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The importance of your "gut" in poker...

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Postby bronxxbomber » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:10 am

Art Vandelay wrote:That's an impossible hand to lay down, especially playing online. With only two possible hands better than yours after the flop you practically have to make that call.

I only use my gut in live games if I think I've got a read on someone. Online I only use my gut as a beer receptacle.


agree with this wholeheartedly.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:15 am

pokerplaya wrote:
bronxxbomber wrote:
daullaz wrote:Now THAT's a bad beat, losing with Jacks full. But not much you could do about that one. You were destined to lose that hand apparently. When the 10 hit I would have assumed the guy had made a straight, so you were lookin' pretty good. Don't beat yourself up over this one.


Not a bad beat. He actually got beat by a better hand. I try to limit my gut calls in games personally because I don't have that stu unger, johnny chan, doyle bronson skill. I try to base my hands on pot odds and what not. That was just a tough hand and you have to keep playing.


I see what you're saying, but thinka bout it...you always get beat by better hands. ;-) Preflop I'm 70/30 to win, and while it might not be a traditional "bad beat" as the term is generally used, it is definitely a bad way to get beat.
hey, i know what you mean, but after you play awhile, you will lose to these hands. you just got to learn how to play after the flop because that's where you make money.


exactly what i mean. you can't expect to win that every time, but you can expect to win at least 60-70% of the time against those cards. I think you made a good play, but you were just unlucky there.
Last edited by bronxxbomber on Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby pokerplaya » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:18 am

bronxxbomber wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:
bronxxbomber wrote:
daullaz wrote:Now THAT's a bad beat, losing with Jacks full. But not much you could do about that one. You were destined to lose that hand apparently. When the 10 hit I would have assumed the guy had made a straight, so you were lookin' pretty good. Don't beat yourself up over this one.


Not a bad beat. He actually got beat by a better hand. I try to limit my gut calls in games personally because I don't have that stu unger, johnny chan, doyle bronson skill. I try to base my hands on pot odds and what not. That was just a tough hand and you have to keep playing.


I see what you're saying, but thinka bout it...you always get beat by better hands. ;-) Preflop I'm 70/30 to win, and while it might not be a traditional "bad beat" as the term is generally used, it is definitely a bad way to get beat.
hey, i know what you mean, but after you play awhile, you will lose to these hands. you just got to learn how to play after the flop because that's where you make money.


Yeah I realize, I've been playing a while. I'm no expert, but I do well enough. My question was really if there was any possible way to fold that hand - I was so sure he had AJ, but there was no way I was getting away from that hand. I could have been dead wrong and he could have had AK and I would have been a moron to fold. Way of the game, I suppose.
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Re: The importance of your "gut" in poker...

Postby Madison » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:34 am

pokerplaya wrote:Now, I think your gut is really important. A "sixth sense" as some have called it. I played this hand earlier, and lost about 15 bucks on it, though I don't know if I could have played it any differently even though my gut told me to get away from it.


"Gut" is much more important playing live, than it is online.

Pokerplaya wrote:Twenty-five dollar buy in PL Hold Em. The entire table has limped in, and I am looking at JJ as the final player to act. I push it to the pot limit, around two dollars, looking to thin the field quite a bit. It works, 3 of us see a flop.


The entire table? And the pot was only $2? What on Earth were the blinds? 10 cents/20 cents? Way too small of blinds to be playing on, if that's the case.

Pushing the action with only J/J is dangerous as pocket jacks are pretty, but also basically worthless at a full table unless you hit a jack on the flop (1 in 8.5), or you get a miracle flop of all tiny cards (not likely).

Not surprising someone called a pot sized bet with only A/J (was it at least suited, or did he read you correctly as an overaggressive player?), since it seems the blinds were tiny which means the players are not the sharpest.

Pokerplaya wrote:Flop comes down AAJ. I flopped the full house. First guy to act bets minimum, begging for a call. Next guy calls, as do I. Turn is a 10. First guy bets real low again, next guy calls, I raise. I'm essentially then put all in by the first guy, the guy in the middle instantly folds and I'm left with a decision....call or fold?

How do I fold Jacks full here? I really felt like he had AJ, but I couldn't get myself to release it. So I call, lose most of my stack (he has less than I do) when he flips up AJ like I figured. So could anyone release Jacks full in that situation?

As I type this, I just got my KK cracked. Back to bad beat land... :-[


I'd have put him on A/10 (which means I lose) and just called his bet on the turn. Raising when you've got the ass end of a boat (paired overcards on the board means you could have the ass end of the boat) isn't exactly the smartest play. Here's the thinking behind it. If he's bluffing, you'll win a decent pot at the end, however, if he's got it, you lose a big pot. If he's got an ace, he's not laying it down for any amount of money in that spot, so there's no point in trying to bet him out of the pot because it won't work. Probably could have saved yourself a few bucks by just calling him down, and that would have been the smartest, and most logical play you could have made.

Folding isn't an option since I see people do the same thing with A/2 in a spot like that all day long. Calling is a must unless you've got one heck of a read on the guy, or if your notes (you do use that feature, right?) let you know he's a very solid player, which is the only way I'd fold it.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:43 am

Irish wrote:Same type hand that guy lost with during the FIRST HAND of the world series of poker against Farha this year.

He had pocket 10's, Farha had A 10, flop came A A 10.

The only reason to ever fold that is when you are positive the guy has it and it would knock you out of the tourney if you called.

Other then that, it's almost impossible to lay it down.


