PlayingWithFire wrote:Supposedly Yahoo public setting. I know it's early but those guys aren't likely to go anywhere else
Randy Johnson(I am expecting a bounce back, he wasn't healthy the whole year. I personally wouldn't take him in the first round. What you think?)
I'm gonna say that this is the beginning of the end for RJ. He began to slip this year and it's only going to continue next year. I don't think there's much of a precedent for rebounding at the age of 42. I can't see him going in the first round. Here are 11 pitchers I would take before him off the top of my head (and in no particular order)....... Santana Peavy Halladay Pedro Oswalt Sheets Harden Zambrano Prior Willis Carpenter
Jim Thome(he'll fall like a rock, 6th round? later?)
I think he falls later than that to be honest. Howard did a great job filling in for him and from what I hear Thome's injury is degenerative so I don't see a big rebound for him. It's actually alittle early to predict where he should be picked because if he gets traded to the AL his value rises slightly.
Eric Gagne(tell me what current closer you will take AFTER Gagne)
Way to early to tell where he will be drafted because we aren't sure how healthy he will be at the beginning of next year. Here are some closers I would take before him though.....
Rivera Nathan Wagner Lidge KRod
Atleast until we see what he can do when he comes back.
Barry Bonds(back to top 10 overall?) I think you are too high on him. The Giants have said that at the most he'll probably play 120 games next year. He's too old and way too fragile to be in the first round next year. He could still put up 30 HR's in 120 games but you need more production from that to merit first round consideration.
Todd Helton(I think he's definitely worth a 2nd rounder) He had an absolutely torrid 2nd half so he should be a solid pick for next year. You have to remember that even in that ballpark he's not getting much help from the rest of his team. I'm not sure if he still merits a 2nd round pick. Here are a couple of 1b I would take ahead of him..... Pujols Ortiz Teixeira Lee
I would say 3rd or possibly the 4th round for him.
Curt Schilling(8th round?) Schilling gets many of the same comments as RJ. He's getting older and still rehabbing from that injury it seems. He didn't seem to be himself when he came back. Keep an eye on him in spring training because I think the 8th could be close for him but you might have to reach alittle more depending on how he looks in the spring.
Aubrey Huff(he'll drop after losing the 3B eligibility, but how far?) I think he definitely drops in the draft by losing 3b eligibility. How far he slips depends on where he ends up after the offseason. If he ends up in Boston or with the Cubs I would say that his value comes up some but it's still really early to be able to tell right now.
Paul Konerko Konerko could be very solid going into next year. He's one of only a few guys who are working off of consecutive 40 HR seasons. It really depends on where he ends up next year and the type of protection he will get in his new lineup. As with many of the people that you have mentioned here it's too early to tell and you should really wait to see what happens in the offseason.
Sorry Playing With Fire. I hope you don't mind that I added my thoughts right into your post. I'm new with using the quote option and thought it would be easiest if my thoughts were right next to your analysis.
PlayingWithFire wrote:Supposedly Yahoo public setting. I know it's early but those guys aren't likely to go anywhere else
Randy Johnson(I am expecting a bounce back, he wasn't healthy the whole year. I personally wouldn't take him in the first round. What you think?)
Jim Thome(he'll fall like a rock, 6th round? later?)
Eric Gagne(tell me what current closer you will take AFTER Gagne)
Barry Bonds(back to top 10 overall?)
Todd Helton(I think he's definitely worth a 2nd rounder)
Curt Schilling(8th round?)
Aubrey Huff(he'll drop after losing the 3B eligibility, but how far?)
Paul Konerko
Randy Johnson is far from a 1st Rounder at this point in his career. 2nd or 3rd Round is where I expect he'll go, but I'd probably even still pass on him there.
Jim Thome's value has taken a major, major hit. Later than the 6th Round, for me.
I'd take... some of the CBC relievers after Gagne. I generally rely on Waivers to fill any Closer voids in any given season. This is probably the least of your worries. Also entirely too early to be thinking about this, IMO.
Bonds - no.
Helton - 2nd Rounder, yes.
Schilling - TBD
Huff - has almost no value as an OF/1B, to me. There's a plethora of players at each position I'd rather, at this point.
