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Sabermetric Stats

Postby bronxxbomber » Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:15 pm

Where can I find these stats; vorp, win shares, etc.?
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Postby Amazinz » Wed Oct 12, 2005 1:30 pm

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Postby LooseCannon » Wed Oct 12, 2005 3:34 pm

HOw well-proven are these stats for ranking players?
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Oct 12, 2005 4:54 pm

LooseCannon wrote:HOw well-proven are these stats for ranking players?

I assume you mean fantasy? They're about as good as you can get as far as free, *relatively* simple, and readily availble real-life evaluations. Fantasy is based on stats (R, RBI, AVG, W, etc) that aren't weighed very heavily (if at all) into things like WS. So I guess to answer your question, it depends on the league. Unless you've somehow managed to find a setup that exactly mirrors real-life baseball, you're going to have varying degrees of success winning a league going just by "saber" rankings, and in 5x5, I doubt they would be extremely helpful at all. WS and VoRP are attempts to evaluate players in a neutral, non-lineup-influenced environment and fantasy is pretty much the complete opposite.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:29 pm

Can someone explain VORP and RC/27 to me? I understand the premis of WS although I do not know what the formula is (I know it's very complicated).

I have no idea what VORP is, and all it's adjustments (with defense, without defense, league adjusted, park adjusted, etc.)
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:09 pm

From the Baseball Prospectus website:
BP wrote:Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

It's basically how much a player A contributes above what an average bench, or AAAA player as it's referred to sometimes, player would contribute. The values can most certainly be negative, which means that a given player actually contributes less to his team than an average bench player would, though that is sometimes misleading because, as the definition says, it doesn't take into account defense. Though that's usually only an issue with catchers.

RC/27 is the runs-created (RC) of a particular player divided by 17 (number of outs in a game). It's (roughly) how many runs a player creates for his team over the course of a game.
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Postby Red Stripe » Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:22 pm

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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:41 pm

LooseCannon wrote:HOw well-proven are these stats for ranking players?


Are you talking ranking fantasy wise?
There is a big difference between fantasy, and looking at saber numbers. Dunn is a top saber player, but loses value in fantasy. Soriano is a top fantasy player, but loses value in saber.

RC/27 is a estimate of how many runs per game that a team made up of 9 of the same player would score.

DLee RC/27 was 10.02. AJones was 6.56.

Basically this tells you a lineup of 9 DLee's would score 10.02 runs per game, versus a lineup of 9 AJones at 6.56. The RC/27 avg hovers around 4.5 year to year, so you can see if a player is above or below it.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:50 pm

so what are the best saber stats to help evaluate a player in standard 5x5 leagues with 14 teams?
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:06 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:so what are the best saber stats to help evaluate a player in standard 5x5 leagues with 14 teams?


A 5x5 has avg/hr/runs/rbis/sb/era/whip/k/saves/w. Quite a few team dependent stats. I try to find if there was a luck factor involved in a players year. Hit rate% (hitters/pitchers), strand rate% can at least make you suspious of some stats.
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