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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:28 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:reyes is good, but i'd take furcal, jeter, and rollins over him right now. reyes doesn't have much power yet and the fact he can't walk doesn't help. rollins, furcal, and jeter will all have 15+ hrs, 110+ runs and 30+ sbs.


Furcal hit 15+ homers once.
Rollins has never done it.
Jeter does it consistently, but has only stolen 30+ bases two out of ten seasons.

So, it's likely to be more like 10-15 HRs for Rollins with 35-45 SBs, and 110-120 runs
10-15 HRs for Furcal with 35-45 SBs, and 100-110 runs
15-20 HRs for Jeter, with 15-20 SBs, and 115-125 runs for Jeter
and
5-12 HRs for Reyes, with 55-70 SBs, and 100-110 runs.

Reyes gets the nod because of those SBs (which people tend to undevalue) and the fact that as the youngest, he's the most likely to have a large increase in his stats.
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Postby BravesGuy » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:38 pm

K, I moved Guillen over Adams.

Good point GotowarMissAgnes. But what about AVG and OPS?

Jeter(31 yrs old) has a .308 AVG and a .835 OPS over the last 3 seasons.
Furcal(27 yrs old) .285 AVG and .776 OPS
Rollins(27 yrs old) .280 AVG and .760 OPS
Reyes(22 yrs old) .277 AVG and .698 OPS

I know you cant really use the whole "over the last 3 seasons" thing with Reyes b/c last year was his 1st full year. What are your thoughts on this?
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Postby San D » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:11 pm

I'm bullish on Crosby and would bump him up a tier. He showed nice contact rate improvement, is young (26 next year), and even though his HR's went down, his AVG and slugging percentage went up!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:41 pm

BravesGuy wrote:K, I moved Guillen over Adams.

Good point GotowarMissAgnes. But what about AVG and OPS?

Jeter(31 yrs old) has a .308 AVG and a .835 OPS over the last 3 seasons.
Furcal(27 yrs old) .285 AVG and .776 OPS
Rollins(27 yrs old) .280 AVG and .760 OPS
Reyes(22 yrs old) .277 AVG and .698 OPS

I know you cant really use the whole "over the last 3 seasons" thing with Reyes b/c last year was his 1st full year. What are your thoughts on this?


Reyes ranked ahead of Rollins, Furcal, and Jeter last year, with that average and OPS, because of his huge advantage in SBs.

I don't see that SB advantage shrinking, and I would expect Reyes to make up some ground in BA and OPS.

Unless you see Reyes running a lot less or Furcal and Rollins running a lot more, I don't see how you can rank Reyes behind them.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:40 pm

i know rollins, jeter, and furcal can score a lot. i'm not convinced that reyes can do that same. he really doesn't get on base well. and stealing 60+ and score over 100 runs requires you to be on base. ok, maybe the jeter sbs was farfetched :-b , but i just have to hate on reyes stays healthy a little longer and maybe works a walk.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Oct 30, 2005 5:15 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:i know rollins, jeter, and furcal can score a lot. i'm not convinced that reyes can do that same. he really doesn't get on base well. and stealing 60+ and score over 100 runs requires you to be on base. ok, maybe the jeter sbs was farfetched :-b , but i just have to hate on reyes stays healthy a little longer and maybe works a walk.


I hear you on the OBP, but Reyes scored 99 runs and stole 62 bases last year, and that was with Matsui batting behind him. I don't see any reason for his OBP to drop or for the #2 hitter for the Mets to be any worse than Matsui was. Furcal scored 130 runs in 2003, but then scored 95, 103, and 100 in 2002, 2004, and 2005. I can't see that he has any runs advantage over Reyes. Jeter does, but he's got no chance of matching Reyes on SBs.

You have to remember that there are usually half as many SBs as HRs. So, if Reyes has a 20 SB advantage, these other guys would have to hit 40 more HRs than he does to match that impact. There's just little chance that either of the three will so dominate him in HRs, Runs, or the other stats to make up the SB disadvantage they have.
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