Paul Konerko - depends where he ends up. I feel like I'm constantly waiting for him to let me down. He's yet to. Consequently, I've never had him on a fantasy team of mine. If I ever get him, beware, he's doomed.
RJ- 5th/6th (I would take him there)
Not me. One year older, and he wasnt healthy. He wont be on my draft list until the mid-pack pitcher grabs after the 9th.
Thome- 10th (I would take him there)
No. I may take a flyer on him in the later rounds depending on his health in ST. Even if healthy he may not even have a starting job next year unless he's traded.
Bonds- 2nd (I would pass)
See RJ.
Helton- 2nd (I would take him there)
Too high. Great 2nd half but overall mid-pack 1b. 6 or 7 maybe.
Schilling- 10th (I would pass)
See RJ.
Huff- 7th/8th (I would take him there)
Possibly. He shouldnt be washed up yet. I'd rate him around the 8th or 9th 1B right now
Konerko- 3rd (I would pass)[/quote]
Monster season last year. Maybe 4th or 5th for me.
PlayingWithFire wrote:Supposedly Yahoo public setting. I know it's early but those guys aren't likely to go anywhere else
Randy Johnson(I am expecting a bounce back, he wasn't healthy the whole year. I personally wouldn't take him in the first round. What you think?)
Jim Thome(he'll fall like a rock, 6th round? later?)
Eric Gagne(tell me what current closer you will take AFTER Gagne)
Barry Bonds(back to top 10 overall?)
Todd Helton(I think he's definitely worth a 2nd rounder)
Curt Schilling(8th round?)
Aubrey Huff(he'll drop after losing the 3B eligibility, but how far?)
Paul Konerko
RJ...stay away like the plague. There is no reason to spend high draft picks on pitchers at this point. Outside fo Santana, Oswalt and maybe C. Zambrano, none of them can be trusted to live up to their expectation level and/or avoid injury. RJ is a round 7-10 pick right now, imo.
Thome...no roids, injured, may split time and/or be traded. I would not get near him with a top 8 round pick at this point. Maybe if the reports out of ST are good, but right now, buyer beware.
Gagne...injury is a major concern...closers turned over at a roughly 50% rate this season. I see no reason to gamble on one that is hurt and coming off an injury. An Izzy can be had round 7-9 and is a safer play. Why would you pay for a healthy in his prime Gagne when he obviously is not healthy?
Bonds...The lieing, roid-boy has de-roided himself and his knee and gotten the blessing of his shady Dr. Ting. A likely round 4-7 pick but the risk/reqard ratio is not there, esp. if he only plays 120 games as is rumored.
Helton...a roid boy whose power is gone (10 hrs pre and post AS break). He is nothing more than a round 7-10 pick at this point as he is likely to post no beter than 310/25/100/85 imo. Rox blow and will continue to do so in 06. He has no roids to help him and Matt Holliday for protection.
Schilling...RJ only worse. Stay far far away and do not get taken out by a name pitcher that pitches like a #5 starter. Round 9-12 speculation only, imo based on injury reports.
Huff...numbers were nothing short of lousy this seasson. Round 12+ flier material assuming you want to hope he gets traded out of TB.
Konerko...pretty much proven he is the real deal. Depends on where he ends up, but round 4-6 is a reasonable guess.
I like Berkman alot as a player...always have. Man can hit.
He will likely go a bit cheaper than usual and would be an excelllent pickup anywhere from round 6 or later. He is a round 3-4 player if he stays healthy imo.
CON-treras. I jus can't recommend this guy. I know the numbers show a turn around, but I just can't.
PlayingWithFire wrote:Supposedly Yahoo public setting. I know it's early but those guys aren't likely to go anywhere else
Randy Johnson(I am expecting a bounce back, he wasn't healthy the whole year. I personally wouldn't take him in the first round. What you think?)
Jim Thome(he'll fall like a rock, 6th round? later?)
Eric Gagne(tell me what current closer you will take AFTER Gagne)
Barry Bonds(back to top 10 overall?)
Todd Helton(I think he's definitely worth a 2nd rounder)
Curt Schilling(8th round?)
