Sizemore this years Morneau? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Sizemore this years Morneau?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Sizemore

Postby El Gaupo » Sat Nov 26, 2005 11:34 pm

Dan Charette wrote:I think Sizemore is great. He got better as the year went on. There's not too many real good center fielders. If your league has LF, CF, and RF as opposed to just OF, then his value goes up more.
Potential 5 category player.

In defence of Morneau. Just wanted to add that Morneau had various ailments and injuries during the offseason last year.
He wasn't well for spring training. This took it's toll on his season. I think he can bounce back to .275 30 hrs and 90 rbi,s

Dan the Bluesman B-)


Comparing sizemore to morneau is a bit odd. but i agree with the above. If the Twins can add another bat to their line up I think it would help Morneau a lot. Speaking of ailments didn't Morneau get beaned in the head during the first month of the season. It was like his 4th or 5th concussion, the others were from playing hockey !!?? Via an MRI he decided not to have off season surgery on his elbow and should be ready for ST. Morneau definately had a tough 2005
El Gaupo
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 576
Joined: 4 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby wkelly91 » Sat Nov 26, 2005 11:40 pm

I think some of you are missing what I'm saying. Sizemore has one year under his belt...and he is going in the 3rd round of two mocks....I think that is a little too high for a relatively unproven player.

I used the "Hype" comparison of Morneau from the previous year. Morneau played half a year and hit around twenty homeruns, thus his hype was tremendous going into 2005 with some saying he could hit 40-50 homeruns....neadless too say he didn't.

Look at Corey Patterson, he was being touted as the next 30-30 guy, look how high he was going in drafts a few years ago...where is he now?

All I am saying is that it is a gamble to take a player so high based upon a limited sampling, he may pan out into a great player...maybe he won't. If I'm playing for money, this year is the most important year, so I'm taking proven players early...and gamble only on those I deem to have slipped. B-)
wkelly91
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2796
Joined: 10 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Looking over your shoulder as you type.

Postby El Gaupo » Sat Nov 26, 2005 11:51 pm

wkelly91 wrote:I think some of you are missing what I'm saying. Sizemore has one year under his belt...and he is going in the 3rd round of two mocks....I think that is a little too high for a relatively unproven player.

I used the "Hype" comparison of Morneau from the previous year. Morneau played half a year and hit around twenty homeruns, thus his hype was tremendous going into 2005 with some saying he could hit 40-50 homeruns....neadless too say he didn't.

Look at Corey Patterson, he was being touted as the next 30-30 guy, look how high he was going in drafts a few years ago...where is he now?

All I am saying is that it is a gamble to take a player so high based upon a limited sampling, he may pan out into a great player...maybe he won't. If I'm playing for money, this year is the most important year, so I'm taking proven players early...and gamble only on those I deem to have slipped. B-)



yes, based on your above comments I would agree. Just a gut feeling, but I think sizemore will continue to build on 2005, whereas Morneau I'm less certain.
El Gaupo
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 576
Joined: 4 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Nov 27, 2005 1:18 am

wkelly91 wrote:I think some of you are missing what I'm saying. Sizemore has one year under his belt...and he is going in the 3rd round of two mocks....I think that is a little too high for a relatively unproven player.

I used the "Hype" comparison of Morneau from the previous year. Morneau played half a year and hit around twenty homeruns, thus his hype was tremendous going into 2005 with some saying he could hit 40-50 homeruns....neadless too say he didn't.

Look at Corey Patterson, he was being touted as the next 30-30 guy, look how high he was going in drafts a few years ago...where is he now?

All I am saying is that it is a gamble to take a player so high based upon a limited sampling, he may pan out into a great player...maybe he won't. If I'm playing for money, this year is the most important year, so I'm taking proven players early...and gamble only on those I deem to have slipped. B-)


I understand what you are saying, I just think you are wrong.

I strongly encourage ALL fantasy players to banish the words "proven" and "unproven" from their vocabularies. The words are meaningless. By the time any player hits fantasy radar screens, he is going to have 1000+ minor league at bats. And mountains and mountains of evidence have proven that minor league statistics are just as good predictors of future player performance in the major leagues, once they are appropriately adjusted for league, park, player age, etc. as major league statistics are.

So, my advice is completely ignore whether or not a player has "proven" himself for multiple years in the major leagues. Look at the combination of major and minor league stats and you no longer have a "limited sample". You need about 1,500 plate appearances to do a good projection, and you'll have that from the major and minor league statistics.

As for Morneau, there are no guarantees. Here's a list of some of the "proven" players picked in the first 5 rounds in 2005 experts mock drafts: Rolen, Schmidt, Bonds, Beltre, Renteria, Thome, Gagne, Huff, Schilling, Nomar, Blalock, BBoone, JLopez, IRod, KWood, Beltran, Kolb, Foulke, Pavano, Huff. That's 60 picks and a good 1/3rd of them were moderate to total busts among so-called proven players.

