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Sizemore this years Morneau?

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Sizemore this years Morneau?

Postby wkelly91 » Sat Nov 26, 2005 8:21 am

Sizemore has been picked at 31st in two mocks I've found, and Yahoo has him rated at 46th.

Would you spend your 3rd round draft on him? :-?

I wouldn't touch him that early :-o
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:40 am

A little risky, but he's the kind of player you want to take a risk on. At age 23 his ten most comparable players averaged about 15 points above league average OPS+, which would be about .850 for the AL next year.

At the top end, three of his comps (Scott Rolen, Duke Snider, and Ellis Valentine), averaged about 40-50% above league average, which would put him about 1.000 in OPS. That's first round material.

Morneau shows the downside. Notice that his big drop was caused by a big drop in BA...the same thing happened to a few of Sizemore's comps, including Carlos Beltran and Wille Davis. That's often just some unlucky breaks. If you look at these guys, that's just a bump in the road,and they often make big leaps in future years.

So, in a one year league, I think that's a little early. In a keeper league, I think he's worth the risk. The top end (about a 20-30% chance of happening) is a Hall of Famer. The midpoint is a guy who posts OPS in the 850-950 most years from now until age 30 or so.
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Re: Sizemore this years Morneau?

Postby San D » Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:41 am

wkelly91 wrote:Sizemore has been picked at 31st in two mocks I've found, and Yahoo has him rated at 46th.

Would you spend your 3rd round draft on him? :-?

I wouldn't touch him that early :-o


Me neither, although I'd consider him a round or two later. As for being next year's Morneau, his minor league stats never showed this power, but at his young age, I think he just grew into his body and his power is legit. His average and SB totals are also legit. I've read that he's an intense competitor, and as long as I keep reading reports like that, I'd bet against a Morneau-like fade.
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Sizemore

Postby Dan Charette » Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:24 pm

I think Sizemore is great. He got better as the year went on. There's not too many real good center fielders. If your league has LF, CF, and RF as opposed to just OF, then his value goes up more.
Potential 5 category player.

In defence of Morneau. Just wanted to add that Morneau had various ailments and injuries during the offseason last year.
He wasn't well for spring training. This took it's toll on his season. I think he can bounce back to .275 30 hrs and 90 rbi,s

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Postby lbbaseball14 » Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:58 pm

Sizemore is a very very solid player and I would definetely consider taking him as early as 3rd or 4th round. I really like what Cleveland is doing with their team... its gotta be exciting to be an Indians fan right about now when you have V-Mart, Hafner, Sizemore, Peralta, and Crisp. They're not too far now and I think Sizemore will put up very solid numbers with those guys hitting behind him.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Sat Nov 26, 2005 1:15 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:A little risky, but he's the kind of player you want to take a risk on. At age 23 his ten most comparable players averaged about 15 points above league average OPS+, which would be about .850 for the AL next year.

At the top end, three of his comps (Scott Rolen, Duke Snider, and Ellis Valentine), averaged about 40-50% above league average, which would put him about 1.000 in OPS. That's first round material.

Morneau shows the downside. Notice that his big drop was caused by a big drop in BA...the same thing happened to a few of Sizemore's comps, including Carlos Beltran and Wille Davis. That's often just some unlucky breaks. If you look at these guys, that's just a bump in the road,and they often make big leaps in future years.

So, in a one year league, I think that's a little early. In a keeper league, I think he's worth the risk. The top end (about a 20-30% chance of happening) is a Hall of Famer. The midpoint is a guy who posts OPS in the 850-950 most years from now until age 30 or so.
Let's not forget the Morneau had good minor league numbers and was injured for most of the season. Besides that, Sizemore is in a much better lineup. I expect him to continue to have great numbers across the board.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Nov 26, 2005 1:26 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:Let's not forget the Morneau had good minor league numbers and was injured for most of the season. Besides that, Sizemore is in a much better lineup. I expect him to continue to have great numbers across the board.


Agree with that and with the comment about CF. Good to great young player on a young, stacked line-up, in a position where it can be tough to get offense. That's the kind of player I'd reather be a round early on than a round late.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Sat Nov 26, 2005 2:30 pm

If he's going earlier than the 5th round, yes.
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Postby RAmst23 » Sat Nov 26, 2005 2:59 pm

3rd round for this guy?? I think Sizemore is a terrific player, loved having him on a couple teams last year. Performs solidly in three cats (BAVG, HRs, RBIs) above average at SB and great at Runs. Is Sizemore a 5 category guy? Sort of. He sure doesn't hurt you in any of the categories, but he doesn't really do anything above the average in the mentioned HR, RBI, and BA block. You're mainly drafting Sizemore for the help to SBs and Runs, so if you have SB covered by some other positions, then wait and see if he's available somewhere past the 5th.

On another note, Sizemore may be due for a drop in numbers. In 640 ABs last year, he walked 52 times and SO 132. Will his BA drop as pitchers start having him chase stuff out of the zone more? Also, while he had 22 SBs, he was CS 10 times. Just notes wanted to pass along!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Nov 26, 2005 3:15 pm

RAmst23 wrote:3rd round for this guy?? I think Sizemore is a terrific player, loved having him on a couple teams last year. Performs solidly in three cats (BAVG, HRs, RBIs) above average at SB and great at Runs. Is Sizemore a 5 category guy? Sort of. He sure doesn't hurt you in any of the categories, but he doesn't really do anything above the average in the mentioned HR, RBI, and BA block. You're mainly drafting Sizemore for the help to SBs and Runs, so if you have SB covered by some other positions, then wait and see if he's available somewhere past the 5th.

On another note, Sizemore may be due for a drop in numbers. In 640 ABs last year, he walked 52 times and SO 132. Will his BA drop as pitchers start having him chase stuff out of the zone more? Also, while he had 22 SBs, he was CS 10 times. Just notes wanted to pass along!


Guys that help you in all 5 cats are more valuable than you make out. The best comparison is not to "the average", but to a replacement player. And the issue is not how he did last year, but what you can expect next year.

Let's look at the K/BB ratio

April-May: 36/9 or 4K for every BB
June-Oct.: 94/43 or 2.2K for every BB
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