I'm thinking somewhere around 25/45 assuming his legs stay good and loose this year. If he drops to the third round in any of my leagues I'll give him another shot.
I'd pick Beltran in the 2nd round, mainly because I took Thome with so many teams last year in the 2nd, and I figure if I can survive that kind of failure I can take anything. Beltran can carry your team with a strong year, and if all I get from my 2nd rounder is .280 25/25 with 90 RBIs, well, I'll live with it.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
I think he is just a product of a tough hitter's environment. I don't see him hitting more than 25 HR's, at a .280 clip. The steals are nice, but Reggie Sanders will fall in your lap about 6 rounds later.
Well, I just took him @2.11 in our Mock(keeper) Draft, and I'll tell you why. UPSIDE. To me, his top end is undeniably studly. Do I think that he's gonna push 40/40 again? Probably not. But this line: .280 125runs 25hr 40sb 90Rbi is well within reach and that would make him a top 10 hitter. That line also looks a lot like what people are thinking Crawford MIGHT be able to do when he grows up. The difference in my eyes? Beltran has actually already done this a few times, on teams that were considerably weaker than the New New York Mets(oh yeah and he's 28, not 30 something). I'll take that opportunity with the 23rd pick every chance I get.
SCARPARIELLI wrote:Well, I just took him @2.11 in our Mock(keeper) Draft, and I'll tell you why. UPSIDE. To me, his top end is undeniably studly. Do I think that he's gonna push 40/40 again? Probably not. But this line: .280 125runs 25hr 40sb 90Rbi is well within reach and that would make him a top 10 hitter. That line also looks a lot like what people are thinking Crawford MIGHT be able to do when he grows up. The difference in my eyes? Beltran has actually already done this a few times, on teams that were considerably weaker than the New New York Mets(oh yeah and he's 28, not 30 something). I'll take that opportunity with the 23rd pick every chance I get.
To me, I think there are too many surer bets at 2.11 to take Beltran. He MAY go 30-30. But those numbers he acheived prior to 05 were under totally different circumstances, environment, etc.
I've seen too many potential superstar players come to NY and not perform. I can't imagine I will be drafting Beltran unless he falls to like the 4th or 5th round which ain't happening.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Beltran helped me win a league in 2004-- I drafted him in front of Vlad--and rode him to victory...Last year, I did the same trick, and won in spite of him...so this year......I will avoid him, unless he falls to 4th round or so, just because I don't like the unpredictability. Yes he has huge upside, and even another dissappointment from him will be better than a lot of players years.
But still, in those early rounds, you have to get the for-sure studs, and I just see him as more of a gamble now. Unbelievable that his stats are a little close to Reggie Sanders-ish!
Holy Hand Grenade wrote:Beltran will be the steal of the draft. You'll be able to get him in the 3rd round and he'll post 1st round numbers. He'll improve across the board.
Not so fast speedy. I doubt he will go much later than late 2nd round in serious leagues.
Based on what we saw in 05, it's tough to gauge whether he will put up 1st round numbers again.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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by Simulacrum » Tue Nov 29, 2005 6:49 pm 
