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Postby Yoda » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:04 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Yoda wrote:This is a worthless argument. I can't possible argue with people who would rather take Wagner and Ryan over Hoffman.


Hoffman at 38, versus Wagner now. Wagner is better. You would rather have a 3 era guy to a 1.5 era guy? I know, you only care about saves, which is a very misleading stat. But if we check the last 3, 4, or 5 years, Wagner has more. I know Hoffman missed 03, but people are saying Wagner is brittle, while Hoffman is out there every day. The brittle Wagner throws 75,77 innings, to Hoffmans 55-60. Wagner crushed Hoffman this yeat in win shares, as in era, K/9, avg against, etc. But Hoffman at THIS point in time is better?


So while you are at it, give us all the reasons why Ryan is better than Hoffman.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:07 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
wrveres wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
wrveres wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote: We aren't discussing career here.


In Hoffmans case we are ..

Are you telling me you would let Rivera walk over a few million and bring in Ryan as un proven, or Wagner and his recent injury history?


wrveres, go reread my posts. I said that the Padres should keep Hoffman. I'd expect and want the Yankees to keep Rivera in the same situation.

Fair enough ...

BronXBombers51 wrote:Yoda said that Hoffman is the best FA closer available though. That is what I disagreed with. Ryan and Wagner are both better options IMO. Hoffman is the right person for SD, because he is the face of the franchise, and the organization would take a big hit if he were to leave.

In no way am I saying the Pads should ignore Hoffman and go sign Ryan.

Even still, Trevor is the only proven commodity in the arguement here.
Wagner has injury concerns and Ryan is far from a proven.
I'd Take trevor over the other two in heart beat!
At least I know what I am getting.


But do you know what you're getting? HOOTIE already showed that his numbers are declining. He's 38 years old and injury HAS to be a concern at that age, despite his fairly clean history.

Sure Hoffman has a better track record...few have a better track record than Trevor in their career. Wagner and Ryan have proven themselves to be dominating pitchers. They are both young and haven't shown signs of decline like Hoffman has.

It's absolutely nothing against Hoffman, he's still a good option. I just want the younger more dominant guys.


A) they aren't both young .. one is 30 and the other is 35. a little younger than Hoffman sure but not children here. One is 35 and spent the last two seasons on the DL ..

B) I haven't seen anybody show evidence that Hoffman is slowing down.

* His Save % is the same as it has been for years (the best in baseball)
* His Whip is the same it has been for the past decade.
* His K/9 was down just a touch this year but ..
* His BB/9 has dropped dramtically over the last couple of seasons.

looks like the same Trevor of old to me.
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Postby blankman » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:14 pm

So much for "Hoffman becoming the highest paid closer" huh DM?

Can't believe you thought that would happen. :-b
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:14 pm

Yoda wrote:I'm actually not being a homer at all. A perfectly fine closer with immaculate history shoudl not be discounted just cuz he is 38. He hasn't shown any sign of slowing down and he's been the face of the franchise for how many years now? I don't think they should sign him at 9M for 3 years but I also find it laughable how everyone thinks he is worth no more than 6M for 2 years. As a comparison Wagner made 9M in 05.


Hasn't shown any signs of slowing down?

ERA+ age 28-31: 197
ERA+ age 33-37: 140
K/9 from 1996-2005, excluding injured year in 2003:
11.4, 12.3, 10.6, 9.8, 10.6, 9.4, 10.5, 8.7, 8.4
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Postby wrveres » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:18 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Yoda wrote:This is a worthless argument. I can't possible argue with people who would rather take Wagner and Ryan over Hoffman.


Hoffman at 38, versus Wagner now. Wagner is better. You would rather have a 3 era guy to a 1.5 era guy? I know, you only care about saves, which is a very misleading stat. But if we check the last 3, 4, or 5 years, Wagner has more. I know Hoffman missed 03, but people are saying Wagner is brittle, while Hoffman is out there every day. The brittle Wagner throws 75,77 innings, to Hoffmans 55-60. Wagner crushed Hoffman this yeat in win shares, as in era, K/9, avg against, etc. But Hoffman at THIS point in time is better?


what are you talking about Hootie ?

Hoffman had more saves than Wagner this year ... Last year ... and every single year that the two have been closers ... what a joke.

You pick the one year that Hoffman misses a season and turn around and say that Wagner has more saves .. ?
Talk about using using selective stats ..


how about this

in their entire careers ... Billy Injured Wagner has never saved more games than Trevor Hoffman in ANY given season ... Not one.

as matter of fact Billy has only one season where he saved more than 40 games. Trevor did that feat this year, and last year .. as a matter of fact, it is a feat he has completed 7 times in his career.

:-t :-t :-t

this arguement is getting real old ..
I realize that most of you don't know what goes on West of the Misssippi, but Billy Wagner is, was, and will never be the closer Hoffman is
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Postby wrveres » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:19 pm

blankman wrote:So much for "Hoffman becoming the highest paid closer" huh DM?

Can't believe you thought that would happen. :-b


can i blue card him for instigatin?
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:21 pm

Wrveres, from reading your argument, it looks like you're defending Hoffman's career. Wagner is nowhere near the closer Hoffman is for his career. I just feel that Wagner is the better pitcher right now, everything considered.

Career-wise, it's as you said. Wagner isn't in Hoffman's class.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:26 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:Wrveres, from reading your argument, it looks like you're defending Hoffman's career. Wagner is nowhere near the closer Hoffman is for his career. I just feel that Wagner is the better pitcher right now, everything considered.

Career-wise, it's as you said. Wagner isn't in Hoffman's class.


yes and no ..

Yes, because it is time to pay Hoffman for his career services ..

NO, because using the stats that matter FOR closers, Sv's and SV% ... Hoffman was clearly the better closer over the last two seasons.
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Postby blankman » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:26 pm

At some point, you've got to go with age and if I'm any other team than SD, Ryan and Wagner are much better options. They were both better last season and won't be 41 at the end of the deal.

Giles is the better signing no doubt, but SD does need to keep Hoffman for PR sake.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:29 pm

Hoffman can still pitch. I don't agree he's the same guy he always was, or even in the last decade.

In last decade, this was his 8th worst era.
9th worst era+.
It tied for his 7th worst whip.
It was his worst baa since 93.
Worst K/9 of decade.
His decline is very small, but still it's there.

Can he pitch now. Of course. Is there reason to worry? Well, there's always a bit of concern at 38. No one knows when a player will hit a big decline. RJ sure took a big drop from his norm this year. I'm not bashing Hoffman btw. A 2 year deal is fine. 3 years and 8-9 mil is overpaying. If he was 35 sure. But at year 3 he will be 40. And yes i like Wagner better. Wagner is near unhittable, posting 2 sub 2 era seasons lately.
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