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Postby Phatferd » Sun Nov 27, 2005 8:21 pm

Comrade Antelope wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Sometimes it's not so much how good the guy coming is is, as how bad the guy going out is. Bringing in Millwood and Byrd is probably a 5-10 win improvement over what we got from RLopez and Ponson last year. That gets you to .500. To contend, you need to make an equal or better improvement on offense.

Adding Garciaparra and dropping Palmeiro is, at best, a small gain (I wouldn't sign Nomar unless he agreed to a performance based contract to protect us in case of injury and I wouldn't put him at 3B over Mora. DH him to protect him from injury--of course, I doubtyou get him if he doesn't get a chance to play in the field).

In order to improve the offense enough to contend,you'd have to sign Konerko AND Molina or RHernandez. That gets you another 5-10 wins, and puts you in the mid 80-90 win range that at least give you a chance.

Of course, anyone who thinks the O's will sign 5 free agents is delusional.

My thoughts:
Sign Konerko or trade for Chad Tracy. That gives needed lefty bat at 1B. Put Gibbons at rf and platoon him with Byrnes.

Sign either Millwood, Burnitz or Byrd and hope Leo works his magic on young pitchers.

Forget targetting the catchers. The value for what they cost is too much. You don't need a another full-time catcher. You need a good back-up (unlike the c*** we've had). I'd look at Yorvit Torrealba, now available cheap, since the Mariners signed the Japanese stud. He's still young (27) and he crushes lefties. Against lefties, you move Javy to DH and play Torrealba.

For LF, I go for a short-term deal for a good field, good hit player in Rondell White. Other than Konerko there aren't a lot of decent young players worth pursuing, so save your $

Versus righties then:
C: Lopez
1B: Konerko/Tracy
2B: Roberts
SS: Tejada
3B: Mora
RF: Gibbons
CF: Matos
LF: White
DH: Walter Young

Versus lefties:
C; Torrealba
1B: Konerko/Tracy
2B: Roberts
ss: Tejada
3B: Mora
RF: Byrnes
CF: Matos
LF: White
DH: Lopez

It ain't great, but it's a little more realistic.


I agree with leaving catchers alone, heck, Fasano did a respectable job last year if they really want to move Lopez to DH. No way in hell should the O's mess with RonDL White. Id rather take my chances on a one year incentive laden contrat with Nomar. I doubt we'll get Konerko, but Tracy would be a good pick-up, not earth moving, but a good young talent IMO. Ireally think they can fill their OF need from within. And as for their starting pitching, I want to be in the fantasy league with Phatferd if thinks Millwood, Byrd, Bedard, and Cabrera are not repectable pitchers...


I'd dominate you if you had that staff.
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Postby Phatferd » Sun Nov 27, 2005 8:36 pm

Millwood's year by year. 3 good years out of 9. You can have him. Especially in Camden. He is no ace that is for sure. Even Estebon Loiaza had a sub 3 ERA.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1997 Atl 12 8 0 0 51.1 55 26 23 1 21 42 5 3 0 0 -- 4.03
1998 Atl 31 29 3 1 174.1 175 86 79 18 56 163 17 8 0 1 -- 4.08
1999 Atl 33 33 2 0 228.0 168 80 68 24 59 205 18 7 0 0 -- 2.68
2000 Atl 36 35 0 0 213.2 213 115 110 26 62 168 10 13 0 0 -- 4.66
2001 Atl 21 21 0 0 121.0 121 66 58 20 40 84 7 7 0 0 -- 4.31
2002 Atl 35 34 1 1 217.0 186 83 78 16 65 178 18 8 0 0 -- 3.24
2003 Phi 35 35 5 3 222.0 210 103 99 19 68 169 14 12 0 0 -- 4.01
2004 Phi 25 25 0 0 141.0 155 81 76 14 51 125 9 6 0 0 -- 4.85
2005 Cle 30 30 1 0 192.0 182 72 61 20 52 146 9 11 0 0 -- 2.86


