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Delmon Young, where should he go in a keeper draft?

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Postby cordscords » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:22 am

Cleveland Steamers wrote:Delmon Young is sure to be a stud which will push him to the middle rounds in almost every keeper draft. If you dont take the chance on him, someone else will. Heres an article I wrote on him in the middle of this season...

Delmon Young is already considered a rare player. A player that has the capability to lead a team in almost every category, from power to assists. A player most anyone would classify as a five-tool talent. Young may not be known solely for his speed and stolen bases, but this quality is what may make him a top 20 fantasy outfielder as soon as next year. Currently, Young hasn’t had his first taste of the big leagues but may see some at bats as soon as mid August. Since he has yet to make an appearance at the major league level, Young is not available in most standard online fantasy leagues (unless your league does minor league drafting, a.k.a. dynasty format). In the event he gets the call this year, Young may not be quite ready to help your team in dramatic fashion, but do NOT let that stop you from doing whatever you can to obtain him if you’re in a keeper league. Giving him a roster spot for the rest of the season should pay large dividends as soon as next year. With many scouts projecting future 30/30+ seasons, his future value is immense. If he is able to put up 30/30 numbers in the near future, his value will be right on par with that of consensus first round players. There are currently only 31 players on pace for 30+ home runs and an even fewer amount, 16, on pace for 30+ stolen bases. How many players are on pace for a 30/30 season? Try one, Bobby Abreu. Both homeruns and stolen bases are major factors in determining a player’s fantasy value, but by no means do the two categories make a player (see Mike Cameron). In addition to Young’s power and speed, he has shown the ability to hit for average and drive in runs. In Young’s 1+ year of minor league ball, he has compiled an average of .327 in over 850 at bats. For those more impressed by slugging percentage and on base percentage, his numbers check out accordingly (around .380/.550). These stats are some of the reasons scouts rave about his knowledge of the strike zone and his amazing bat control, just two of the things that help maintain offensive percentage stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS). When a player has the ability to hit for average and power, the RBI and runs will come in bunches. If Young’s minor league stats are taken down to a cumulative 500 at bats, mixing the three leagues in which he has played, it would look something like this:

Ave. R HR RBI SB
.327 89 26 109 26

If those numbers are not impressive, let’s compare his numbers to the young minor league stats of Vladimir Guerrerro, Andruw Jones, and Corey Patterson.

A Ball

AB/HR AB/RBI AB/SB AVE OBP SLG BB/K
Young (18) 20.53 4.46 24.43 .322 .388 .538 .44
Guerrero (19) 26.31 6.68 35.08 .333 .381 .544 .7
Jones (18) 21.48 5.37 9.59 .277 .365 .512 .6
Patterson (19) 23.75 6.0 14.4 .320 .358 .592 .3


AA Ball
AB/HR AB/RBI AB/SB AVE OBP SLG BB/K
Young 16.52 4.65 13.2 .336 .386 .582 .38
Guerrero 21.95 5.35 24.53 .360 .432 .612 1.2
Jones 13.08 4.84 14.83 .339 .420 - .62
Patterson 20.18 5.41 16.44 .261 .334 .491 .4

These players represent stats, leagues, and ages near that of Delmon Young during the first two years of professional baseball. There are obvious similarities in all the players listed above. The difference between Guerrero, Jones, and Patterson are the developments they have made since their first two years. Guerrero, a consensus top four pick in this year’s drafts, has obviously adjusted to the major leagues quite well. His ability to grow up in a low pressure situation like the Expos may have helped his development. If the low pressure situation is something that allows an ease of adjustment, Young couldn’t pick a better team to play for. The Devil Rays have no expectations, lowering the pressure on Young when he finally makes his debut. Jones has been an effective player with rather consistent numbers year after year. Not a bad player for comparison since Jones was built much like Young, strong but thin. Since his minor league days, Jones has gained a few vanity pounds which has greatly affected his ability to steal bases. If Young takes to the Barry Bonds/Andruw Jones diet, you can say goodbye to his ability to run. A possible worst case scenario would have Young’s career start like Corey Patterson. Patterson is said to have been a victim of the early call-up. In the major leagues, Patterson has never really reached his potential. This could be attributed to a variety of things but the main issue is his patience. As you can see by the BB/K ratios above, Patterson has had a problem with free swinging in the past and has carried the problem throughout his career with the Cubs. The most disturbing comparison is the likeness of Patterson and Young’s BB/K ratios. If Young is to succeed at the next level, he must develop more patience while at the plate. Successful minor leaguers, such as Patterson, tend to have trouble at the next level when they continue to strikeout at such a high rate, all while taking very few walks. You can see that Guerrero has always carried great patience at the plate (in terms of BB/K), though Guerrero tends to hit anything thrown in his direction. Like Young, all exhibited great promise, power, and speed. We have a few years before we see whether Young will begin migrating toward total power hitter (Jones), or continue to be a 5 tool player in the footsteps of players like Abreu and Guerrero. If he continues to improve and develops more patience, Young should progress into an MVP candidate for years to come. His ability is irrefutable. He definitely has the talent to give the Devil Rays a huge boost in the future and should fit in nicely with the plethora of young talent the Devil Rays possess. While the Devil Rays can afford to wait for Young, you shouldn’t. Make sure you do whatever you can to obtain him for your keeper league, as his value could be skyrocketing as soon as the 2006 fantasy drafts.

