH and play Torrealba.
For LF, I go for a short-term deal for a good field, good hit player in Rondell White. Other than Konerko there aren't a lot of decent young players worth pursuing, so save your $
Versus righties then: C: Lopez 1B: Konerko/Tracy 2B: Roberts SS: Tejada 3B: Mora RF: Gibbons CF: Matos LF: White DH: Walter Young
Versus lefties: C; Torrealba 1B: Konerko/Tracy 2B: Roberts ss: Tejada 3B: Mora RF: Byrnes CF: Matos LF: White DH: Lopez
It ain't great, but it's a little more realistic.
I agree with leaving catchers alone, heck, Fasano did a respectable job last year if they really want to move Lopez to DH. No way in hell should the O's mess with RonDL White. Id rather take my chances on a one year incentive laden contrat with Nomar. I doubt we'll get Konerko, but Tracy would be a good pick-up, not earth moving, but a good young talent IMO. Ireally think they can fill their OF need from within. And as for their starting pitching, I want to be in the fantasy league with Phatferd if thinks Millwood, Byrd, Bedard, and Cabrera are not repectable pitchers...
Millwood's year by year. 3 good years out of 9. You can have him. Especially in Camden. He is no ace that is for sure. Even Estebon Loiaza had a sub 3 ERA.
Bedard what suggests he will be a great pitcher? He hasn't done anything in the 2 years he's had a job. Too many players have potential that never merit it. Ramon Ortiz was supposed to be the next Pedro. More players than not turn into nothing than actually live up to the hype.
You can all have this staff and fight it out for 4th place in the AL East. Boston's staff with Schilling and Beckett and whatever 3 other guys they throw out there are better than this. NYY is probably comparable because their staff is just awful outside of RJ. I would take the NYY staff based on history over this sorry staff.
Add to that almost every team in the division has a better offense than you other than Toronto, but they look to be in on some offense and TB has a young emerging offense that showed signs last year.
Phatferd wrote:Millwood's year by year. 3 good years out of 9. You can have him. Especially in Camden. He is no ace that is for sure. Even Estebon Loiaza had a sub 3 ERA.
No, two great years (1999 and 2005), one good year (2002), 5 years as an average pitcher (every year except 2004) and one below average year in 2004. Camden, by the way, is not a bad park for pitchers.
As I said, sometimes it ain't what you are getting, but what it is replacing.
Millwood, ain't great, but if you replace Ponson's 35 starts with 35 starts by Millwood, you're saving two runs per game, even if Millwood has an average season. Minimum that's a 30 run improvement, with a potential of 70-80 runs saved.
Phatferd wrote:Bedard what suggests he will be a great pitcher? He hasn't done anything in the 2 years he's had a job. Too many players have potential that never merit it. Ramon Ortiz was supposed to be the next Pedro. More players than not turn into nothing than actually live up to the hype.
Not great, but two straight above average years, and showing improvement. 13 HRs in 2004, 10 in 2005. 71 BB in 2004, 57 in 2005. He's a solid 3/4 pitcher.
Phatferd wrote:Check out this beast's numbers! Man this guy is a stud for sure!
Not a beast, but a decent 3/4 pitcher. He's 24 and you'll notice in his numbers that he more than doubled his Ks while reducing his BB last year. That's an excellent sign of progress.
Phatferd wrote:You can all have this staff and fight it out for 4th place in the AL East. Boston's staff with Schilling and Beckett and whatever 3 other guys they throw out there are better than this. NYY is probably comparable because their staff is just awful outside of RJ. I would take the NYY staff based on history over this sorry staff.
Add to that almost every team in the division has a better offense than you other than Toronto, but they look to be in on some offense and TB has a young emerging offense that showed signs last year.
I've said all along that the Orioles are, realistically, at least 3 years from contending. The goal right now is .500. Nonw of these pitchers are great, but they could easily be a slightly above average staff, and that's heading in the right direction.
As for offense, the Orioles were 10th in runs, but that overstates their offensive weaknesses. They were actually 4th in the league in park adjusted OPS, suggesting that bad luck/bad managing and other factors reduced their scoring. The moves I suggested, taking max advantages of platoon splits, and not locking themselves into long-term contracts with older players, will get them to .500 this year, and poised to get bigger and better FA in 2007.
Phatferd wrote:Millwood's year by year. 3 good years out of 9. You can have him. Especially in Camden. He is no ace that is for sure. Even Estebon Loiaza had a sub 3 ERA.
No, two great years (1999 and 2005), one good year (2002), 5 years as an average pitcher (every year except 2004) and one below average year in 2004. Camden, by the way, is not a bad park for pitchers.
As I said, sometimes it ain't what you are getting, but what it is replacing.
Millwood, ain't great, but if you replace Ponson's 35 starts with 35 starts by Millwood, you're saving two runs per game, even if Millwood has an average season. Minimum that's a 30 run improvement, with a potential of 70-80 runs saved.
Phatferd wrote:Bedard what suggests he will be a great pitcher? He hasn't done anything in the 2 years he's had a job. Too many players have potential that never merit it. Ramon Ortiz was supposed to be the next Pedro. More players than not turn into nothing than actually live up to the hype.