If I picked Morneau in a keeper league, I still have a 25 year old hitter who can rake (hell, as "bad" as his year was last year, he was just 6 percent below league average in OPS+, largely because of a fluke drop in his batting average). What do I have if I picked Boone or Schilling?

And, frankly, I have no clue what Patterson is doing in the conversation. The guy had almost 2,000 major league AB before last season. How is he not "proven" by this time? How many years do you have to play to be "proven"?
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby RAmst23 » Sun Nov 27, 2005 5:36 am

Hello biased, how are you today?

1000 minor league stats? What upper tier minor leaguers are you following? Most stud prospects don't get roughly 3 seasons in the minors, they get called up way before that. That's when you talk about proven and unproven. And I may sound old-timerish, but I've seen plenty of extremely highly touted prospects come up and fall on their faces.

And of course some proven guys in the first 5 rounds didn't pan through, guys in every single round didn't pan through. what are you saying? Don't look at any track record in the first 5 rounds and ignore guys like Santana. Abreu, Cabrera, Ortiz, M. Ramirez, Teix, Mariano Rivera, Michael Young, Jeter, Oswalt, Clemens, Soriano, Crawford, Sheffield, Pedro, Peavy, RJ...

Sure guys are busts, but the proven guys still perform. Just picking up rookies is bad policy. Prospects don't pan out constantly, despite good minor league stats.. I think it's just bad advice to say draft young and ignore the proven...
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
RAmst23
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1986
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 6 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Sitting on the steps of Busch Stadium

Postby wkelly91 » Sun Nov 27, 2005 9:03 am

Sizemore ML totals before this year:

G-529
AB-1998
R-332
H-577
2b-97
3b-33
HR-27
RBI-250
BB-261
K-332
SB-96
CS-48
OBP-.375
SLG-.411
OPS-.785
AVE-.289

Now if you use 500 ab's as a season or roughly 1/4 of the above stats he would average (7) home runs and (25) sb's? The SB's are somewhat scewed by early stealing, he only stole 15 and 10 respectively in the two previous seasons. His K/BB ratioo went up as he progressed through the minors.

I'm sure he will be a solid player for years to come, but next year third round stud :-?

Look how Podsednik was hyped after his breakout year in 2003, look what followed in 2004 8-o

Patterson also suffered the hype machine...

2002-71-14-54-18 .2534
2003-49-13-15-16 .2979
2004-91-24-72-32 .2662

Everyone was looking for that huge breakout year in 2005:

2005-47-13-34-15 .2151 :~( OUCH!

The cafe and many other boards go into overtime hyping players....some work out...others don't. Everyone wants to be the next person to say they picked the next Pujos.

Meanwhile they pick rookies and first year players too early ignoring proven players you can trust to put up good numbers therebye hurting their chances to be succussful in the current year. Ram and Agnes you both make good points.
wkelly91
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2796
Joined: 10 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Looking over your shoulder as you type.

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:10 am

RAmst23 wrote:Hello biased, how are you today?

1000 minor league stats? What upper tier minor leaguers are you following? Most stud prospects don't get roughly 3 seasons in the minors, they get called up way before that. That's when you talk about proven and unproven. And I may sound old-timerish, but I've seen plenty of extremely highly touted prospects come up and fall on their faces.

And of course some proven guys in the first 5 rounds didn't pan through, guys in every single round didn't pan through. what are you saying? Don't look at any track record in the first 5 rounds and ignore guys like Santana. Abreu, Cabrera, Ortiz, M. Ramirez, Teix, Mariano Rivera, Michael Young, Jeter, Oswalt, Clemens, Soriano, Crawford, Sheffield, Pedro, Peavy, RJ...

Sure guys are busts, but the proven guys still perform. Just picking up rookies is bad policy. Prospects don't pan out constantly, despite good minor league stats.. I think it's just bad advice to say draft young and ignore the proven...


Nonsense on your first point.
Delmon Young, 1,071 ABs.
Miggy Cabrera, 1,428 ABs
David Wright, 1,419 ABs.
Do I have to go on? You're wrong.

I have seen lots of prospects fall on their face, too. Sometimes that's because people are looking at the wrong stats. Sometimes, that's because people aren't adjusting the stats correctly. Sometimes, it's because top prospects, like proven players sometimes fail.

My point is not that top prospects don't fail. It's that they don't carry any greater risk than "proven players" once you make good use of the data on both. No one is saying only draft rookies, so take that straw man and, well, I'll let you have some creative thoughts about its proper positioning. Here's the point...If you have a young prospect who's minor league and major league stats predict him tohave a certain level of performance, there is no more or less reason to doubt that than for a proven player. Prospect performance, appropriately understood with the right stats, is no more or less risky than proven player performance.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:23 am

wkelly91 wrote:Sizemore ML totals before this year:

G-529
AB-1998
R-332
H-577
2b-97
3b-33
HR-27
RBI-250
BB-261
K-332
SB-96
CS-48
OBP-.375
SLG-.411
OPS-.785
AVE-.289

Now if you use 500 ab's as a season or roughly 1/4 of the above stats he would average (7) home runs and (25) sb's? The SB's are somewhat scewed by early stealing, he only stole 15 and 10 respectively in the two previous seasons. His K/BB ratioo went up as he progressed through the minors.