Byrd who I think is the best pitcher on this team if that is the rotation is not an ace and just a solid pitcher nothing more.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1995 NYM 17 0 0 0 22.0 18 6 5 1 7 26 2 0 0 3 -- 2.05
1996 NYM 38 0 0 0 47.2 48 22 22 7 21 31 1 2 0 3 2 4.24
1997 Atl 31 4 0 0 53.0 47 34 31 6 28 37 4 4 0 1 -- 5.26
1998 Atl 1 0 0 0 2.0 4 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -- 13.50
1998 Phi 8 8 2 1 55.0 41 16 14 6 17 38 5 2 0 0 -- 2.29
1998 -- 9 8 2 1 57.0 45 19 17 6 18 39 5 2 0 0 -- 2.68
1999 Phi 32 32 1 0 200.2 205 119 102 34 70 106 15 11 0 0 -- 4.60
2000 Phi 17 15 0 0 83.0 89 67 60 17 35 53 2 9 0 0 -- 6.51
2001 KC 16 15 1 0 93.1 110 45 42 11 22 49 6 6 0 0 -- 4.05
2001 Phi 3 1 0 0 10.0 10 9 9 1 4 3 0 1 0 0 -- 8.10
2001 -- 19 16 1 0 103.1 120 54 51 12 26 52 6 7 0 0 -- 4.44
2002 KC 33 33 7 2 228.1 224 111 99 36 38 129 17 11 0 0 -- 3.90
2004 Atl 19 19 0 0 114.1 123 57 50 18 19 79 8 7 0 0 -- 3.94
2005 LAA 31 31 2 1 204.1 216 95 85 22 28 102 12 11 0 0 -- 3.74


Bedard what suggests he will be a great pitcher? He hasn't done anything in the 2 years he's had a job. Too many players have potential that never merit it. Ramon Ortiz was supposed to be the next Pedro. More players than not turn into nothing than actually live up to the hype.

2002 Bal 2 0 0 0 1.2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -- 13.50
2004 Bal 27 26 0 0 137.1 149 83 70 13 71 121 6 10 0 0 -- 4.59
2005 Bal 24 24 0 0 142.2 139 66 63 10 57 125 6 8 0 0 -- 4.00


Check out this beast's numbers! Man this guy is a stud for sure!

2004 Bal 28 27 1 1 148.2 145 85 82 14 89 76 12 8 1 0 0 5.00
2005 Bal 29 29 0 0 161.1 144 92 81 14 87 157 10 13 0 0 -- 4.52


You can all have this staff and fight it out for 4th place in the AL East. Boston's staff with Schilling and Beckett and whatever 3 other guys they throw out there are better than this. NYY is probably comparable because their staff is just awful outside of RJ. I would take the NYY staff based on history over this sorry staff.

Add to that almost every team in the division has a better offense than you other than Toronto, but they look to be in on some offense and TB has a young emerging offense that showed signs last year.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Nov 27, 2005 9:13 pm

Phatferd wrote:Millwood's year by year. 3 good years out of 9. You can have him. Especially in Camden. He is no ace that is for sure. Even Estebon Loiaza had a sub 3 ERA.


No, two great years (1999 and 2005), one good year (2002), 5 years as an average pitcher (every year except 2004) and one below average year in 2004. Camden, by the way, is not a bad park for pitchers.

As I said, sometimes it ain't what you are getting, but what it is replacing.

Millwood, ain't great, but if you replace Ponson's 35 starts with 35 starts by Millwood, you're saving two runs per game, even if Millwood has an average season. Minimum that's a 30 run improvement, with a potential of 70-80 runs saved.

Phatferd wrote:Bedard what suggests he will be a great pitcher? He hasn't done anything in the 2 years he's had a job. Too many players have potential that never merit it. Ramon Ortiz was supposed to be the next Pedro. More players than not turn into nothing than actually live up to the hype.