You mean Oliver Hudson, the actor and brother of Kate Hudson...he would now like to be known as "that guy." ;-)

Can't lay that down, bro...that is a monster hand that pros would probably not give away. Just got beat by a better hand (I too don't call that a "bad beat" - I thought that was when you were the heavy favorite and the other dude pulls 2 runners or some miracle monster hand on you).
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Postby Madison » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:50 am

Mercer Boy wrote:
Irish wrote:Same type hand that guy lost with during the FIRST HAND of the world series of poker against Farha this year.

He had pocket 10's, Farha had A 10, flop came A A 10.

The only reason to ever fold that is when you are positive the guy has it and it would knock you out of the tourney if you called.

Other then that, it's almost impossible to lay it down.


You mean Oliver Hudson, the actor and brother of Kate Hudson...he would now like to be known as "that guy." ;-)


Poor schmuck. I remember that, and feel sorry for Hudson. Rough way to go out. 90 seconds flat. Ouch. !+)

Mercer Boy wrote:Can't lay that down, bro...that is a monster hand that pros would probably not give away. Just got beat by a better hand (I too don't call that a "bad beat" - I thought that was when you were the heavy favorite and the other dude pulls 2 runners or some miracle monster hand on you).


Actually, it is a bad beat since the guy with the ace also had a jack. Pokerplaya was right about 69% to win the hand preflop, so the other guy only had around a 31% chance to win. That's a bad beat in my book. Now had the other guy had A/K or A/Q, then it's basically a coinflip with Pokerplaya holding about a 55% shot of winning. Then it's not really a bad beat.
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Postby pokerplaya » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:53 am

I reraised him the few dollars he had left. All the money was going into the pot one way or the other.

The blinds were .10/.25. It was AJ offsuit. My experience (at this particular table) was that most players like to see the flop for a quarter, but when subjected to a raise, fold.

I wasn't suprised to be called down with an AJ either. In fact, that's really what I felt he had. I had some notes on the player, but he hadn't been there very long. I'm not whining about losing the hand, just asking about going with the "gut." Very good points about the difference between live and online games. Most likely, I just happened to guess that this guy had AJ. Maybe I was simply paranoid.

I do think my JJ was the right move, because of how I felt the table was acting. A lot of limpers, but great hesitance to call a big preflop raise. A raise to .75 cents would normally knock out all but 1 or two players (as it should be) but these guys all loved to see cheap flops.
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Postby Madison » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:10 am

pokerplaya wrote:I reraised him the few dollars he had left. All the money was going into the pot one way or the other.


In your original post, you said he put you all in........Those kinds of details make a difference when analyzing a hand. ;-)

Pokerplaya wrote:The blinds were .10/.25. It was AJ offsuit. My experience (at this particular table) was that most players like to see the flop for a quarter, but when subjected to a raise, fold.


Most players at those levels will play any two cards for just the cost of the blinds. Time to move up to at least .25/.50 and more like .50/1 or 1/2.

Pokerplaya wrote:I wasn't suprised to be called down with an AJ either. In fact, that's really what I felt he had. I had some notes on the player, but he hadn't been there very long. I'm not whining about losing the hand, just asking about going with the "gut." Very good points about the difference between live and online games. Most likely, I just happened to guess that this guy had AJ. Maybe I was simply paranoid.


I know you're not whining. No worries about that. :-)

I also think you were just being paranoid. There are quite a few hands he could have had that was worth all his money to him on the turn. 10/10, K/Q, A/X......Really nothing to suggest he flopped the nuts other than the small bet he led with on the flop and turn, but even then, that's usually just a "feeler" bet to see if they can take down the pot right there, or make it a cheap chase for him if he was trying to hit a 4th card for the straight or chasing a flush.

Pokerplaya wrote:I do think my JJ was the right move, because of how I felt the table was acting. A lot of limpers, but great hesitance to call a big preflop raise. A raise to .75 cents would normally knock out all but 1 or two players (as it should be) but these guys all loved to see cheap flops.


The only time raising with just J/J preflop is a good idea, is if you're shorthanded (it's much more powerful in a shorthanded game than it is at a full table), in a tournament to buy blinds, or if you're willing to lay it down when overcards flop (which is most of the time).

I know quite a few poker players, and J/J is the hand the most money is lost with. Not powerful enough to play aggressively and just too pretty to throw away when the overs flop. Took me awhile to learn to limp with jacks at ring games. Really wish I had learned it sooner though. :-P

Again note though, I'd have stayed in the hand too, so not saying you should have folded. ;-)
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Postby Baseballer02 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:14 am

Madison wrote: Took me awhile to learn to limp with jacks at ring games. Really wish I had learned it sooner though. :-P


You limp jacks regardless of your position and players you're up against? That seems a bit much. :-?
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Postby Madison » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:19 am

Baseballer02 wrote:
Madison wrote: Took me awhile to learn to limp with jacks at ring games. Really wish I had learned it sooner though. :-P


You limp jacks regardless of your position and players you're up against? That seems a bit much. :-?


Full table, everyone called the blinds? Yep, I limp with Jacks. Only real chance I have to win is to spike a jack on the flop (1 in 8.5) and I'm not going to get the pot odds on a raise. Might as well be raising with ducks if you're going to raise with just jacks at a full ring game. Same odds of flopping your set.

As to tourneys and shorthanded, that's a whole different situation though. Read what you quoted, "at ring games" being the optimal thing to notice. ;-)
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