I think he should eventually hit around 20 HR's, but I don't ever see him being a huge power threat. Jackson hits a good amount of doubles, but he played in very hitter friendly parks that you would expect more power from then he showed if he was going to be a power threat. He is a hitter that is more geared to putting solid swings on the balls and not being fooled, then someone going up there to take huge hacks.
Don't know John Olerud's minor league numbers, but I can imagine Jackson maybe turning out like Olerud perhaps. That would be my guess.
FWIW, in this new salary, 26-team dynasty league I joined, I took over the DBacks w/ 8 initial keepers. Traded away Quentin along w/ a couple draft picks (late 1st rounder in subsequent draft and #7 overall in next year's prospect draft) for Helton -- the prospect draft will be missing a bunch of top prospects due to the initial keepers we have, eg. I kept all the top DBacks prospects, including Justin Upton, if/when he signs. And eventually, traded away Jackson for picks to help fill some holes w/ cheap young players -- I used one pick to grab Justin Huber to replace Jackson immediately after the trade.
i'd say more like 25 or 30 hr type seasons.. and i wouldn't write him off to make a jump and reach 40 a couple times... he's not a lightweight.. he can hit to all directions, and if he continues to show such great command of the strike-zone, balls will fly out
its happened before, he had a nice power surge in the AFL last year and led the league.. although AFL isn't always the best place to gage skills, i dont think its meaningless either... the power is there, but the high batting avg. seems to be more likely.. he could be a special player
comp - don mattingly with better on-base-percentage
Yah, but didn't they say similar things about Olerud? Sure, you've got guys like L Gonzo who went nuts one year, etc. Even Brady Anderson went nuts one year. So sure, it's *possible*, but likely? I wouldn't think so. I think Olerud's probably a good comparison. That's not to say Jackson won't have one or two 40-HR years in him, but I don't think one should expect that -- hope yes, but expect probably not.
Also, we still haven't talked about how much and/or whether his poor defense might affect his likelihood to put up the kind of great years being hoped for. He might end up not playing enough to fully develop as an everyday NL-er for all we know -- I suspect that's just as likely as him having one or two 40-HR years. He might not get that shot at 40 HRs until he switches leagues to AL. Everyone seems to be completely ignoring that possibility. It's certainly a part of the reason why I ended up trading him in one league (and replacing him w/ Huber instead).
Unlike Olerud, Jackson won't have good defense in his favor to help him out.
Last edited by Sultans of Squat on Fri Oct 28, 2005 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Sultans of Squat wrote:Yah, but didn't they say similar things about Olerud? Sure, you've got guys like L Gonzo who went nuts one year, etc. Even Brady Anderson went nuts one year. So sure, it's *possible*, but likely? I wouldn't think so. I think Olerud's probably a good comparison. That's not to say Jackson won't have one or two 40-HR years in him, but I don't think one should expect that -- hope yes, but expect probably not.
fair enough .. but i do expect him to be a real nice player .. and hit over 25 regularly.. i like the Olerud comparison, but with a tad more hr's, and i agree the only big difference is probly their defense... but i dont think his defense is completely hopeless .. you don't have to be a wizard to play 1B, so if he can't stay in the OF, i dont think it will kill him