-Denny Foster


Great stuff. I'd take him in the middle rounds. I'll take a small sacrifice 1 year, to make sure I've got gold for years to come.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:50 am

delmon is definitely worth a mid round flier especially in keeper leagues... even with the uncertainities of his playing time this year,, his future numbers should be so great that he will be worth the gamble.... i am pretty sure someone will probably be grabbing him near round 12 or so
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Postby BravesGuy » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:07 am

Music2004Man wrote:Bravesguy,
How deep is your keeper league? I think his position in the draft depends on how many guys you can keep at the end of the year.


12 teams. We keep quite a bit of players, 6 bats and 6 pitchers

....oh and Cleveland Steamers, impressive post!
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:39 am

raiders_umpire wrote:delmon is definitely worth a mid round flier especially in keeper leagues... even with the uncertainities of his playing time this year,, his future numbers should be so great that he will be worth the gamble.... i am pretty sure someone will probably be grabbing him near round 12 or so


I agree with Raiders. Mid rounds are where you should start taking some chances. I consider top 10 picks to be your building blocks. Then start picking up guys with high upsides.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:48 am

I know Ill be doing what I can to get him in keeper leagues...most likely mid round. If I wait too late, I may just have to overpay in the beginning of the season when his owner may be questioning whether he'll get the callup.
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Postby Music2004Man » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:40 pm

Bravesguy,

With 12 keepers I'm gonna say that you should go after him fairly early in your draft. I would say somewhere between picks 3-6. With so many keepers you are going to have to go after him fairly early. It's possible for you to keep 4 stud hitters every year and then have two young guys that will develop. My suggestion would be to go after him fairly early in your draft.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:28 pm

I wouldnt suggest rounds 3-6. Good value players can be had from rounds 3-6. David Wright went in approx round 6-8 last year. Closer to round 6 last year in keepers and he was a major league proven young player. I would say wait to round 7 at the earliest for Young. Any earlier than that and youre really taking a big risk in screwing up your 2006 season to have a great keeper. The best thing you could probably do is wait to round 10. If he is there, take him in round 9 or 10. If he has already been taken, wait the first couple of weeks of the season when he is still in AAA and trade for him. Hopefully the owner thinks he is sitting on a guy like Upton, who has been touted for quite sometime but cant find his way to the majors...
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Postby BravesGuy » Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:52 pm

I will get him around 9 or 10 like Cleveland said. I can't see taking him over a proven player in rounds 3-6, but I will take him over a 10th rounder....
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Postby baseball6791 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:07 pm

Yoda wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:delmon is definitely worth a mid round flier especially in keeper leagues... even with the uncertainities of his playing time this year,, his future numbers should be so great that he will be worth the gamble.... i am pretty sure someone will probably be grabbing him near round 12 or so


I agree with Raiders. Mid rounds are where you should start taking some chances. I consider top 10 picks to be your building blocks. Then start picking up guys with high upsides.


I agree with rump too. Delmon could easily outproduce a mid-round caliber current major leaguer this year and will definitely be stud in the coming years. I think that taking him ahead of a catcher or mid tier SP is a smart thing to do, just make sure you don't overpay for him.
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Postby Music2004Man » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:41 pm

I'm sorry for the confusion guys. I was just saying that he should be taken in round 3-6 after the keepers. This equates to rounds 15-18 because the league has 12 keepers.
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