Not great, but two straight above average years, and showing improvement. 13 HRs in 2004, 10 in 2005. 71 BB in 2004, 57 in 2005. He's a solid 3/4 pitcher.


Phatferd wrote:Check out this beast's numbers! Man this guy is a stud for sure!


Not a beast, but a decent 3/4 pitcher. He's 24 and you'll notice in his numbers that he more than doubled his Ks while reducing his BB last year. That's an excellent sign of progress.


Phatferd wrote:You can all have this staff and fight it out for 4th place in the AL East. Boston's staff with Schilling and Beckett and whatever 3 other guys they throw out there are better than this. NYY is probably comparable because their staff is just awful outside of RJ. I would take the NYY staff based on history over this sorry staff.

Add to that almost every team in the division has a better offense than you other than Toronto, but they look to be in on some offense and TB has a young emerging offense that showed signs last year.


I've said all along that the Orioles are, realistically, at least 3 years from contending. The goal right now is .500. Nonw of these pitchers are great, but they could easily be a slightly above average staff, and that's heading in the right direction.

As for offense, the Orioles were 10th in runs, but that overstates their offensive weaknesses. They were actually 4th in the league in park adjusted OPS, suggesting that bad luck/bad managing and other factors reduced their scoring. The moves I suggested, taking max advantages of platoon splits, and not locking themselves into long-term contracts with older players, will get them to .500 this year, and poised to get bigger and better FA in 2007.
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Postby Phatferd » Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:22 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Phatferd wrote:Millwood's year by year. 3 good years out of 9. You can have him. Especially in Camden. He is no ace that is for sure. Even Estebon Loiaza had a sub 3 ERA.


No, two great years (1999 and 2005), one good year (2002), 5 years as an average pitcher (every year except 2004) and one below average year in 2004. Camden, by the way, is not a bad park for pitchers.

As I said, sometimes it ain't what you are getting, but what it is replacing.

Millwood, ain't great, but if you replace Ponson's 35 starts with 35 starts by Millwood, you're saving two runs per game, even if Millwood has an average season. Minimum that's a 30 run improvement, with a potential of 70-80 runs saved.

Phatferd wrote:Bedard what suggests he will be a great pitcher? He hasn't done anything in the 2 years he's had a job. Too many players have potential that never merit it. Ramon Ortiz was supposed to be the next Pedro. More players than not turn into nothing than actually live up to the hype.


Not great, but two straight above average years, and showing improvement. 13 HRs in 2004, 10 in 2005. 71 BB in 2004, 57 in 2005. He's a solid 3/4 pitcher.


Phatferd wrote:Check out this beast's numbers! Man this guy is a stud for sure!


Not a beast, but a decent 3/4 pitcher. He's 24 and you'll notice in his numbers that he more than doubled his Ks while reducing his BB last year. That's an excellent sign of progress.


Phatferd wrote:You can all have this staff and fight it out for 4th place in the AL East. Boston's staff with Schilling and Beckett and whatever 3 other guys they throw out there are better than this. NYY is probably comparable because their staff is just awful outside of RJ. I would take the NYY staff based on history over this sorry staff.

Add to that almost every team in the division has a better offense than you other than Toronto, but they look to be in on some offense and TB has a young emerging offense that showed signs last year.


I've said all along that the Orioles are, realistically, at least 3 years from contending. The goal right now is .500. Nonw of these pitchers are great, but they could easily be a slightly above average staff, and that's heading in the right direction.

As for offense, the Orioles were 10th in runs, but that overstates their offensive weaknesses. They were actually 4th in the league in park adjusted OPS, suggesting that bad luck/bad managing and other factors reduced their scoring. The moves I suggested, taking max advantages of platoon splits, and not locking themselves into long-term contracts with older players, will get them to .500 this year, and poised to get bigger and better FA in 2007.


I didn't intend for my post to be directed towards you. You have a level head and make the most sense.