Not great, but two straight above average years, and showing improvement. 13 HRs in 2004, 10 in 2005. 71 BB in 2004, 57 in 2005. He's a solid 3/4 pitcher.
Phatferd wrote:Check out this beast's numbers! Man this guy is a stud for sure!
Not a beast, but a decent 3/4 pitcher. He's 24 and you'll notice in his numbers that he more than doubled his Ks while reducing his BB last year. That's an excellent sign of progress.
Phatferd wrote:You can all have this staff and fight it out for 4th place in the AL East. Boston's staff with Schilling and Beckett and whatever 3 other guys they throw out there are better than this. NYY is probably comparable because their staff is just awful outside of RJ. I would take the NYY staff based on history over this sorry staff.
Add to that almost every team in the division has a better offense than you other than Toronto, but they look to be in on some offense and TB has a young emerging offense that showed signs last year.
I've said all along that the Orioles are, realistically, at least 3 years from contending. The goal right now is .500. Nonw of these pitchers are great, but they could easily be a slightly above average staff, and that's heading in the right direction.
As for offense, the Orioles were 10th in runs, but that overstates their offensive weaknesses. They were actually 4th in the league in park adjusted OPS, suggesting that bad luck/bad managing and other factors reduced their scoring. The moves I suggested, taking max advantages of platoon splits, and not locking themselves into long-term contracts with older players, will get them to .500 this year, and poised to get bigger and better FA in 2007.
I didn't intend for my post to be directed towards you. You have a level head and make the most sense.
It was directed at the genius who I would destroy in a league if he had that staff.
Comrade Antelope wrote:K. Millwood E. Bedard P. Byrd B. Chen D. Cabrera Penn/Maine/Lopez
not too shabby...
Meh, I am not that impressed with this staff. There is no ace and I would even say not a distinct number 2 type. Millwood had a decent year, but he doesn't impress me at all. Bedard may develop into a number 2, but he struggled hard in the 2nd half last year. Byrd is the perfect number 3 type. Chen is nothing special and Cabrera has control issues.
I think you're undervaluing how much Bedard and Cabrera could improve, especiallly with Leo Mazzone as a pitching coach. Carbrera has awesome stuff that just needs to be harnassed. As another post said, Bedard has shown consistent improvement. If he continue to improve at the same rate as last year, he'll be down to a 3.50 ERA in 2006. The Orioles had a nasty collaspe in the second half which was caused by an inexperienced pitching staff, plus some off field stuff that won't be there next year.
I think they are a real sleeper in 2006. The inexperienced pitching staff has a year experience, and I don't think they'll collaspe like last year.
More important than Millwood is a replacement to Ryan, and a shoring up of middle relief. I think middle relief really did them in last year. They could'nt get to Ryan. They need a reliable bridge to whomever the closer is going to be.
I think you're undervaluing how much Bedard and Cabrera could improve, especiallly with Leo Mazzone as a pitching coach. Carbrera has awesome stuff that just needs to be harnassed. As another post said, Bedard has shown consistent improvement. If he continue to improve at the same rate as last year, he'll be down to a 3.50 ERA in 2006. The Orioles had a nasty collaspe in the second half which was caused by an inexperienced pitching staff, plus some off field stuff that won't be there next year.
I think they are a real sleeper in 2006. The inexperienced pitching staff has a year experience, and I don't think they'll collaspe like last year.
More important than Millwood is a replacement to Ryan, and a shoring up of middle relief. I think middle relief really did them in last year. They could'nt get to Ryan. They need a reliable bridge to whomever the closer is going to be.
Could and if is not will be good.
If this were the case we wouldn't even draft players after the 10th round because everyone would pan out and there would be no need for any more rounds because teams would be filled.
Bedard has shown improvement every year? He's pitched 2 years and showed to still have a 4 ERA.
Cabrera don't even kid with me. He is around a 5 ERA and has posted one to boot. You know how many pitchers have "stuff" but can't do anything with it.
Get back to me when it happens and I will say I was wrong, but you guy's are basing way too much on hypothetical.
I can't see why they don't just try and get a couple of Mazzone reclamation projects from somewhere, and go full-on rebuild. With the Jays increasing payroll, and even the D-Rays coming to the boil in the next couple of years, the O's could conceivably improve their team a fair bit and still finish fourth or fifth. If they target 3-4 year's time, that's when the backloading on the Jeter-Giambi-ARod deals really starts to bite in NY I believe, so they could have a shot.
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All I know is that Millwood will get paid as if he is going to pitch like he did in 2005 every year when history demonstrates that he is more toward mediocre 2 out of 3 seasons.
Halo Homers wrote:I agree that Byrd is not going to save the pitching, but he is solid 3-4 guy a reliable innings eater who gives you a chance to win every time out. I was hoping to Angels would resign him. He's a good pick up.
Is Byrd even worth anything, let alone that much $$$?
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by Phatferd » Sun Nov 27, 2005 8:21 pm 
