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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:56 pm

Wow, I leave for a few hours and this turns into who is the best RP FA. If I could have one of the available FA RP for next year it would be Hoffman. But here are the reported demands of Hoffman and Wagner.
Hoffman - 3 years $25-$27 mil
Wagner - 3 years $27-$30 mil
Ryan will mostly likely get around $5 mil a season for 3-5 years. He is the best value if I'm looking for a FA RP.

That said the Padres are not looking for a FA RP. Everything that I have read says they have enough in the budget to sign Hoffman or Giles not both. So which one will it be?
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:36 pm

wrveres wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
Yoda wrote:This is a worthless argument. I can't possible argue with people who would rather take Wagner and Ryan over Hoffman.


Hoffman at 38, versus Wagner now. Wagner is better. You would rather have a 3 era guy to a 1.5 era guy? I know, you only care about saves, which is a very misleading stat. But if we check the last 3, 4, or 5 years, Wagner has more. I know Hoffman missed 03, but people are saying Wagner is brittle, while Hoffman is out there every day. The brittle Wagner throws 75,77 innings, to Hoffmans 55-60. Wagner crushed Hoffman this yeat in win shares, as in era, K/9, avg against, etc. But Hoffman at THIS point in time is better?


what are you talking about Hootie ?

Hoffman had more saves than Wagner this year ... Last year ... and every single year that the two have been closers ... what a joke.

You pick the one year that Hoffman misses a season and turn around and say that Wagner has more saves .. ?
Talk about using using selective stats ..


how about this

in their entire careers ... Billy Injured Wagner has never saved more games than Trevor Hoffman in ANY given season ... Not one.

as matter of fact Billy has only one season where he saved more than 40 games. Trevor did that feat this year, and last year .. as a matter of fact, it is a feat he has completed 7 times in his career.

:-t :-t :-t

this arguement is getting real old ..
I realize that most of you don't know what goes on West of the Misssippi, but Billy Wagner is, was, and will never be the closer Hoffman is


No one is saying Wagner career wise is better, or will be. We are comparing both guys as of right now. Wagner is coming off the FAR better season. No? You said Wagner is brittle. He pitches more innings then Hoffman per year.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:45 pm

wrveres wrote:yes and no ..

Yes, because it is time to pay Hoffman for his career services ..

NO, because using the stats that matter FOR closers, Sv's and SV% ... Hoffman was clearly the better closer over the last two seasons.


We have ben through save % before and saves. So much gaps in getting them, or blowing them. 1/2/or 3 run leads, amount of outs recorded per game, coming in with runners on.

Last 2 years win shares
Wagner 24
Hoffman 17

Saves or save % doesn't account for tie games, or pitching down a run. Hoffman had 4 losses this year where he didn't get a BS, because all 4 games were tied when he entered.
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Nov 01, 2005 10:41 pm

Ryan will mostly likely get around $5 mil a season for 3-5 years. He is the best value if I'm looking for a FA RP.

Man, i hope ATL steps in and offers a deal along the lines of $20 mil over 4 years. that'd be frickin sweet.
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Postby bigh0rt » Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:34 am

wrveres wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Wrveres, from reading your argument, it looks like you're defending Hoffman's career. Wagner is nowhere near the closer Hoffman is for his career. I just feel that Wagner is the better pitcher right now, everything considered.

Career-wise, it's as you said. Wagner isn't in Hoffman's class.


yes and no ..

Yes, because it is time to pay Hoffman for his career services ..

NO, because using the stats that matter FOR closers, Sv's and SV% ... Hoffman was clearly the better closer over the last two seasons.


I've had it basically up to here with having SV and SV% shoved down my throat every single time this discussion comes about. It's like something you guys hang onto for dear life, regardless of anything on the contrary that is brought to the table (of which, there is plenty, that has been outlined in this thread among several others, previously).

If I had the choice of signing Billy Wagner or Trevor Hoffman, I'd sign Wagner. Period. No ifs, ands, or buts.

