What to make of Beltre?

[stumpak]

I agree with this. I see an almost Bobby Bonilla-like trajectory: general underacheivement interspersed with some years that are productive (with much better defense of course).

The issue with Beltre is that he he has played 7 seasons now, and there is a 100% track record of him producing ONLY under the following situations:

-Contract year

-He gets a wake-up call by being moved down the order (the Dodgers did this many times)

-He gets a wake-up call by his team importing a potential replacement (the Dodgers did this many times too)

-He gets a wake-up call by being threatened with benching (Dodgers had to resort to this in 03)

There is a long record of performance only under duress. This is why it boggled my mind last season when people claimed that he had a break-out year, that 1.000 OPS gusy never regress, etc etc. Beltre is a bird of a different color and the talent manifest itself fully only under particular conditions.

[pjalst]

What $ value would any of you put on Beltre in a Cap league using $260 as the Cap? is he a $1 pick up or a left over free agent grab?

[raiders_umpire]

Beltre in the 18th round?? I'll take him there in every league. If he drops as far as you predict in next years draft I'll take a chance on him for sure- the man's got the talent, he's just got to unlock it. I predict his second year in Seattle is going to make believers out of you guys.

I know I'm in the minority, but I feel this way as well. I don't think Beltre's the 48 HR beast we saw in 2004 (though we did see the potential for that is there), but I don't think he's his 2005 self either. I'm a believer in this kid, and I don't believe the playing for the contract BS for a second, either. If Beltre's around in Round 18, I'd take him with every team I owned. I wouldn't count on him as your #1 3B heading into 2006, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he cracks the Top 10 there for fantasy purposes in '06.

i agree with hort as well... take away arod, mcab, aram, wright, chipper, chavez,,,, and a case can be made to have beltre right after those guys along with rolen, huff, blalock, and ensberg.... so i definitely consider him a top 10 talent at 3b and would be glad to pick him up in round 12 or so in any draft next year....

[thedude]

Think about this year year was his second highest rbi total...

After 2004 his second highest homerun total is 23. He is a 260-20hr-75 rbi guy.

One more thing, before 2004 his batting average had declined 4 straight years. I hate to throw out allegations, but...

[bigjimblue]

You guys just don't get it! Free Agency. 2004 was his last year under contract to the Dodgers. Even though he was hurt he was playing hungry for a big contract. Then when he got it he went back to the pre 2004 Beltre. Free Agency makes all ball players better and some even more so!

[raiders_umpire]

You guys just don't get it! Free Agency. 2004 was his last year under contract to the Dodgers. Even though he was hurt he was playing hungry for a big contract. Then when he got it he went back to the pre 2004 Beltre. Free Agency makes all ball players better and some even more so!

the contract year play good theory has been proved wrong many more times then it has happened

[giants!]

I expect better numbers than 05, but playing half his game in safeco and with no lineup protection, i find it hard to believe he even approaches 04 form. 280- 25-90 is what id expect from him

[stumpak]

The contract theory has been proven wrong in general, but this does not mean that it is not a factor with specific players. As I have already iterated on this thread, there is a body of evidence that shows that Beltre performs at peak levels only when pressed, and certainly his contract year was one of these instances wen he was pressed. Everyone can name a few guys in every sport who are dogs when their jobs are not on the line; just because there is a rule does not mean that there are not exeptions to the rule.

[Absolutely Adequate]

you all crack me up ..

have you guys not learned how to handle Beltre yet?

You let somebody else draft him and then you trade for him at the beginning of July.

I thought everybody knew that

I don't know. I think wrveres is just trying to scare everyone away from Beltre here because many of his league-mates are regulars at the cafe.

This sort of subterfuge is frowned upon at the cafe, veres. And it won't help. Your parabola of failure will continue to slope downwards.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

I agree with this. I see an almost Bobby Bonilla-like trajectory: general underacheivement interspersed with some years that are productive (with much better defense of course).

The issue with Beltre is that he he has played 7 seasons now, and there is a 100% track record of him producing ONLY under the following situations:

-Contract year

-He gets a wake-up call by being moved down the order (the Dodgers did this many times)

-He gets a wake-up call by his team importing a potential replacement (the Dodgers did this many times too)

-He gets a wake-up call by being threatened with benching (Dodgers had to resort to this in 03)

There is a long record of performance only under duress. This is why it boggled my mind last season when people claimed that he had a break-out year, that 1.000 OPS gusy never regress, etc etc. Beltre is a bird of a different color and the talent manifest itself fully only under particular conditions.

So you dont think his poor seasons prior to 2004 had anything to do with the massive injuries he suffered or the fact that he was one of the alltime youngest players in MLB?

edited...
um... what I meant to say was that the prediction parabola for Beltre is directly associated with the predictors reliance on Beltre's motivational subterfuge.