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Postby Comrade Antelope » Tue Nov 22, 2005 4:50 pm

I like him for 20HR 15 SB, maybe 100runs and 75 rbi, depending on where he is in the lineup. The skills that made people predict 30/30 out of him a few years ago are still there and he doesnt have a fat ML contract yet, so I think he'll still be motivated to perfrorm at a high level. Ill take him over Renteria anyday...
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Nov 22, 2005 7:00 pm

No way to know. The same sort of things were being said about Carlos Guillen after the 04 season. And that did not work out to well.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Tue Nov 22, 2005 7:59 pm

stumpak wrote:You can "say" whatever you want about Great America, but that won't change the empirical data--according to park factor it is the #3 hitter's park inthe NL trailing only Colorado and Philly.


where are you getting that from?

according to the baseball reference park factor, the Great American Ballpark isn't the 3rd best hitter's park in the NL.

here is the list and the PF in the NL on a 3 year average (100 is neutral, above it favours hitters, below it favour pitchers):

COL - 115
ARZ - 106
PHI - 104.5 (2 years average)
CHC - 102
HOU - 100.6
ATL - 100.3
SF - 100
CIN - 99.3
MIL - 99
NYM - 99
PIT - 98.6
STL - 98.3
FLA - 94.3
LOS - 94.3
WAS - 93 (1 year)
SD - 91
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Nov 22, 2005 8:01 pm

Guillen is 30. Lopez is 25.

I don't think anybody expected Guillen to duplicate his 2004 (or at least they should not have), but 320/368/434/803 ain't bad. Yeah, he was injured a lot, but his numbers were dencet when he played.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:37 am

I would rank him higher than Cantu.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:39 am

kimchi_chigae wrote:
stumpak wrote:You can "say" whatever you want about Great America, but that won't change the empirical data--according to park factor it is the #3 hitter's park inthe NL trailing only Colorado and Philly.


where are you getting that from?

according to the baseball reference park factor, the Great American Ballpark isn't the 3rd best hitter's park in the NL.

here is the list and the PF in the NL on a 3 year average (100 is neutral, above it favours hitters, below it favour pitchers):

COL - 115
ARZ - 106
PHI - 104.5 (2 years average)
CHC - 102
HOU - 100.6
ATL - 100.3
SF - 100
CIN - 99.3
MIL - 99
NYM - 99
PIT - 98.6
STL - 98.3
FLA - 94.3
LOS - 94.3
WAS - 93 (1 year)
SD - 91


KC, no way those numbers are right.
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Postby RynMan » Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:43 am

See this is what boggles me about Park Factors. If the dimensions don't change, and there are no surrounding structural changes.....how can a park become easier or better to hit in from one year to the next? I'm just not sure I put alot into the fact that park factors vary...
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Postby wrveres » Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:47 am

RynMan wrote:See this is what boggles me about Park Factors. If the dimensions don't change, and there are no surrounding structural changes.....how can a park become easier or better to hit in from one year to the next? I'm just not sure I put alot into the fact that park factors vary...


I have never put much into them either.
I have always just glanced them over, but that one stands out as a shocker to me. Cincinatti was one of the highest scoring teams in the NL last season. I may be wrong but I think they led the league in home OPS too. :-o
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:09 pm

First of all, park factors, like all baseball stats are subject to random variation. Why should we be any more surprised by park factor fluctuation than by fluctuation in player batting averages?

Second, ballpark features change all the time, even when dimensions don't change. Vary the amount ot foul territory, put up a new scoreboard, change an entranceway and you can change the park factor.

Third, everybody seems to forget that a key variable changes ever year. WEATHER. Temperature, humidity, winds, pressure all vary and have an impact on the game.

Fourth, remember that park factors are always relative to the rest of the parks. Your park may stay the same, but if every other team is building a park that boosts offense, then your park may move from being a hitting park (with hitting stats above the mean) to a pitching park (with hitting stats below the mean).

Fifth, there's not one park factor for a stadium. A stadium affects different measures of offense differently. GABP is a great example, because it's like Camden Yards.

Both are good HR parks.
Neither is a good offensive park, because they allow fewer doubles, triples, and singles.

Good HR park does not = good offensive park

Gor more on GABP and park factors,,,,

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... factoring/

http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/theho ... lparks.php

http://www.sportfanatics.net/Baseball/F ... istics.htm

http://philliesblog.blogspot.com/2004/1 ... isdom.html

Here's a park effect crib sheet based on those published in the "Bill James Handbook 2005":

AL Best Offensive Parks: The Ballpark in Arlington, Fenway Park, SkyDome.

AL Best Pitching Parks: Safeco, Tropicana, Jacobs Fields, Yankee Stadium.

NL Best Hitting Parks: Coors Field, Bank One Ballpark, Wrigley Field, Citizen's Bank Park.

NL Best Pitching Parks: PETCO Park, Great American Ball Park, Dodger Stadium.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Wed Nov 23, 2005 2:16 pm

wrveres wrote:KC, no way those numbers are right.
Are you sure


i was sure, but it's quite possible that i'm wrong. :-b

i need some help with this...i think i'm interpreting it wrong.

i used to go to Espn to look at park factors ESPN PF, but their stats seem to a bit messed up. in fact i get a different number every time i refresh the page. 8-o it usually shows Jacobs Field as being the #1 hitter's park in the MLB, followed by Coors, 05 stats. They show CIN in the middle of the pack around .992, but i've also seen it as the 3rd worst ballpark for hitters at .887. :-o i decided to check.

Espn uses the following formula:

PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

by my calculations, that would give CIN something like 1.15, which i think would be correct, however, 1.15 would be only for 2005, not the 3 years average. in 04, CIN scored a lot more runs away and was also scored more on away from the Great American Ballpark, using the same formula it gives CIN 0.84 for the 2004 season. 8-o it's not uncommon to see shifts like this from year to year in the park factor and because the Great American Ballpark is a relatively new park, only 3 years, might not be enough to categorize it as a hitter's ballpark or as one that favours the pitchers.

baseball-reference.com uses a different formula. Park Factor Formula and according to them CIN in 05 was a hitter's park, 04 it was a pitcher's park and 03, when the new ballpark opened, it was neutral, scoring 100. CIN PF

what i did with those numbers was take the 3 years of each team in the NL and calculate their averages.
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