Saves, for the most part, are a lot like Runs Batted In. Put a guy in the situation enough times, and well, matematics tells me that chances are he'll end up on the top end of the Saves total. Check it out, generally the guys with the most Saves in any given season are the ones who are given the most opportunities. Sounds a bit obvious, but I think it goes overlooked far too often.

As for Save%, it's possibly an even less accurate stat than total Saves, if you can believe that. So many outlying factors come into play (e.g. # Run leads, # of outs made, # of runners on), some of which the Closer has exactly zip control over. Exactly, nada.

Let's also take into account that Save % does not take into account how a guy throws in non-save situations (and say whatever you want about being a Closer for the sole purpose of getting Saves; every time he's on the hill, his numbers count the same), where, say, a Closer comes into a tied ballgame, gets shelled, and doesn't get credited for a blown save. These are numbers that Save% completely ignores.

So I beg you, sip on Trevor's Kool-Aid ever so slightly less. He's a very good Closer. The best Closer of all-time (as I've heard him referred to far too many times) or best closer currently (again, ditto), he simply isn't. Furthermore, I'm not even entirely sold on him being a Hall of Fame Player (gasp!), if for no other reason than the sheer miniscule number of Relief Pitchers who actually make it in (off the top of my head, I can't name anyone other than Eck, Fingers, and Smith, and I'm not even entirely sure all 3 are in), and in my mind, Hoffman just doesn't make the cut to sit with those guys the way a Rivera does (and yes, I know we've had this discussion before. I don't mean to drum it up again, as I'll clearly not be convinced otherwise, nor will our West Coast boys).

Then again, we'll always have Saves and Save %...

...
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Postby blankman » Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:32 am

bigh0rt wrote:
wrveres wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Wrveres, from reading your argument, it looks like you're defending Hoffman's career. Wagner is nowhere near the closer Hoffman is for his career. I just feel that Wagner is the better pitcher right now, everything considered.

Career-wise, it's as you said. Wagner isn't in Hoffman's class.


yes and no ..

Yes, because it is time to pay Hoffman for his career services ..

NO, because using the stats that matter FOR closers, Sv's and SV% ... Hoffman was clearly the better closer over the last two seasons.


I've had it basically up to here with having SV and SV% shoved down my throat every single time this discussion comes about. It's like something you guys hang onto for dear life, regardless of anything on the contrary that is brought to the table (of which, there is plenty, that has been outlined in this thread among several others, previously).

If I had the choice of signing Billy Wagner or Trevor Hoffman, I'd sign Wagner. Period. No ifs, ands, or buts.

Saves, for the most part, are a lot like Runs Batted In. Put a guy in the situation enough times, and well, matematics tells me that chances are he'll end up on the top end of the Saves total. Check it out, generally the guys with the most Saves in any given season are the ones who are given the most opportunities. Sounds a bit obvious, but I think it goes overlooked far too often.

As for Save%, it's possibly an even less accurate stat than total Saves, if you can believe that. So many outlying factors come into play (e.g. # Run leads, # of outs made, # of runners on), some of which the Closer has exactly zip control over. Exactly, nada.

Let's also take into account that Save % does not take into account how a guy throws in non-save situations (and say whatever you want about being a Closer for the sole purpose of getting Saves; every time he's on the hill, his numbers count the same), where, say, a Closer comes into a tied ballgame, gets shelled, and doesn't get credited for a blown save. These are numbers that Save% completely ignores.

So I beg you, sip on Trevor's Kool-Aid ever so slightly less. He's a very good Closer. The best Closer of all-time (as I've heard him referred to far too many times) or best closer currently (again, ditto), he simply isn't. Furthermore, I'm not even entirely sold on him being a Hall of Fame Player (gasp!), if for no other reason than the sheer miniscule number of Relief Pitchers who actually make it in (off the top of my head, I can't name anyone other than Eck, Fingers, and Smith, and I'm not even entirely sure all 3 are in), and in my mind, Hoffman just doesn't make the cut to sit with those guys the way a Rivera does (and yes, I know we've had this discussion before. I don't mean to drum it up again, as I'll clearly not be convinced otherwise, nor will our West Coast boys).

