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Help Me Quantify Luck in H2H, Points Leagues

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Postby StlSluggers » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:09 pm

Are you skeptical that the variance should be lower or higher?
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Postby Tavish » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:28 pm

StlSluggers wrote:Are you skeptical that the variance should be lower or higher?


It completely depends on how many teams there are in the league. A league with 10 teams the schedule's role is 40% (2 of 5 games). In a league with 20 teams the schedule's role is 20% (2 of 10 games). Again this isn't accounting for the chance of the highest scorer playing the lowest scorer.

I'm not skeptical about whether the variance is too high or too low, I'm skeptical that there is a decent way to define the study's results.
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Postby StlSluggers » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:52 pm

Tavish wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:Are you skeptical that the variance should be lower or higher?


It completely depends on how many teams there are in the league. A league with 10 teams the schedule's role is 40% (2 of 5 games). In a league with 20 teams the schedule's role is 20% (2 of 10 games). Again this isn't accounting for the chance of the highest scorer playing the lowest scorer.

I'm not skeptical about whether the variance is too high or too low, I'm skeptical that there is a decent way to define the study's results.

I guess to answer that I will have to explain how the whole thing works. It's not what you are thinking. You are looking at this problem with no data, or from a predictory standpoint. I am looking at it with data, or from a descriptive standpoint. I am not looking to say what could happen. I will be saying what did happen.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:09 pm

StlSluggers wrote:I guess to answer that I will have to explain how the whole thing works. It's not what you are thinking. You are looking at this problem with no data, or from a predictory standpoint. I am looking at it with data, or from a descriptive standpoint. I am not looking to say what could happen. I will be saying what did happen.


I'll apologize upfront, my mind is stuck in a single mode for some reason tonight. I'm sure that I am being very myopic about the whole thing, but for some reason I'm having a problem wrapping my brain around the difference between what I'm talking about and what you are talking about.

The only time schedule does not play a role in a game is when you are the highest or lowest scoring team. In every other situation it was your scheduling "luck" that allowed you to avoid playing the team which was the highest/lowest scoring team.
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Postby StlSluggers » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:21 pm

I suck at explaining stuff.

Tavish wrote:In every other situation it was your scheduling "luck" that allowed you to avoid playing the team which was the highest/lowest scoring team.

Bingo! You just hit the nail on the head. That is exactly what I'm measuring but to a more detailed degree. I sent you a PM with the nitty-gritty.
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:46 pm

My one reply didn't pan out, so I'm stuck with the 5 leagues I have access to personally. So far, here's the result:

n=70
Mean=7.403%
StDev=9.228% ( :-o )

I'd like to get plenty of additional data. I think I could get that deviation down quite a bit. If I had to run with that right now, the article would say:

Data gathered indicates that H2H scheduling has an average impact of +/-7.403% on a team's expected winning percentage. However, there is a 95% chance that the real average lies as far away +/-25.859%.

Most people will read that and go, "Okay. Thanks for telling me nothing."
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:06 pm

I'd love to help you out if I could, but I don't play H2H or points leagues. :-/ I'm still very interested in the results you come up with though if that gives you any motivation to keep at it. :-D
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Postby StlSluggers » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:14 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:I'd love to help you out if I could, but I don't play H2H or points leagues. :-/ I'm still very interested in the results you come up with though if that gives you any motivation to keep at it. :-D

I don't know if that actually is giving me the motivation, but at this moment, I am e-mailing any site I come across that does H2H, point scoring. I've sent e-mails to fantasytimesports.com, golf.com (yeah, they have their own FBB!?!), keeperfantasyleagues.com, and gamedayritual.com.

I'm still looking for others... :-°
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