Another guy under the radar: Todd Walker, who is a slock for at least .290/15 if he gets a full-time job and maybe a lot more if he is in the right place. He suddenly learned to hit lefties last year. He is not top 10, but once you are past the first 5 or 6 guys he could be a great value alternative.
Additionally, it seems that everyone has finally realized that Luis Castillo is a piece of crap. Too bad, since drafting him too high would sink at least one team in most every league most every year. I remember that as late as last year some people woudl rate him as top five.
TheYanks04 wrote:Last year, Kent was being dismissed as useless by many here and Loretta was ranked quite well also. And of course, according to Gleeman over at Rotoworld, he would not want Kent because he plans out keeper leagues 10 years into the future.
Good to see some of these new rankings. 2B has always been a thorn in my side. Last year saw some new talent start to get developed/entrenched that will make the position much deeper. Should be good bargains to be had in later rounds for those of us paying attention.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
GotowarMissAgnes wrote: You have a real sleeper in the fact that Mike Lowell gained 2b eligibility.
good catch...do you think he'll get significant playing time?
My guess is he starts at 3B and Youk moves to 1B. He's a decent candidate to rebound, given his age and the fact that he's moving from a pitcher's to a hitter's park.
Let's be generous and suppose that Soriano puts up a .750 OPS in Wrigley, that would put him right ahead of Chone Figgins! (.749 OPS) That is, drop him from 6th in OPS among 2B 14th.
With Soriano, it might be better to look at his SLG. Let's do that!
2005
home: .656
away: .374
2004
home: .526
away: .444
This year he was basically in a three-way tie for 2nd in SLG among 2B (with Roberts and Kent, all behind Utley). If he puts up a .450 SLG in Wrigley he'd drop to 10th, tied with R. Belliard, nestled between Cano (.458) and Iguchi (.438).
Really though it's hard to predict what Soriano does at Wrigley. He certainly won't put up home numbers like he did at Arlington, but is unlikely to post numbers like his away splits. Say he hits .260 with 20 HR and 20 SB. Still valuable, but likely to get taken WAY too early. Better to wait several rounds and get Iguchi or F. Lopez. Or, better yet, take Utley after Soriano and watch him put up the best numbers of any 2B in 2006!
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
Let's be generous and suppose that Soriano puts up a .750 OPS in Wrigley, that would put him right ahead of Chone Figgins! (.749 OPS) That is, drop him from 6th in OPS among 2B to 14th.
With Soriano, it might be better to look at his SLG. Let's do that!
2005 home: .656 away: .374
2004 home: .526 away: .444
This year he was basically in a three-way tie for 2nd in SLG among 2B (with Roberts and Kent, all behind Utley). If he puts up a .450 SLG in Wrigley he'd drop to 10th, tied with R. Belliard, nestled between Cano (.458) and Iguchi (.438).
Really though it's hard to predict what Soriano does at Wrigley. He certainly won't put up home numbers like he did at Arlington, but is unlikely to post numbers like his away splits. Say he hits .260 with 20 HR and 20 SB. Still valuable, but likely to get taken WAY too early. Better to wait several rounds and get Iguchi or F. Lopez. Or, better yet, take Utley after Soriano and watch him put up the best numbers of any 2B in 2006!
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
ramble2 wrote:Really though it's hard to predict what Soriano does at Wrigley. He certainly won't put up home numbers like he did at Arlington, but is unlikely to post numbers like his away splits. Say he hits .260 with 20 HR and 20 SB. Still valuable, but likely to get taken WAY too early. Better to wait several rounds and get Iguchi or F. Lopez. Or, better yet, take Utley after Soriano and watch him put up the best numbers of any 2B in 2006!
Why will his Wrigley numbers differ from his road numbers at Arlington?
But, like I said, and your numbers showed, even if he hits significantly better than his road numbers, he goes from being a Top 20 player to a pretty pedestrian 2B. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that the move to the NL to a team that scored 162 fewer runs than Texas last year would crush his R and RBIs down by 15-20.
ramble2 wrote:Really though it's hard to predict what Soriano does at Wrigley. He certainly won't put up home numbers like he did at Arlington, but is unlikely to post numbers like his away splits. Say he hits .260 with 20 HR and 20 SB. Still valuable, but likely to get taken WAY too early. Better to wait several rounds and get Iguchi or F. Lopez. Or, better yet, take Utley after Soriano and watch him put up the best numbers of any 2B in 2006!
Why will his Wrigley numbers differ from his road numbers at Arlington?
I'm just trying to be generous. Maybe he hates travelling. It's not that unlikely that a player would perform better at home than on the road, all else equal.
Mostly my guesstimate is because Wrigley isn't a bad park for RHB to hit in. I haven't seen the 2005 Bill James handbook, but the 2004 has Wrigley at a 126 HR index for RHB (3rd best in the NL). The Ballpark in Arlington (or whatever it's called today) is tops in the AL at 135. I don't know whether the indexes can be compared across leagues or not (I suspect not). Soriano's average is likely to take a hit (even .260 could be a stretch), but he'll still have decent power at Chicago (though not like Texas). Do you project him at less than 20 HR in 2006 if he moves to Wrigley? That's a 45% drop in HR.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:But, like I said, and your numbers showed, even if he hits significantly better than his road numbers, he goes from being a Top 20 player to a pretty pedestrian 2B. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that the move to the NL to a team that scored 162 fewer runs than Texas last year would crush his R and RBIs down by 15-20.
Agree completely. I'm laughing when people take Cubbie Soriano early, or keep him at a high price.
Bottom line: if Soriano is leaving Texas for anywhere other than Colorado, sell high!
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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