Then again, we'll always have Saves and Save %...

...


Right on.

Looks like we actually have something else in common :-°
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Postby bronxxbomber » Wed Nov 02, 2005 2:59 am

I agree with the people who say wagner and ryan (he's actually 29) are better pitchers right now. Wagner and Ryan are just more dominating pitchers and that's what managers and fans like to see from closers. When closers can get that k it's exciting. Aside from that, it can bail pitchers out of trouble. And with Hoffman giving up more hits lately and getting less k's it'll be harder from him to bail himself out. One thing I don't understand is that Hoffman could be considered a better pitcher than Wagner. Put the saves aside. Who's been more dominant over their career? It's Wagner.

Wagner

IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
630.1 409 182 168 59 217 840 2.40 0.99 .183


Hoffman

IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
822.1 627 280 252 74 237 915 2.76 1.05 .208

The Padres should sign Hoffman no matter what though because it sounds like he's fan favorite, but there's no way I'd take him over Wagner or Ryan.
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Postby stevethumb » Wed Nov 02, 2005 12:24 pm

all i can add to this debate is IF the padres have a budget problem then i would not spend $25m on a guy who pitches 58 innings...IF it is strictly a budget question i feel that bgiles is the better value for the team...wouldn't the astros be better off if jbagwell retired and didnt try to collect his $17m next year as a part time crippled first baseman ? and it's possible that in 3 years padre fans would be regretting the 9-10m that they owe an ineffective 41 yo pitcher..it's possible
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Postby DK » Wed Nov 02, 2005 1:32 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:I agree with the people who say wagner and ryan (he's actually 29) are better pitchers right now. Wagner and Ryan are just more dominating pitchers and that's what managers and fans like to see from closers. When closers can get that k it's exciting. Aside from that, it can bail pitchers out of trouble. And with Hoffman giving up more hits lately and getting less k's it'll be harder from him to bail himself out. One thing I don't understand is that Hoffman could be considered a better pitcher than Wagner. Put the saves aside. Who's been more dominant over their career? It's Wagner.

Wagner

IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
630.1 409 182 168 59 217 840 2.40 0.99 .183


Hoffman

IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
822.1 627 280 252 74 237 915 2.76 1.05 .208

The Padres should sign Hoffman no matter what though because it sounds like he's fan favorite, but there's no way I'd take him over Wagner or Ryan.


I agree that Wagner's a better pitcher right now but you're comparing two different beasts. Hoffman's gone through the decline phase of his career, Wagner's at his peak. A comparison of Hoffman and Wagner up to the age of 30 (31? Whatever age Wagner is now) would be more relevant.
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Postby blankman » Wed Nov 02, 2005 3:28 pm

DK wrote:
bronxxbomber wrote:I agree with the people who say wagner and ryan (he's actually 29) are better pitchers right now. Wagner and Ryan are just more dominating pitchers and that's what managers and fans like to see from closers. When closers can get that k it's exciting. Aside from that, it can bail pitchers out of trouble. And with Hoffman giving up more hits lately and getting less k's it'll be harder from him to bail himself out. One thing I don't understand is that Hoffman could be considered a better pitcher than Wagner. Put the saves aside. Who's been more dominant over their career? It's Wagner.

Wagner

IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
630.1 409 182 168 59 217 840 2.40 0.99 .183


Hoffman

IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
822.1 627 280 252 74 237 915 2.76 1.05 .208

The Padres should sign Hoffman no matter what though because it sounds like he's fan favorite, but there's no way I'd take him over Wagner or Ryan.


I agree that Wagner's a better pitcher right now but you're comparing two different beasts. Hoffman's gone through the decline phase of his career, Wagner's at his peak. A comparison of Hoffman and Wagner up to the age of 30 (31? Whatever age Wagner is now) would be more relevant.


Wagner's no young guy in his "prime." He's 34.

Granted Mariano Rivera did have a career year at 35, but Wagner at 34 is more relevant than you're making it out to be.
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