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Looking at Win Shares

Postby J35J » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 pm

I came across a small discussion on Win Shares at a different site and knew that some of you like to look at WS. The thing I don't really remember being discussed here is looking at WS per plate appearance. For example: Player A has 22 WS in 700 PA compared to Player B has 21 WS in 550 PA. Wouldn't looking at it like that give you more accuracy with WS if you had a calculation of WS/plate appearances or something to that affect? Anyway, let me know what you think or if you guys do look at it in this way.

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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:23 pm

I like the idea of calculating WS based on plate appearances. It seems logical to me, then again I dont have an abundance of knowlegde on the win share system--just the basics.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:29 pm

The problem with just looking at WS per PA is that it ignores the importance of durability. If one guy misses a third of the season by injury, while another guy plays 162 games, then the second may be more valuable, even if he produces at a lower rate per game.

It's the age old, peak performance versus longevity issue.
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Re: Looking at Win Shares

Postby blankman » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:29 pm

J35J wrote:I came across a small discussion on Win Shares at a different site and knew that some of you like to look at WS. The thing I don't really remember being discussed here is looking at WS per plate appearance. For example: Player A has 22 WS in 700 PA compared to Player B has 21 WS in 550 PA. Wouldn't looking at it like that give you more accuracy with WS if you had a calculation of WS/plate appearances or something to that affect? Anyway, let me know what you think or if you guys do look at it in this way.

Jason


Perhaps it would, and it does surely account for injuries, but the main use, here at least, of Win Shares is judging what players brought the most value to their team in the team's 162 games by their onfield performance. Injuries are a part of the game and there is something to be said for players that can play the entire season. In discussions like MVP's and other awards, where we most often see WS used here, it should be a reflection of what the player brought over the entire season.
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Postby J35J » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:31 pm

These are all good points but what about guys at the top of the lineup compared to guys in the middle. Like Ichiro is going to have a ton more plate appearances than someone who bats 5th in another lineup and even if they both play 162 games Ichiro will have 100 or more PA more than likley.

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Postby blankman » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:45 pm

J35J wrote:This is all good points but what about guys at the top of the lineup compared to guys in the middle. Like Ichiro is going to have a ton more plate appearances than someone who bats 5th in another lineup and even if they both play 162 games Ichiro will have 100 or more PA more than likley.

Jason


That's simply not the case.

Derek Jeter led the league in plate appearances with 752.
Alex Rodriguez, who played every game and hit 4th most of the season had 715.
Matsui, who also played 162 and batted 5th, had 704.
-Not a huge difference there.

David Ortiz, recorded more PA than his leadoff hitter, Johnny Damon because he played more games.

Derek Lee led the Cubs in PA.


Obviously there is a bias toward hitters batting earlier in the order. There is no question about that, but it is a reflection of how good the player is in the first place. The PA difference is really not nearly what you claim it to be and it doesn't change their value over the entire season.

You can only provide value to your team when you are playing, so to project out numbers is unrealistic.
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Postby J35J » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:15 pm

blankman wrote:
J35J wrote:This is all good points but what about guys at the top of the lineup compared to guys in the middle. Like Ichiro is going to have a ton more plate appearances than someone who bats 5th in another lineup and even if they both play 162 games Ichiro will have 100 or more PA more than likley.

Jason


That's simply not the case.

Derek Jeter led the league in plate appearances with 752.
Alex Rodriguez, who played every game and hit 4th most of the season had 715.
Matsui, who also played 162 and batted 5th, had 704.
-Not a huge difference there.

David Ortiz, recorded more PA than his leadoff hitter, Johnny Damon because he played more games.

Derek Lee led the Cubs in PA.


Obviously there is a bias toward hitters batting earlier in the order. There is no question about that, but it is a reflection of how good the player is in the first place. The PA difference is really not nearly what you claim it to be and it doesn't change their value over the entire season.

You can only provide value to your team when you are playing, so to project out numbers is unrealistic.


I'm not trying to argue, just bring stuff up. Anyway, I don't think looking at guys from the same team is the way to look at it. You say Jeter has 752 PA but what about looking at guys from different teams who had poorer offenses, like a Carlos Lee who played all 162 games but only had 688 PA or better yet someone off a bad offensive team like KC. Emil Brown played in 150 games and only had 608 PA, correlate that out to 162 gams he would have had something like 650 - 660. So no it may not be quite as high as I figured off the top of my head but I don't consider a guy who plays 150-155 games a year an injury concern type of a guy so if you look at it like that the 608 PA E. Brown got is well over 100 PA less than a Jeter or Arod. Anyway just throwing some ideas out there.

Jason
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