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Somehow I'm not really Surprised.

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Postby RugbyD » Fri Oct 28, 2005 11:21 am

Coppermine wrote:Also, the Olduvai Theory is quite interesting. You can read about it here:

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

It's pretty stuffy so in a nutshell, the theory states that our fuel resources are quickly declining... although production has been increasing steadily, because of population growth in industrializing nations, the oil per capita is in sharp decline.

The theory says that by the year 2025, and with population growth remaining as steady as it is, we will have exhausted our oil supply. Subsequent to that point, civilization will revert to a pre-industrial revolution economy.

Yikes! :-P


This is baseless alarmism, pure and simple. The same theory has been rehashed again and again over the past 120+ years since oil was first 'discovered'/useful. its main failure has always been that it fails to take into account new exploration and advancements in technology that have always led to greater and greater proven reserves and production capability. Those interested should read "The Prize". Fantastic book about the history of oil.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:11 pm

RugbyD wrote:
Coppermine wrote:Also, the Olduvai Theory is quite interesting. You can read about it here:

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

It's pretty stuffy so in a nutshell, the theory states that our fuel resources are quickly declining... although production has been increasing steadily, because of population growth in industrializing nations, the oil per capita is in sharp decline.

The theory says that by the year 2025, and with population growth remaining as steady as it is, we will have exhausted our oil supply. Subsequent to that point, civilization will revert to a pre-industrial revolution economy.

Yikes! :-P


This is baseless alarmism, pure and simple. The same theory has been rehashed again and again over the past 120+ years since oil was first 'discovered'/useful. its main failure has always been that it fails to take into account new exploration and advancements in technology that have always led to greater and greater proven reserves and production capability. Those interested should read "The Prize". Fantastic book about the history of oil.


Yeah, I was gonna say thats complete bunk. The supply of oil isnt an issue other than the conrols put on by OPEC.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:13 pm

RugbyD wrote:
Coppermine wrote:I was listening to NPR the other day and I heard an interesting story about hybrid cars and their cost-effectiveness.

An economist, who is also an environmentalist, wanted to buy a hybrid car. He knew he would be paying a premium for the technology, but he wondered if buying the hybrid would be cost effective in the long run.

I don't remember the actual numbers, but he found that the premium price of the hybrid and money he saves on fuel are unbalanced... specifically, he would be paying much more for the hybrid than if he got a fuel-friendly gasoline car.

Specifically, I think he compared the hybrid civic and the gasoline civic. I he would have to drive the hybrid car for 8 years at $3.00/gallon to just break even.

He suggested waiting a few years for the price of hybrid technology to come down.


From what i've read, for normal yearly usage over a normal period of time, the higher price you pay for a hybrid would be the same as paying $9.00+ per gallon for a similar-sized regular car over the same period of time.


Wow - I guess I havent even looked into pricing them - are hybrids really that much more expensive? I had no idea. I mean, it seems logical due to the new technology, but even still... wow.

I guess I'll wait on my hybrid then. ;-)
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:23 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Wow - I guess I havent even looked into pricing them - are hybrids really that much more expensive? I had no idea. I mean, it seems logical due to the new technology, but even still... wow.

I guess I'll wait on my hybrid then. ;-)
When I was looking the at 2005 Ford Escapes the difference was 8-10K more. I'd wait for the tax break in 2006 before getting a hybrid.
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Postby RugbyD » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:24 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
RugbyD wrote:
Coppermine wrote:I was listening to NPR the other day and I heard an interesting story about hybrid cars and their cost-effectiveness.

An economist, who is also an environmentalist, wanted to buy a hybrid car. He knew he would be paying a premium for the technology, but he wondered if buying the hybrid would be cost effective in the long run.

I don't remember the actual numbers, but he found that the premium price of the hybrid and money he saves on fuel are unbalanced... specifically, he would be paying much more for the hybrid than if he got a fuel-friendly gasoline car.

Specifically, I think he compared the hybrid civic and the gasoline civic. I he would have to drive the hybrid car for 8 years at $3.00/gallon to just break even.

He suggested waiting a few years for the price of hybrid technology to come down.


From what i've read, for normal yearly usage over a normal period of time, the higher price you pay for a hybrid would be the same as paying $9.00+ per gallon for a similar-sized regular car over the same period of time.


Wow - I guess I havent even looked into pricing them - are hybrids really that much more expensive? I had no idea. I mean, it seems logical due to the new technology, but even still... wow.

I guess I'll wait on my hybrid then. ;-)


Just like any other new technology, they will get better and cheaper and finally worth buying.
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Postby StlSluggers » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:26 pm

That may not be true anymore. This hyrbid can actually be purchased for under $20k, which is normal for a new car. There are even hybrid SUVs that are priced in the mid-$20s. So, if you're paying the same up-front cost for the car, the gas savings are only gravy, particularly in the long-term.

Personally, I don't buy new. I buy the "program" cars with an extended warranty. So, as long as one of those hybrids is available when the time comes for my next "new" car, I'll be looking hybrid.

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Postby Coppermine » Fri Oct 28, 2005 1:11 pm

StlSluggers wrote:That may not be true anymore. This hyrbid can actually be purchased for under $20k, which is normal for a new car. There are even hybrid SUVs that are priced in the mid-$20s. So, if you're paying the same up-front cost for the car, the gas savings are only gravy, particularly in the long-term.

Personally, I don't buy new. I buy the "program" cars with an extended warranty. So, as long as one of those hybrids is available when the time comes for my next "new" car, I'll be looking hybrid.

;-D


The Honda Insight uses antiquated hybrid technology though, doesn't it? I read that there's two kinds of hybrids.. series and parallel. Basically, in a parallel hybrid, both the gasoline and the batteries turn the engine. In a series, the gasoline powers a generator that, in turn, drives the transmission. So, a parellel hybrid, both the battery and the gasoline power the transmission... in a series, the gasoline never directly powers the transmission.

I'm not sure which is which, but the Insight is quickly going to the wayside while the Hybrid Civic picks up the market. And that car is more expensive.

I know you can qualify for tax breaks for driving a hybrid too, so I'm not sure how that comes into play. As was said though, it is fairly new technology and it will improve and come down in price as it becomes more marketable and easier to manufacture.
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