I'm sure he will be a solid player for years to come, but next year third round stud :-?

Look how Podsednik was hyped after his breakout year in 2003, look what followed in 2004 8-o

Patterson also suffered the hype machine...

2002-71-14-54-18 .2534
2003-49-13-15-16 .2979
2004-91-24-72-32 .2662

Everyone was looking for that huge breakout year in 2005:

2005-47-13-34-15 .2151 :~( OUCH!

The cafe and many other boards go into overtime hyping players....some work out...others don't. Everyone wants to be the next person to say they picked the next Pujos.

Meanwhile they pick rookies and first year players too early ignoring proven players you can trust to put up good numbers therebye hurting their chances to be succussful in the current year. Ram and Agnes you both make good points.


Yes, if you blindly take minor league statistics and try to project major league performance, you get goofy answers. Garbage in, garbage out.

You have to adjust minor league numbers for park effects. Then you have to take into account player age and the level of the league they were playing in. Then, you have to understand how players develop as they age.

Sizemore was putting up slugging percentages of .480 as a very young 19/20 year old. That equates to a major league slugging percentage of .440 at age 20.

A very conservative estimate increases that by about 15 points per year of age:
21: 455; 22: 470; 23: 485 24: 500
Guys that slug like that hit homers. Like most good young players, the 37 doubles and triples he hit in AA are now turning into homers, just as those who projected him in 2003 said.

Neither you nor I KNOW whether any player will pan out next year. But, there is no more reason to doubt Sizemore than any "proven" player.

Look up my name on Podsednik. What you'll find is me calling him a fluke. Why? Because his minor league numbers, appropriately adjusted, screamed FLUKE!

Patterson IS a very good player. Go take a look at Beltran's age 23 season. LOTS of players throw a crapper out there--injury or just playing for Dusty "Proven Player" Baker, can do that.

But, Patterson is an example of a PROVEN PLAYER who tanked. Not an example of a prospect who failed. He had played for 2,000 ABs in the major leagues. That's proven.

And FWIW, I'm the guy that selected Pujols in the first round of his keeper draft after his rookie season, while fantasy mags screamed about sophomore slumps and my fellow managers laughed. Thanks to their generosity and the inability of lots of fantasy players to understand how to use minor league stats, I'm sitting on my second title.

To cap it off...

Minor league stats, properly understood, are just as good at predicting future performance as major leage stats. Neither has any claim to perfection.

A young player who has minor league stats that project to a certain level of performance is no more or less of a risk than a proven player.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby hyacinth » Mon Nov 28, 2005 3:10 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
wkelly91 wrote:And FWIW, I'm the guy that selected Pujols in the first round of his keeper draft after his rookie season, while fantasy mags screamed about sophomore slumps and my fellow managers laughed. Thanks to their generosity and the inability of lots of fantasy players to understand how to use minor league stats, I'm sitting on my second title.


There are a lot of us guys like that re: Pujols. ;-D

As for Sizemore, I think (oddly) everyone's right on this one. It looks like Sizemore's for real, but he could potentially stink next year. Some may say he's worth a 3rd rounder (put me in for a 5th rounder myself), some may say he's not, but either way, he's worth a gamble if you like taking moderate risks. One thing is clear, he's no Vlad yet, but he's probably no Podsednik either.
Image

There are no steroids in baseball. Just players Chuck Norris has breathed on.
hyacinth
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 330
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: all over

Postby Yoda » Mon Nov 28, 2005 3:17 pm

hyacinth wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
wkelly91 wrote:And FWIW, I'm the guy that selected Pujols in the first round of his keeper draft after his rookie season, while fantasy mags screamed about sophomore slumps and my fellow managers laughed. Thanks to their generosity and the inability of lots of fantasy players to understand how to use minor league stats, I'm sitting on my second title.


There are a lot of us guys like that re: Pujols. ;-D

As for Sizemore, I think (oddly) everyone's right on this one. It looks like Sizemore's for real, but he could potentially stink next year. Some may say he's worth a 3rd rounder (put me in for a 5th rounder myself), some may say he's not, but either way, he's worth a gamble if you like taking moderate risks. One thing is clear, he's no Vlad yet, but he's probably no Podsednik either.


Sounds about right. I don't see Sizemore as a superstar yet but the potential is certainly there. The chances of him doing well is greater than not. But my gut tells me he steps back in 06. Has nothing to do with how he has performed but I just don't think he will improve that much in 06.

I think he is worth about 5th or 6th... I won't get him there though.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Oct. 2
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Detroit at Baltimore
(5:37 pm)
Kansas City at LA Angels
(9:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact