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Expected Batting Average formulae

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Expected Batting Average formulae

Postby jay » Fri Jun 20, 2003 12:33 am

Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?
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Re: Expected Batting Average formulae

Postby wrveres » Fri Jun 20, 2003 2:34 am

jay wrote:Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?


I have never heard of the stat EBA. But I would imagine it would be pretty close to his career BA. Move to Col. jump 20pts. Move to NYM lose 40pts. Thats my guess.
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Re: Expected Batting Average formulae

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Jun 21, 2003 4:12 am

jay wrote:Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?


Its in Ron Shandlers BB Forecaster.

A hitters batting average as calculated by multiplying the percentage of balls put in play CT (contact rate), by the chance that a ball in play falls for a hit. The likelihood that a ball in play falls for a hit is a product of the speed of the ball and distance it is hit (PX), and the speed of the batter (SX).

AL CT% x [(.000077 x PX) + (.00005 x SX) + .245]
NL 65 12 .252
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Re: Expected Batting Average formulae

Postby wrveres » Sat Jun 21, 2003 4:32 am

HOOTIE wrote:
jay wrote:Does anyone have any formula for Expected batting average? or a site?


Its in Ron Shandlers BB Forecaster.

A hitters batting average as calculated by multiplying the percentage of balls put in play CT (contact rate), by the chance that a ball in play falls for a hit. The likelihood that a ball in play falls for a hit is a product of the speed of the ball and distance it is hit (PX), and the speed of the batter (SX).

AL CT% x [(.000077 x PX) + (.00005 x SX) + .245]
NL 65 12 .252



ok Hootie ... you got me ..What?
Please explain ....
Where are they getting the speed of the ball? is it from the pitcher to batter? or is it after the batter hits it. And player speed to first is not a commonly kept stat. Neither is distance.
I understand the principal but ... but I still don't get it.

And how can the NL be ahead of the AL with a DH
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Jun 21, 2003 3:44 pm

Players speed (SX), is taken from a Bill James concept that measures the various elements that compromise a runners speed skills.

1. Stolen base efficiency
2. Stolen base frequency
3. Triples rating
4. Runs scored as a percentage of times on base.

Each one comes with a math equation formula.


Roughly speaking, the likelihood of a hit depends on

(1) the speed of the ball (so that it can elude the fielders),
(2) the distance of the ball (so that it is a long way from 1st base),
(3) the speed of the batter (so he can out run the throw).
The (3) is established by James formula above in SX.
(1) and (2) are established in PX. This is a weighted ratio of doubles, triples, and hrs per ab.
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