Aubrey Huff(he'll drop after losing the 3B eligibility, but how far?)
Paul Konerko
RJ - RJ's value has been severely decreased after this year, but I still think that there will be at least one guy in every league who will take him around the 4th round, which I would say is too early for him and why I would pass. If he falls to the 7th round or later I might take a flier on him depending on my team so far.
Thome - I see Thome going way later than the 6th round if he stays on the Phillies; probably somewhere around the 10-12th. If he gets traded out of Philly (or Howard does) then I could see him going in the 6th round. Remember, just a year ago this was a guy who you would've expected close to 50 HRs from.
Gagne - Gagne is very much a high risk/reward guy. He will probably be a great sleeper in many drafts but I just don't know how effective he (or anyone else) who has had 2 major arm surgeries can be. I'm not a big fan of taking closers early anyways, but I would easily take Rivera, Nathan, K-Rod, Lidge, Wagner ahead of him and I could get guys with much less risk later or off WW.
Bonds - Top 10? Probably not. Late 2nd/Early 3rd? Yeah. It's hard to say how many games he will play but we know that if he is playing he will produce. If the Giants lineup can stay healthy he will probably have more protection that in past years, as well as more R and RBI opps. I probably wouldn't take the risk with him in the 2nd/3rd but I can see him going there. If he falls to the 4th/5th round I would pounce on him.
Helton - After his huge 2nd half I would put him in the mid 2nd round and you might end up getting a bit of a steal even there.
Schilling - I'm not touching him. Period. I don't care how far he drops, I really don't see him coming back. Its unfortunate because he's a great competitor, but I just don't think that he has it in him to be a fantasy producer. Let someone else take the risk on him and he will probably go much earlier than he should anyways.
Huff - Without 3B eligibilty Huff becomes a medoicre 1B/OF backup. He'll put up decent enough numbers but there are plenty of other guys at those positions who I would rather have. If I can get him late in the draft (10th round or later) then I'd grab him but otherwise no.
Konerko - Like everyone else has said, this depends in large part to where he ends up and what kind of protection he gets, but he is a guy who you can count on at this point for solid power numbers out of the 1B spot. I would be happy getting him in the late 3rd/early 4th
PlayingWithFire wrote:Supposedly Yahoo public setting. I know it's early but those guys aren't likely to go anywhere else
Randy Johnson(I am expecting a bounce back, he wasn't healthy the whole year. I personally wouldn't take him in the first round. What you think?)
Jim Thome(he'll fall like a rock, 6th round? later?)
Eric Gagne(tell me what current closer you will take AFTER Gagne)
Barry Bonds(back to top 10 overall?)
Todd Helton(I think he's definitely worth a 2nd rounder)
Curt Schilling(8th round?)
Aubrey Huff(he'll drop after losing the 3B eligibility, but how far?)
Paul Konerko
No way I would take RJ even if he was on form this year and had a bounce back year. If your hoping for a bounceback year take him mid 3rd to early 4th.
Gagne will probably be going around 5th-6th round if he comes back fully healthy(don't know the whole situation on that though), I know I won't get him though, I never take closers that early and is a reason why I've never owned Gagne on a team.
Barry should go top 12, he'll probably fall a bit though just because of a lot of uncertain people and numerous new young players breaking the 1st round.
Helton, I think he should have a bounceback year, probably same number of RBI's and R's but I think there will be an improvement in average and especially power. I say early 3rd, possibly late 2nd.
Schilling I'm staying away from personally, I say he'll go around the 6th or 7th because of his name and who he is, I say just let the dumber guys in your league get him.
Huff, 6th or 7th round as well IMO. I say he could have a better year and if he was on a better team that would raise him a couple rounds, plus as you said losing 3B eligibility hurts his value.
Konerko, early 5th late 4th, this guy is seriously underrated, I guess it's because 1B is so deep but he could be a great guy to get into your utility spot if you take a better 1st basemen earlier in the draft(which I figure a lot of people will). Have you seen what he's done in the playoffs? That's what he has done all year for the last couple years.
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by PlayingWithFire » Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:06 am 