It was directed at the genius who I would destroy in a league if he had that staff.
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Postby Halo Homers » Mon Nov 28, 2005 2:46 am

Phatferd wrote:
Comrade Antelope wrote:K. Millwood
E. Bedard
P. Byrd
B. Chen
D. Cabrera
Penn/Maine/Lopez

not too shabby...


Meh, I am not that impressed with this staff. There is no ace and I would even say not a distinct number 2 type. Millwood had a decent year, but he doesn't impress me at all. Bedard may develop into a number 2, but he struggled hard in the 2nd half last year. Byrd is the perfect number 3 type. Chen is nothing special and Cabrera has control issues.

This rotation won't cut it IMO.


________________________________________________________

I think you're undervaluing how much Bedard and Cabrera could improve, especiallly with Leo Mazzone as a pitching coach. Carbrera has awesome stuff that just needs to be harnassed. As another post said, Bedard has shown consistent improvement. If he continue to improve at the same rate as last year, he'll be down to a 3.50 ERA in 2006. The Orioles had a nasty collaspe in the second half which was caused by an inexperienced pitching staff, plus some off field stuff that won't be there next year.

I think they are a real sleeper in 2006. The inexperienced pitching staff has a year experience, and I don't think they'll collaspe like last year.

More important than Millwood is a replacement to Ryan, and a shoring up of middle relief. I think middle relief really did them in last year. They could'nt get to Ryan. They need a reliable bridge to whomever the closer is going to be.
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Postby Phatferd » Mon Nov 28, 2005 4:46 am

Halo Homers wrote:________________________________________________________

I think you're undervaluing how much Bedard and Cabrera could improve, especiallly with Leo Mazzone as a pitching coach. Carbrera has awesome stuff that just needs to be harnassed. As another post said, Bedard has shown consistent improvement. If he continue to improve at the same rate as last year, he'll be down to a 3.50 ERA in 2006. The Orioles had a nasty collaspe in the second half which was caused by an inexperienced pitching staff, plus some off field stuff that won't be there next year.

I think they are a real sleeper in 2006. The inexperienced pitching staff has a year experience, and I don't think they'll collaspe like last year.

More important than Millwood is a replacement to Ryan, and a shoring up of middle relief. I think middle relief really did them in last year. They could'nt get to Ryan. They need a reliable bridge to whomever the closer is going to be.


Could and if is not will be good.

If this were the case we wouldn't even draft players after the 10th round because everyone would pan out and there would be no need for any more rounds because teams would be filled.

Bedard has shown improvement every year? He's pitched 2 years and showed to still have a 4 ERA.

Cabrera don't even kid with me. He is around a 5 ERA and has posted one to boot. You know how many pitchers have "stuff" but can't do anything with it.

Get back to me when it happens and I will say I was wrong, but you guy's are basing way too much on hypothetical.
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Postby BritSox » Mon Nov 28, 2005 9:43 am

I can't see why they don't just try and get a couple of Mazzone reclamation projects from somewhere, and go full-on rebuild. With the Jays increasing payroll, and even the D-Rays coming to the boil in the next couple of years, the O's could conceivably improve their team a fair bit and still finish fourth or fifth. If they target 3-4 year's time, that's when the backloading on the Jeter-Giambi-ARod deals really starts to bite in NY I believe, so they could have a shot.
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Postby stumpak » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:30 am

Millwood = Stud

Hahahahaha.

All I know is that Millwood will get paid as if he is going to pitch like he did in 2005 every year when history demonstrates that he is more toward mediocre 2 out of 3 seasons.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:37 am

Are the Orioles out of the running for Burnett?

I thought that they had a very good shot at landing him.
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Postby chadlincoln » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:38 am

Halo Homers wrote:I agree that Byrd is not going to save the pitching, but he is solid 3-4 guy a reliable innings eater who gives you a chance to win every time out. I was hoping to Angels would resign him. He's a good pick up.
Is Byrd even worth anything, let alone that much $$$?
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